Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 25/09/2025Also thrilled to see @petercontibrown.bsky.social excellent work mentiond. 010
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 25/09/2025Big day! 🚨 My work with Cristina Bodea on [central bank independence](www.cambridge.org/core/journal...) just got cited at the [Supreme Court](www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25...)cambridge.orgPrice Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions | International Organization | Cambridge CorePrice Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions - Volume 69 Issue 1 110
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 07/05/2025Read more: goodauthority.org/news/can-cen... #Econ #MonetaryPolicy #Fed #RuleOfLaw #CentralBanksgoodauthority.orgCan central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job. 000
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 07/05/2025Central banks are meant to be independent. But what happens when the rule of law erodes? New @goodauth.bsky.social post by Cristina Bodea & @arpie71.bsky.social breaks down why central bank independence relies not just on legal design—but on democratic institutions that protect it.goodauthority.orgCan central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job. 141
Reposted by Raymond HicksGood Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 07/05/2025Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law? Read our latest on the importance of sound money. goodauthority.org/news/can-cen...goodauthority.orgCan central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job. 064
Reposted by Raymond Hickshistory-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 28/04/2025We’ve just released new Stata (github.com/history-lab/...) and R (github.com/history-lab/...) packages that make it easy to pull History Lab’s text and metadata directly into your favorite statistical tools. Learn more about what we do at lab.history.columbia.edu!github.comGitHub - history-lab/hlapiStata: Stata package to access History Lab APIStata package to access History Lab API. Contribute to history-lab/hlapiStata development by creating an account on GitHub. 011
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025The final possibility is a multilateral version of the above. This would just be the WTO. Whichever of these occurs, we can be sure that victory will be claimed. 000
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025A second possibility is a return to RTAA-type bilateral negotiation governed by something like the principal supplier rule. A country who supplies the most of a product to the US can negotiate for a lower rate but all countries will get the lower rate. 100
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025The first, and most problematic, is bilateral negotiations that differentially reduce tariff rates. As @kevinhorourke.bsky.social has been worried about, this destroys nondiscrimination. 100
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025This means that firms affected will lobby for a return to a higher rate with all the same potential issues as with lobbying for lower rates. The final step is unclear. I can think of 3 possibilities. 110
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025This is a amplified continuation of that with firms "lobbying" for lower rates on existing lines. The second step will be from the opposite direction. If a universal 10% tariff is applied, some products will see a reduction in tariffs. 100
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025We are now seeing the first step: bsky.app/profile/pwna.... In Song Kim and Helen Milner argue that some domestic firms will lobby for lower tariffs. US government carves out new tariff lines with a reduced rate to help while old line rate is kept higher to protect other firms. 100
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025A couple of weeks ago, I started writing something up on how with the "reciprocal" tariffs, we would end up back in nearly the same place as before, except victory would be declared and the tariff schedule would be touted as the greatest thing ever, despite not changing. 100
Reposted by Raymond HicksRaymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 07/03/2025So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like: 021
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 04/04/2025For the WTO to survive, countries need to respond _within_ its framework. Ideally, the Contracting Parties would meet and vote to suspend all concessions to the US. They could also vote to add an amendment nullifying non-discrimination in the event that one party violates it unilaterally. 000
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Article XXIII (nullification) was not sufficient. Instead, the US sought remedy under Article XXV (Joint Action). Czechoslovakia agreed and the Contracting Parties ruled that both countries were free from obligations to the other. 000
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 03/04/2025In 1951, the US petitioned the GATT to suspend its concessions with Czechoslovakia. It argued that "because we can not reasonably anticipate an improvement of our commerce with Czechoslovakia so long as the present state of relations between us exists" (history.state.gov/historicaldo...)history.state.govHistorical Documents - Office of the Historianhistory.state.gov 3.0 shell 100
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 03/04/2025It is uncharted territory. Even before the GATT/WTO the RTAs and Treaties of Commerce guaranteed non-discrimination. I don't think any trade agreement has provisions for violations such as this. How the world and WTO respond becomes vitally important for the future of the global trade regime. 010
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 15/03/2025I will never complain about the review process again. (From Ian Stewart's Visions of Infinity) 040
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 13/03/2025I should have read the fine print when the U.S. replace MFN with Permanent* Normal^ Trade** Relations^^. * Timeframe not guaranteed ^ HA, Your mileage may vary ** Yeah, this one still works, for now ^^ Quality of relations not specified 010
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/03/2025Trade wars are accelerating the decline of international economic governance. But instead of collapsing, global trade institutions are lurching forward in a zombie-like state. What happens next? Julia Gray describes our coming era of half-dead internationalismgoodauthority.orgZombie institutions could have "afterlives," but little power.Zombie internationalism sees a slow, stumbling transformation, and decreased trust in international agreements and global institutions. 093
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 07/03/2025So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like: 021
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 06/03/2025Version 2 of my dropbox command is out. This tool locates a user’s Dropbox folder automatically and adds an option to search a secondary drive before moving to the primary one. Installation instructions at github.com/arpie71/drop.... (Thanks to @kevinhorourke.bsky.social for suggesting changes)github.comGitHub - arpie71/dropboxContribute to arpie71/dropbox development by creating an account on GitHub. 021
Reposted by Raymond HicksPeter Ungphakorn @coppetainpu.bsky.social · 05/03/2025Canada has challenged Trump's tariffs at the WTO. Clearly Trump won't care since the US can block any ruling (by appealing "into the void"), but Canada is also making a statement about the need to play by the rules. www.wto.org/english/news...wto.orgCanada initiates WTO dispute complaint regarding US tariff measuresCanada has requested WTO dispute consultations with the United States regarding new tariff measures applied by the United States on goods originating in Canada. The request was circulated to WTO memb... 0209
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 05/03/2025I've been thinking about this song a lot: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Az5d... I'm waiting for a Democratic politician to attempt a "decency" moment rather than a "gotcha" moment.youtube.comExhuming McCarthyYouTube video by R.E.M. - Topic 000
Reposted by Raymond HicksDouglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 03/03/2025Any parallels? "Selling Swamps Exchange..Leading Issues Tumble as Wall Street Assails the New Tariff" 1277
Reposted by Raymond HicksMatthew Connelly @mattspast.bsky.social · 01/03/2025I'm thinking of starting a "today in (recent) history" feature, reminding everyone of all Trump's idiot moves during the one major crisis of his first administration. But then I already missed February 27, 2020, when he said "it's like a miracle, it will disappear" 001
Reposted by Raymond Hickshistory-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 25/02/2025Applications for Archives as Data are open until the end of March! 📅 Decisions will be announced shortly after. Don’t miss this opportunity—submit your application today! lab.history.columbia.edu/content/work... #ArchivesAsData #DigitalHistory #OpenDatalab.history.columbia.eduWorkshops | History Lab 001
Reposted by Raymond HicksMatthew Connelly @mattspast.bsky.social · 19/02/2025Non-coders can also explore and download thousands of docs from the CIA, NATO, State Dept., etc. on our new website: lab.history.columbia.edu 011
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 19/02/2025Disclaimer: I am part of History Lab and am biased but this is a wonderful resource for declassified US government documents as well as documents from IOs such as the UN, NATO, and the World Bank. 000
Reposted by Raymond Hickshistory-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 19/02/2025📢Into US Foreign Policy or text analysis? This is for you! History Lab has released the full text+metadata from our FOIArchive on Hugging Face. 🔍 Perfect for exploring diplomatic history, NLP, & document analysis Repost to spread the word! 🗞️📡 #USForeignPolicy #DigitalHistory #TextAnalysis #OpenDatalab.history.columbia.eduHistory Lab 213
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 18/02/2025One of the fun things about being a data nerd is finding data you forgot you collected. The annoying thing is remembering that you did not properly annotate and source the data since the collection was not finished. 000
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Is history repeating? In the 1930s, the US rewrote trade rules with the RTAA, locking in dominance via the principal-supplier rule—later enshrined in GATT. The indomitable Joanne Gowa & I studied how this shaped trade. Now, with tariffs & industrial policy, the US is at it again. Buckle up.cambridge.org“Big” Treaties, Small Effects | World Politics | Cambridge Core“Big” Treaties, Small Effects - Volume 70 Issue 2 000
Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 13/02/2025Cristina Bodea and I have released our CBI data at github.com/arpie71/CBId.... The data cover 144 countries for the years 1970 through 2020. The component scores for the index are also included. #CBIdatagithub.comGitHub - arpie71/CBIdata: Central bank independence datasetCentral bank independence dataset. Contribute to arpie71/CBIdata development by creating an account on GitHub. 010
Reposted by Raymond Hickshistory-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 28/01/2025Applications are now open for Archives as Data. A FREE @NEHgov workshop @Columbia June 2-13, 2025. It's a crash course for historians and archivists in analyzing digital & digitized texts with an intro to AI for advanced beginners: lab.history.columbia.edu/content/work... #twitterstorianslab.history.columbia.eduWorkshops | History Lab 12621
