iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

There’s literally evidence here of his wrong predictions. I used to believe some of what he was saying but when I question the others, he blocked me. Shows that he can’t debate which convinces me to accept what the AI guys are saying about him being a grifter making money off “normies” & AI doomers.

100

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Strangely, their ETF $EFNL is doing really well and recently reached multi year all-time highs. How can this be?

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

They got a lot more in research dollars than they did down here. That’s all this came down to. More research dollars means amor lengthier and comprehensive research cycle for findings.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

I would urge you to check numbers before publishing this. There’s an entire article about you on Reddit containing a list of your predictions which have not panned out. I suggest answering where you went wrong there and why you are right this time. www.reddit.com/r/accelerate...

100

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Unfortunately, consumer staples stocks like Kroger, Walmart, and Proctor & Gamble have fared quite poorly. This means they have fewer margin dollars to allocate towards AI initiatives. What this means is that IT spending will bias towards open source models which is bearish for Anthropic and OpenAI

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Very sorry to hear this. Were there any warning signs or any sort of illness she was experiencing? Or was it just all of a sudden and one day she just didn’t wake up?

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

This guy is factually correct, but you do know how to perform investigative journalism and you seem to have a good head for numbers to do the math. I think your knowledge gap is primarily everything below the frontier model layer – meaning GPUs, interconnects, memory, and power usage.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

As his eyes turned towards you, that was the first sign that he trusts you.

010

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Looks like he’s transmitting intelligence! This is literally what a “meeting of the minds“ looks like.

010

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

If consumer confidence keeps falling lower and lower, it will hurt consumer discretionary, and especially retail stocks hard. $XRT $XLY $NKE $LULU $UA $AEO are especially at risk. Coupled with today’s hot PCE inflation report, the risks are even bigger.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

I wonder how cats are comfortable sleeping in their usual curved position or with half their body somewhere else. Cats are probably the only animals that can sleep wherever, and in whatever position!

010

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

With this kind of debt profile (a substantial portion of which is owned by other foreign countries) coupled with the AI bubble which is financed at even higher yields, if the bubble bursts, a severe recession will follow and tax receipts will take a major dip, thereby pushing the deficit higher.

010

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

This is good to know. I’ve been a Kroger shareholder ever since May 2019 and added to my positions over time, the most recent one being a few months ago. I’m a little underwater in my most recent position having bought at around $65 or so but this news should help boost it.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

If this is true, then Nvidia is underwriting and backstopping a whole lot of bad deals. Depending on the terms of the guarantees, if any of these AI companies go belly up, it could negatively affect Nvidia stock as well because they have to dip into their free cash flows. x.com/kakashiii111...

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

What a beautiful little guy! How old is he? Looks like a month old or so.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The whole “only 17.6% of the world has Gen AI” smacks of typical Silicon Valley speak where startups talk about the TAM and say that if they just captured 1% more of that market, they’d be worth billions. What is not said is how hard tweaking existing products to force habit changes are.

010

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

So much green moss! It was a very cooling experience, I assume? Were you able to get a dip in the pool below?

110

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The frontier models are all going to be commoditized eventually by Chinese open source models who can deliver at least similar performance at much cheaper costs. They will be forced to cut prices which will impact their revenues and their margins. That sets them up for a potential wave of defaults.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I think it’s worse than that because you’re simply calculating the normal CPI inflation rate. The costs of housing, education and healthcare have also skyrocketed upwards and with all the layoffs going on, there’s no guarantee you will even get a job that pays that much.

010

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I’m pointing at what’ll happen (x.com/thelastrefug...). Getting angry at normal Americans won’t help. The politicians will get rich. We’ll feel some pain but you’ll suffer a deep recession. Take a look at the stocks within $EWC and map that to the tariffs and you’ll know every company that’ll be hit

x.com

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

You can be emotional but it’s not going to matter. Most Americans don’t want a trade war but we also see what’s going to happen: Canada is being made an example of and business will go to Mexico. You can either see the facts or continue to rail at me. Neither you nor I have the power to do anything.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Over 70% of Canada‘s exports are to the US while only 15% of the US exports are to Canada. Canada’s top import from the US is Vehicles & Automotive Parts. That can’t be substituted easily because there are no domestic Canadian vehicles. Canadian auto workers are employed by US auto manufacturers.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The price of oil is determined globally by supply & demand. Due to the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz has been choked off and that’s why supply has plummeted. The strategic petroleum reserve can only do so much. At the end of the day, the laws of physics determine how much you can pump domestically

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The US is a net energy exporter and if all imports from Canada were to stop, the US would simply use its domestic capacity. Countries in Europe would suffer as a result. The only reason importing from Canada happens is due to the low cost of transfer due to proximity. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

eia.gov

The United States is a major energy exporter and importer, especially for petroleum - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The US agency is the EIA, which I have quoted. The Canadian org which made your chart (using the EIA) fails to mention that the US is a net exporter. Simple math: if the US imports 20 and exports 80, it’s a net exporter. Of the 20, if Canada supplies 90%, that’s 18. The US is still a net exporter.

100

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The US is a net exporter of oil and natural gas. For natural gas, the US imports from Canada especially during the winter months for the northeastern states, due to proximity to natural gas pipeline crossings. If that were to go away, there is ample supply domestically. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

200

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

IEEPA Emergency Tariffs and Section 122 Global Levies have been ruled illegal but section 232 and 301 tariffs are still in play. These are tariffs implemented through specific statutory delegations by Congress.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Agreed. Tariffs are inflationary because they’re an added tax. Whether tariffs are used to pay down our $40 trillion in debt which would result in lower bond yields and interest rates to reduce the cost of financing is yet to be seen. In fact, I’d love to know how tariff revenues are being used.

110

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

The majority of AI data centers yet to be built have faced opposition and this will constrain compute. Thus, the more efficient Chinese open-source models will be used instead and this will put the revenues of Anthropic and OpenAI at risk. The semis will also get more efficient at power usage.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

This political posturing isn’t going to lead to anything other than a recession for Canada. The fact of the matter is that 70% of Canada‘s exports go to the US while only 14% of the US exports go to Canada. For what this reality might look like, look at what this economist says x.com/drjstrategy/...

x.com

100

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Jamin Ball mentions how more headcount is needed to increase the TAM of AI. Yet, many companies are laying off humans. He compares Snowflake to Teradata back in 2017. The latter is in a specific category of databases while AI has many unproven categories cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-ju...

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Take a look at the charts of the rising 30 year yield and the dollar index. In January 2024, the dollar index had really gone up on the assumption that money would flow into America. Strangely, the yield had fallen. Now, the yield is at all-time high, but the dollar is falling.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

After the blockbuster earnings season, there’s a tremendous amount of bullishness about next quarter and the consensus amongst fund managers is that we will have a “no landing” scenario. When expectations are this high, even the slightest mishap can cause the market to tumble.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

I bought Moderna in late 2024 in the $40 range and sold it for a slight profit in February of this year because the stock was moving sideways? Thankfully, I still hold Merck and have held the same tranche since March 2015. Also have $IBB and $XBI for many years. Biotech is a volatile industry!

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Other developed countries also have rising bond yields. We are not the only ones. In fact, every country probably owns a significant chunk of each other’s debt so at some point in time, there will be a deal made to take a haircut on these yields. That’s the only way to avoid default.

120

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

From this week’s Simply Wall Street: the Europeans are literally regulating themselves to death when it comes to AC. There are some buildings in France where you have one of the most restrictive retrofit rules. This could be a good opportunity for Carrier to go in and capture some revenue.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

There’s a detail everyone’s missing: $AMAT only provided forecasts until 2027 because that is the date for which their customers have provided forecasts. Where are these growth estimates for 2030 coming from when the semis themselves only have line of sight until 2027? en.sedaily.com/internationa...

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

All components of inflation are coming down but it’s been stuck above 2.5% for a while now. If it doesn’t come down fast enough, the Fed will raise rates. The other wild card here is the cost of computer peripherals which have gone up and is a major portion of inflation. This is because of AI usage

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Most of our GDP is being driven by AI data center spending in anticipation of massive demand. OpenRouter shows DeepSeek token usage surging leading to collapsing token prices. This isn’t good for OpenAI or Anthropic, who are the top customers of the hyperscalers. What happens if they bleed cash?

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Amongst all the hyperscalers, Google has raised the most debt issuance. Their latest round was $25 billion which brings their total to over $114 billion. None of this is good for the free cash flows of hyperscalers.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

We know Nvidia is lining up other investors because it believes the usable life of a GPU is far beyond 5 years. Read this piece about the risky business Nvidia is getting into: stratechery.com/2026/nvidias...

stratechery.com

Nvidia’s Risky Business

Nvidia is finding new ways for its customers to raise money, and it’s expanding the risk of the AI buildout significantly.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The NFIB report is out (nfib.com/wp-content/upl…). Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, vs 97.4 in June and is above the 52-yr avg of 98.0 - the highest reading since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving (biggest was hiring plans). Interest on short-term loans rose from 7.4 to 7.9%.

nfib.com

110

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

With this new announcement by Nvidia, do you think it will lead to proliferation of other SPVs behind the scenes? Or is it more reminiscent of how GE financing used to help their customers lease their own equipment during the Jack Welch days?

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Wow, I’m surprised that he isn’t scared by such a big toy! When our cats are confronted by a toy that is bigger than them, they don’t even play with it. They only play with toys that they can carry around in their mouths.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

What’s going on with their finances that they need to offer this bond has such a low rate? Why would anybody buy this yield when you can get US treasury at a much higher yield?

010

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

We are already seeing other countries stock up on gold reserves to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This does not bode well for the future. More cuts as well as more tax revenues are needed otherwise we may face the same fate of austerity that European governments went through in the 2010s.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

BRK is buying stock again because they have a stake in $GOOG. They are also under Abel. Warren wanted to buy undervalued companies while Abel wants to get in on the one last blow off the top rally before the plunge. FWIW, BRK has said multiple times over the years that the market is expensive.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

It’s been a K-shaped economy in many cities, not just Miami. It’s even been a K-shaped economy within the tech sector with the semiconductors doing really well, and the software companies getting hollowed out.

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

The US trade deficit has narrowed but if you look at the blip at the end, both our exports and our imports declined. No wonder the GDP increase was pretty low. That’s not a good sign for the rest of the economy.

US balance of trade for imports and exports

000

Ashwin Viswanath @ashwinviswanath.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

No wonder their stock price went above $500! How are they able to afford buying back their own stock and buying the newly issued Google stock?

000