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Raymond Hicks

@arpie71.bsky.social
93 followers 118 following 25 posts

Researcher at History Lab @Columbia. IPE scholar, data scientist

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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Big day! 🚨 My work with Cristina Bodea on [central bank independence](www.cambridge.org/core/journal...) just got cited at the [Supreme Court](www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25...)
cambridge.org
Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions - Volume 69 Issue 1
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Central banks are meant to be independent. But what happens when the rule of law erodes? New @goodauth.bsky.social post by Cristina Bodea & @arpie71.bsky.social breaks down why central bank independence relies not just on legal design—but on democratic institutions that protect it.
goodauthority.org
Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?
The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.
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Reposted by Raymond Hicks
Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law? Read our latest on the importance of sound money. goodauthority.org/news/can-cen...
goodauthority.org
Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?
The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.
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Reposted by Raymond Hicks
history-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
We’ve just released new Stata (github.com/history-lab/...) and R (github.com/history-lab/...) packages that make it easy to pull History Lab’s text and metadata directly into your favorite statistical tools. Learn more about what we do at lab.history.columbia.edu!
github.com
GitHub - history-lab/hlapiStata: Stata package to access History Lab API
Stata package to access History Lab API. Contribute to history-lab/hlapiStata development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
A couple of weeks ago, I started writing something up on how with the "reciprocal" tariffs, we would end up back in nearly the same place as before, except victory would be declared and the tariff schedule would be touted as the greatest thing ever, despite not changing.
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like:
this is exhausting
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
In 1951, the US petitioned the GATT to suspend its concessions with Czechoslovakia. It argued that "because we can not reasonably anticipate an improvement of our commerce with Czechoslovakia so long as the present state of relations between us exists" (history.state.gov/historicaldo...)
history.state.gov
Historical Documents - Office of the Historian
history.state.gov 3.0 shell
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
I will never complain about the review process again. (From Ian Stewart's Visions of Infinity)
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
I should have read the fine print when the U.S. replace MFN with Permanent* Normal^ Trade** Relations^^. * Timeframe not guaranteed ^ HA, Your mileage may vary ** Yeah, this one still works, for now ^^ Quality of relations not specified
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Trade wars are accelerating the decline of international economic governance. But instead of collapsing, global trade institutions are lurching forward in a zombie-like state. What happens next? Julia Gray describes our coming era of half-dead internationalism
goodauthority.org
Zombie institutions could have "afterlives," but little power.
Zombie internationalism sees a slow, stumbling transformation, and decreased trust in international agreements and global institutions.
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like:
this is exhausting
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Version 2 of my dropbox command is out. This tool locates a user’s Dropbox folder automatically and adds an option to search a secondary drive before moving to the primary one. Installation instructions at github.com/arpie71/drop.... (Thanks to @kevinhorourke.bsky.social for suggesting changes)
github.com
GitHub - arpie71/dropbox
Contribute to arpie71/dropbox development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Peter Ungphakorn @coppetainpu.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Canada has challenged Trump's tariffs at the WTO. Clearly Trump won't care since the US can block any ruling (by appealing "into the void"), but Canada is also making a statement about the need to play by the rules. www.wto.org/english/news...
wto.org
Canada initiates WTO dispute complaint regarding US tariff measures
Canada has requested WTO dispute consultations with the United States regarding new tariff measures applied by the United States on goods originating in Canada. The request was circulated to WTO memb...
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
I've been thinking about this song a lot: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Az5d... I'm waiting for a Democratic politician to attempt a "decency" moment rather than a "gotcha" moment.
youtube.com
Exhuming McCarthy
YouTube video by R.E.M. - Topic
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Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Any parallels? "Selling Swamps Exchange..Leading Issues Tumble as Wall Street Assails the New Tariff"
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Matthew Connelly @mattspast.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
I'm thinking of starting a "today in (recent) history" feature, reminding everyone of all Trump's idiot moves during the one major crisis of his first administration. But then I already missed February 27, 2020, when he said "it's like a miracle, it will disappear"
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history-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Applications for Archives as Data are open until the end of March! 📅 Decisions will be announced shortly after. Don’t miss this opportunity—submit your application today! lab.history.columbia.edu/content/work... #ArchivesAsData #DigitalHistory #OpenData
lab.history.columbia.edu
Workshops | History Lab
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Reposted by Raymond Hicks
Matthew Connelly @mattspast.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Non-coders can also explore and download thousands of docs from the CIA, NATO, State Dept., etc. on our new website: lab.history.columbia.edu
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Reposted by Raymond Hicks
history-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
📢Into US Foreign Policy or text analysis? This is for you! History Lab has released the full text+metadata from our FOIArchive on Hugging Face. 🔍 Perfect for exploring diplomatic history, NLP, & document analysis Repost to spread the word! 🗞️📡 #USForeignPolicy #DigitalHistory #TextAnalysis #OpenData
lab.history.columbia.edu
History Lab
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
One of the fun things about being a data nerd is finding data you forgot you collected. The annoying thing is remembering that you did not properly annotate and source the data since the collection was not finished.
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Is history repeating? In the 1930s, the US rewrote trade rules with the RTAA, locking in dominance via the principal-supplier rule—later enshrined in GATT. The indomitable Joanne Gowa & I studied how this shaped trade. Now, with tariffs & industrial policy, the US is at it again. Buckle up.
cambridge.org
“Big” Treaties, Small Effects | World Politics | Cambridge Core
“Big” Treaties, Small Effects - Volume 70 Issue 2
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Raymond Hicks @arpie71.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Cristina Bodea and I have released our CBI data at github.com/arpie71/CBId.... The data cover 144 countries for the years 1970 through 2020. The component scores for the index are also included. #CBIdata
github.com
GitHub - arpie71/CBIdata: Central bank independence dataset
Central bank independence dataset. Contribute to arpie71/CBIdata development by creating an account on GitHub.
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history-lab.bsky.social @history-lab.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Applications are now open for Archives as Data. A FREE @NEHgov workshop @Columbia June 2-13, 2025. It's a crash course for historians and archivists in analyzing digital & digitized texts with an intro to AI for advanced beginners: lab.history.columbia.edu/content/work... #twitterstorians
lab.history.columbia.edu
Workshops | History Lab
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