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Andy

@awmark.bsky.social
837 followers 496 following 1.5K posts

Trying to find a decent Fiero with a ‘For Sale’ sign 📍ORD

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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 1h
Tabless dork
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 5h
Bloomington, IN an interesting outlier on this list of aggregate home price declines
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 9h
Check out the byline on this op-ed in Wapo this morning
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Reposted by Andy
George Pearkes @peark.es · 21h
Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.
September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield






Term Premium







-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
City of Chicago is in peak form today. Weather is flawless, Bears won, Cubs and Sox in the playoffs today. Autumn closin’ in.
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Reposted by Andy
Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Rates, boy, I don’t know
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
IRS going to destroy AQR’s business
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Great pod, but imo financial limits are a clumsy proxy for the ultimate question of who should be allowed to own clubs. State-owned (or proxied) clubs are the concern, so vet existing and new owners harder instead of capping the spending that made the league the epicenter of global football
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Reposted by Andy
Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Every French presidential poll LADY HITLER - 35% JEAN D'AUSTÉRITÉ - 18% CHUD COMMUNISTE - 17%
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Rates, boy, I don’t know
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Niche topic for this platform but imo the birth year change in US youth soccer this fall has been a complete tire fire. My vantage point is 3 kids playing top flights across two different clubs in Upper Midwest. Leagues are hemorrhaging teams, players are mis-placed on some rosters, it’s total mess
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Michigan deserved this so so much. Play stupid game, win stupid prize shit
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Commentators hyping up Diaz and he immediately drops an easy toss, lmao
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Long week on the road so happy Friday, you guys
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
How’re you gonna omit ‘The Apprentice,’ which is unfortunately the most consequential television program in American history?
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
With City going down, maybe now Spurs have a chance to stay up
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Really putting the ‘L’ in Blue Owl
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Dime store Kacey Musgraves, if you ask me
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is why I subscribe to the FT, incredible and valuable work here
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
See my barber every 3-4 weeks, y’all go less frequently than that?
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
One of the most consistent experiences across the joint force officer corps is meeting Saudi nepo babies in training schools
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
W-2 earners are all working class regardless of the number in Box 1
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Reposted by Andy
jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 15/09/2026
some chud interviewing for patel’s FBI: “if anything the goat fucked *me*”
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
You guys gotta see this
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Classic Ryan Day Game™️
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Every Ohio State loss is just immaculate
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I was near the end of high school in Illinois on 9/11, and didn’t have any personal connection to what happened. But I eventually spent two years of my life in combat zones which we likely never would have entered had 9/11 not occurred. The reverberation of that day had a huge impact on my life
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Here’s some great new music, you guys, especially if you’re into Dad Rock™️ music.apple.com/us/album/dea...
music.apple.com
Dead For A Sec by Wild Pink on Apple Music
Song · 2026 · Duration 3:48
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Happy Labor Day, you guys
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Absolutely stunning morning, you guys
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
It’s probably ‘You’ll Accomp’ny Me’
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
What’s the pronunciation here? Is it Al-ex vs. Eh-lix?
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Someone should point out that the Indiana state legislature has a billion dollars for the Bears relocation but not to help their own taxpayers
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Reposted by Andy
BYCTOM @byctom.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
You will never see Jerry Reinsdorf's Bulls investigated for trying to give a player more money
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Southbound lane full send
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Zverev 👀
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Doubt your city could ever touch this www.ft.com/content/7c71...
ft.com
How Chicago became America’s most surprising beach city
The FT’s architecture critic finds the city’s long lakefront a masterclass in urban planning, with sandy shorelines and remarkable buildings
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Driscoll’s out as SecArmy
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The school shouldn’t permit this in the same way that some companies prohibit holders from hedging stock holdings/options. Nonetheless, clever use of the market www.ingame.com/lsu-south-ca...
ingame.com
LSU Football Coach Kiffin’s Bonuses Hedged Using $3 Million Kalshi Trades Placed By Outside Firm
Game Point Capital helps teams hedge bonus risks and placed Kalshi trades worth $3 million on LSU's performance.
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Here’s a nice little soul jam for your Sunday, you guys music.apple.com/us/album/sym...
music.apple.com
Sympathy by LUCA on Apple Music
Song · 2026 · Duration 3:47
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Reposted by Andy
Matt Ford @mford.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Ninth Circuit panel says 3-0 that Kalshi’s “sports events contracts” are not swaps under the CEA and Nevada gambling laws aren’t pre-empted by CFTC rules for prediction markets. A massive blow to the industry: cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/op...
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Interesting that the criminals using AI to call my phone incessantly hawking business lines of credit have shifted the phone numbers from which they call to Canada. Calls from Quebec, Toronto and Alberta over the last few days
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
They coming for him www.ft.com/content/7729...
ft.com
Uefa prepares criminal complaint against Fifa’s Infantino
Governing body of European football seeking documents from Joshua Kushner’s investment firm
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I don’t know the particulars of this deal but 600bps nominal spread is actually decent vs. 460bps STW for single-B loans
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
You heard it here first, folks bsky.app/profile/awma...
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The grass is freshly cut and the sun’s out. Happy Sunday, you guys
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
“Tottenham in tatters”
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Well alright then
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Andy @awmark.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Why do New Yorkers insist on calling it the L-I-R-R and not “the Leer?” Seems much simpler to me
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