Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 26/08/2026If consumer confidence keeps falling lower and lower, it will hurt consumer discretionary, and especially retail stocks hard. $XRT $XLY $NKE $LULU $UA $AEO are especially at risk. Coupled with today’s hot PCE inflation report, the risks are even bigger. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 24/08/2026If this is true, then Nvidia is underwriting and backstopping a whole lot of bad deals. Depending on the terms of the guarantees, if any of these AI companies go belly up, it could negatively affect Nvidia stock as well because they have to dip into their free cash flows. x.com/kakashiii111... 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 22/08/2026The majority of AI data centers yet to be built have faced opposition and this will constrain compute. Thus, the more efficient Chinese open-source models will be used instead and this will put the revenues of Anthropic and OpenAI at risk. The semis will also get more efficient at power usage. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 22/08/2026Jamin Ball mentions how more headcount is needed to increase the TAM of AI. Yet, many companies are laying off humans. He compares Snowflake to Teradata back in 2017. The latter is in a specific category of databases while AI has many unproven categories cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-ju... 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Take a look at the charts of the rising 30 year yield and the dollar index. In January 2024, the dollar index had really gone up on the assumption that money would flow into America. Strangely, the yield had fallen. Now, the yield is at all-time high, but the dollar is falling. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 20/08/2026After the blockbuster earnings season, there’s a tremendous amount of bullishness about next quarter and the consensus amongst fund managers is that we will have a “no landing” scenario. When expectations are this high, even the slightest mishap can cause the market to tumble. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 19/08/2026I bought Moderna in late 2024 in the $40 range and sold it for a slight profit in February of this year because the stock was moving sideways? Thankfully, I still hold Merck and have held the same tranche since March 2015. Also have $IBB and $XBI for many years. Biotech is a volatile industry! 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 18/08/2026From this week’s Simply Wall Street: the Europeans are literally regulating themselves to death when it comes to AC. There are some buildings in France where you have one of the most restrictive retrofit rules. This could be a good opportunity for Carrier to go in and capture some revenue. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 16/08/2026There’s a detail everyone’s missing: $AMAT only provided forecasts until 2027 because that is the date for which their customers have provided forecasts. Where are these growth estimates for 2030 coming from when the semis themselves only have line of sight until 2027? en.sedaily.com/internationa... 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 16/08/2026All components of inflation are coming down but it’s been stuck above 2.5% for a while now. If it doesn’t come down fast enough, the Fed will raise rates. The other wild card here is the cost of computer peripherals which have gone up and is a major portion of inflation. This is because of AI usage 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 15/08/2026Most of our GDP is being driven by AI data center spending in anticipation of massive demand. OpenRouter shows DeepSeek token usage surging leading to collapsing token prices. This isn’t good for OpenAI or Anthropic, who are the top customers of the hyperscalers. What happens if they bleed cash? 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 15/08/2026Amongst all the hyperscalers, Google has raised the most debt issuance. Their latest round was $25 billion which brings their total to over $114 billion. None of this is good for the free cash flows of hyperscalers.  000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 12/08/2026We know Nvidia is lining up other investors because it believes the usable life of a GPU is far beyond 5 years. Read this piece about the risky business Nvidia is getting into: stratechery.com/2026/nvidias...stratechery.comNvidia’s Risky BusinessNvidia is finding new ways for its customers to raise money, and it’s expanding the risk of the AI buildout significantly. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 12/08/2026The NFIB report is out (nfib.com/wp-content/upl…). Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, vs 97.4 in June and is above the 52-yr avg of 98.0 - the highest reading since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving (biggest was hiring plans). Interest on short-term loans rose from 7.4 to 7.9%.nfib.com 110
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 08/08/2026The US trade deficit has narrowed but if you look at the blip at the end, both our exports and our imports declined. No wonder the GDP increase was pretty low. That’s not a good sign for the rest of the economy. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Jun 30, 2026: ASML 52-wk high $1999.96 Aug 12, 1996: Cisco partners with WorldCom Oct 11, 1999, Nvidia GeForce 256 Aug 12, 2026: July CPI print Aug 26, 2026: midpoint between June 30 & October 23, 2026 Nvidia releases earnings before the Fed meets Sep 11, 2026: Aug CPI print & 9/11 25th anniversarystatic.klipy.comThanos: What Did It Cost? Everything.Alt: Thanos: What Did It Cost? Everything. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Here is research that projects AI datacenter electricity usage through the year 2033. It was done based on semiconductor purchases. I have issues with this kind of research because semiconductors are being made more power efficient and much of the demand are purchases being pulled forward.  000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 06/08/2026During the AI era, we’ve had many corrections, and with stellar earnings from Sandisk and Western Digital failing to move markets, it’s hard to know what catalyst is needed. The spring run up in semiconductors may have been caused by hedge funds. Emerging markets have been flat during this period. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 04/08/2026With the intervention in the Japanese yen, we should look at what happens to the yen-peso carry trade. The last time this faltered in mid 2024, take a look at ETFs like EWW and ILF. Right now, the yields on US treasuries are still higher than Japanese ones which is probably saving this trade.  010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 31/07/2026If the Japanese are going to intervene in the falling yen, then doesn’t that strengthen the yen, raise interest rates, and take away the Japanese carry trade? And shouldn’t that affect our stock market negatively? We’ve seen Japanese bond yields go up for a while but it hasn’t impacted our stocks.  011
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 31/07/2026The book destruction by Anthropic reminds me of what Thanos says in Endgame: “I will shred this universe down to its last atom and then, with the stones you've collected for me, create a new one. Teeming with life that knows not what it has lost but only what it has been given. A grateful universe.”static.klipy.comThanos Marvel: A Greatfull UniverseAlt: Thanos delivering a line in avengers endgame about how he wants to shred this universe down to its last atom and build a new one teaming with life that knows not what has been taken but only what has been given. A grateful universe. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 30/07/2026Kevin Warsh gave no clue as to how he would battle high inflation and you saw the bond and stock market react violently. The hardest choices require the strongest wills. In acting this way, he follows in the footsteps of Greenspan who presided over the dotcom crash. And that is destiny fulfilled.  010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 30/07/2026This day extracts a heavy toll. Meta’s stock was punished due to its free cash flow decline while Microsoft was rewarded due to reducing capex. There’s only so much cash flow left over. When there’s too many mouths and not enough to go around, investors bail. What I predicted has come to pass. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 29/07/2026I expect Kevin Warsh to say that the Fed will resume QT, allow the MBS runoff to continue, and reinforce that the Fed has no tolerance for persistently high inflation. He’ll also tie a lower balance sheet to lower policy rates and say that the Fed will rely on the trimmed mean to measure CPI. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Even though Citadel believes that the Fed will raise rates, I don’t think they will. They’ll hold because Warsh has said that he wants to rely more on the CPI trimmed mean so that it strips out outliers and one time shocks. The CPI trimmed mean is pretty stable www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-a...clevelandfed.orgMedian CPIThe median CPI is a measure of inflation computed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. It ranks the components of CPI inflation and picks the one in the middle. Its construction makes it less sen... 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Two different headlines about Jeff Bezos about the same story. This one from Fortune: fortune.com/article/jeff... and this one from TNW: thenextweb.com/news/bezos-s.... Reminder to everyone to always look behind the headlines even in a world with ever-decreasing attention spans.fortune.comJeff Bezos says working harder is the cure for anxiety: ‘The stress goes away the second I take that first step’ | FortuneBezos worked through decades of stress to build the No. 1 Fortune 500 company. 010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Oil is now higher and we all know what happened the last time it was this high back in March. The only difference is back then, we still had oil reserves to draw from whereas now they are perilously low. This does not bode well for any stock. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 22/07/2026Kimi has a promotion where if existing users share their referral code and it results in a download, both you and I get entered into a draw to get a year of free membership. Here is my code: kimi-bot.com/activities/v...kimi-bot.comKimi Moon Landing Plan - Invite Friends & Win PrizesInvite friends to Kimi and both sides will receive draw chances. 100% win prizes! 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 19/07/2026With Perplexity, you could simply select additional connectors, but now you have to select each one individually and go back to the UI to select others. I think that most Pro users selected all and it increased token consumption costs for Perplexity, so now they’re adding friction to this process. 010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 17/07/2026Most of the banking stocks are on a tear and it looks like the semiconductor stocks are experiencing quite a selloff since their highs in mid June. But then again, we also know that it’s the trading revenue that’s bolstering these banking stocks. So if the AI bubble pops, what happens to them? 110
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 14/07/2026When will the AI bubble pop? We know Warsh wants to cut the money supply, but there’s more money printing. During the pandemic bubble, the sign was bond rates going up in late 2021 in anticipation of a Fed hike. Now we’re in a high interest rate environment and we don’t know where inflation will go. 010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 10/07/2026The S&P has downgraded Oracle to one notch above junk status due to their concerns over weaker cash flows, competition from Meta & SpaceX, and the risks posed by OpenAI being the largest AI datacenter customer, making up over half of the $638 billion worth of RPO. www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...spglobal.com 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 08/07/2026Microsoft is replacing openAI with some of their own models. I wonder if they’re willing to write down the value of their investment if it comes down to it? I suspect they must’ve run the numbers on their margins and correlated it with their stock price. thenextweb.com/news/microso...thenextweb.comMicrosoft swaps in its own AI over OpenAI in some appsMicrosoft is routing some app features to its in-house MAI models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic, chipping away at its reliance on partners. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 05/07/2026Happy Fourth of July, my fellow Americans! This view of the Pacific with our stars & stripes in the foreground signifies an unlimited expanse for our ambition. We are the greatest country in the world and we must continue to strive towards even greater heights. We are inevitable. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 27/06/2026I am impressed by Kimi v 2.6 agentic capabilities and how I’m able to audit its chain of thought. I asked it to research some nuclear energy stocks for me, and look at how I’m able to see which skills it is retrieving, how is executing Python code, and any activities it is doing in its terminal. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 27/06/2026Between LangChain, LlamaIndex, Semantic Kernel, CrewAI, when do you use these frameworks versus building lighter-weight primitives? Also, for fine-tuning or embeddings, is it better to use PyTorch and TensorFlow to write custom classes to define layers, weights, and dimensions or just Hugging Face? 100
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/06/2026This is a great article that outlines 3 ways in which the AI bubble might burst (dotcom-style violent crash, 2008-style economic contagion, or slow deflation due to unusable infrastructure) and what the EU can do to take advantage of it when that happens: federicozebele.substack.com/p/this-is-wh...federicozebele.substack.comThis Is Why AI is a Bubble — and What EU Should DoWhat the consensus says. What it stays silent about. And what would actually happen if it burst. 120
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 20/06/2026With the release of Google open knowledge format, I wonder if DBT is in serious trouble. With OKF, all data analysis can be automated and you don’t need a dedicated data analyst anymore. You do of course need ETL and data catalogs - that never changes no matter how the tech landscape changes! 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Microsoft’s take on the AI frontier ecosystem snscratchpad.com/posts/fronti.... To accomplish this, they must “hot swap” models. Before that, they must create an Azure service out of an open source model. Then, get rid of LLM-as-a-judge evals. Finally tie in observability and Azure API management.snscratchpad.comA frontier without an ecosystem is not stableI’ve been thinking a lot about the future of the firm in an AI-driven economy. 010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 13/06/2026Software stocks are getting disrupted due to AI, yet have to destroy their 70% gross margins even more by using the frontier models. If AI wasn’t there as a growth catalyst in 2022 when we were in a bear market, I wonder where their stock prices might be today. What if ChatGPT and LLMs didn’t exist? 010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 13/06/2026Amazon voiced concerns about Anthropic‘s Fable model despite investing in them. Why would they do this? My theory is that they ran the numbers on token costs which were too much for their customers. They’ll probably deploy a Chinese open source model as an AWS service www.reuters.com/business/ret...reuters.comAmazon voiced concerns about Anthropic AI models before US government's crackdown, source saysAmazon CEO Andy Jassy raised concerns about security risks in Anthropic’s most advanced AI models. 010
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 12/06/2026Friday March 10, 2000 was the peak of the dotcom bubble. 📉 Dr. Strange saw 14,000,605 possibilities and only 1 victory against Thanos. Add 14,000,605 minutes to March 10, 4pm ET and you get Friday, October 23, 2026 7:26am ET before the market opens. We’re in the endgame now.static.klipy.comDoctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) in EndgameAlt: Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) in Endgame signaling to Tony stark with his index finger that this was the only chance at victory out of 14 million possibilities to take the infinity stones from Thanos’s gauntlet. 031
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 11/06/2026Anthropic will spend $200 million to study AI job disruptions. It comes soon after Dario called for a halt to further AI development. With OpenAI seeking a government stake, we know why – their unit economics are bad. But what’s in it for Anthropic spending this money? www.usnews.com/news/busines...usnews.com 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 09/06/2026As Anthropic and OpenAI tokens get more expensive, the hyperscalers will simply take open source models and launch their own distinct AI services on their clouds, similar to what they did during the Big Data days with Hortonworks. 6200
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 29/05/2026In Feb about $1T in market cap was wiped off from SW stocks due to fears that Anthropic would eat into their market share. Anthropic recently closed a round that values it at almost $1T. Yet, today, software stocks are up a lot. How can both sectors be up simultaneously? fortune.com/2026/02/05/s...fortune.comThe ‘dumb money’ steps in as traders lose $1 trillion on the realization that AI will eat tech companies first | FortuneThe chaos is mostly a tech-stock phenomenon. The equal-weight S&P 500 is actually at a record high. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 27/05/2026Google Health doesn’t save you time with its generative AI features. It suggested to me to snap a picture of a snack I was taking and it would automatically calculate the calories. It completely botched the job and cost me more time in deleting the entry. I will simply stick with MyFitnessPal. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 20/05/2026The $NVDA earnings out, and results having beaten expectations, but we have to keep an eye on the GPU trade broadening to other sectors, high CAPEX, desire for free cash flow from fund managers, and how the bond rates for hyperscalers have increased due to CAPEX spend. Nvidia is down after hours. 120
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 18/05/2026Effects of generative AI on dev productivity: #AI tool usage ⬆️ 65% 🟰PR throughput ⬆️ 8%. Most orgs in 5-15% range, below the 3x-10x expectations. Coding is about 14% of dev time but AI tools introduce new bottlenecks like additional reviews, tech & cognitive debt newsletter.getdx.com/p/ai-product...newsletter.getdx.comAI and engineering AI productivity gains: More modest than expectedFindings from DX’s longitudinal analysis of AI’s impact on velocity from November 2024 to February 2026. 030
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 11/05/2026You must use AI. Do not let #AI use you. 000
Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 09/05/2026Totally agree that #AI isn’t good for trading and @anthropic.com will have their work cut out for them. LLMs frequently get stale data when calculating even basic things like support levels for limit buys. #stocks 110