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https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/israels-operation-rising-lion-6-19-25-update/

For these charts, data, and other analysis of the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, read JINSA’s daily Operation Rising Lion Update: t.co/EnflgCuZfp

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Iran has continued to launch smaller waves before a larger barrage. It launched fewer waves & total missiles and put more time between attacks during the evening of 6/18 than 6/17. This may reflect Iran wanting to coax complacency before larger attacks or lost launch capacity.

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Iran launched 20% more ballistic missiles per wave during the early morning today than it did during the early morning yesterday. Iran launched 2 waves during the early morning hours of both days.

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During the early morning hours today, Iran launched 30 ballistic missiles, its largest single ballistic missile attack since 6/16. Iran has launched roughly 491 ballistic missiles at Israel since 6/13.

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If Israel degrades Iran’s launch capabilities at the current rate, by June 19, Iran will have lost half of the total 360 launchers that it had before Operation Rising Lion.

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With a trend in decreased ballistic missile launches, Iran has increased its use of drones. Iran may increasingly look to supplement its ballistic missiles with drones or cruise missiles as its capacity of missiles and launchers continues to decrease.

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Although Iran has retaliated repeatedly against Israel, the number of ballistic missiles it has launched during each wave has decreased by at least 66 percent compared to Iran’s 2024 attacks because of Israeli strikes eliminating missile launchers and stockpile.

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https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/iranian-ballistic-missile-estimates/

The longer the exchange of fire continues, the more likely Iran will be unwilling or unable to mount large barrages as it loses missile launchers & stockpile or seeks to preserve capabilities. My estimate for future Iranian ballistic missile launches: t.co/sSGp3eAAaI

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According to JINSA estimates, Israeli strikes could eliminate 1/2 of Iran’s missile launchers, resulting in Iran’s rate of fire dropping below 20 ballistic missiles per day, as soon as 6/19. Iran’s missile stockpile could be reduced to <500 ballistic missiles as soon as 6/23.

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Iran retaliated against Israel with only 50% as many projectiles as it did in October. Iran may not have launched ballistic missiles because: 🔥Israel targeted Iranian launch capabilities, 💀Israel killed its senior leadership, 🦥Iran was not prepared, or ⏰Iran may fire later.

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The coordinated operation between the Israeli Air Force and Mossad struck over 400% more targets than during Israel's last attack against Iran in October.

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The objectives of the operation include neutralizing: 🪖High ranking military commanders, ⚛️Nuclear engineers and facilities, ✈️Iranian air defenses, and 🚀Ground-to-ground capabilities, including drones and missiles.

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In just the opening phase of Israel's Operation Rising Lion, 200 Israeli aircraft struck 100 targets using 330 munitions, hitting military locations, nuclear sites, and killing >20 Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. A 🧵 with my analysis for JINSA. jinsa.org/jinsa_report...

Israel’s Operation Rising Lion: 6/13/25 Update - JINSA

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s (JINSA) Iran Projectile Tracker presents regularly updated charts and graphs on missiles, rockets, drones, and mortars that Iran and its regiona...

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.@jeremydiamond.bsky.social is reporting the US is reforming the regional coalition that helped defend Israel when Iran attacked in April 2024. A key recommendation from JINSA’s report was to move from an ad hoc coalition to a formal one that doesn’t need to be rebuilt before every attack.

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As Israel & the US prepare for an Iranian retaliation, a JINSA report out last week offers key lessons from the 2 previous Iranian attacks against Israel. In both attacks, the US played a central role in helping defend Israel. The same should be true if Iran attacks again. jinsa.org/jinsa_report...

Forged Under Fire: Middle East Air Defense After Iran’s 2024 Attacks on Israel - JINSA

The scene: Two combat jets race through the night sky on opposite sides of the Saudi-Jordanian border. In one cockpit, a pilot from the Royal Saudi Air Force. In the other, one of Israel’s top air com...

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Fred Guttenberg @fredguttenberg.bsky.social · 24/05/2025

The Trump admin is already distancing itself from Israel’s strikes. This is a dangerous mistake. Rubio doesn’t signal if the Trump admin supports the strikes or if the US is prepared to help defend Israel against an Iranian attack as it did in April and October last year.

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Reposted by Ari Cicurel

In a week where the reality of antisemitism resulted in the gun violence murder of two people in DC, the Secretary of Defense just made a known antisemite his new Deputy Press Secretary. For the Jewish people who voted for this, help me understand why? www.npr.org/2025/03/06/n...

npr.org

A Pentagon press secretary has history of pushing antisemitic, extremist theories

Members of Congress and civil rights groups are condemning past comments from Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson, including some which critics called antisemitic.

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Reposted by Ari Cicurel

Amy Spitalnick @amyspitalnick.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

I want to underscore the vulnerability that the Jewish community is feeling today, following years in which we were already pretty scared (and in some spaces, gaslit about the reality of the threat). This was a Jewish event, at a Jewish museum. It feels like it could have been any of us.

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Reports indicating Iran pressured the Houthis to end their fire to help nuclear talks suggest US strikes built diplomatic leverage, but by reaching an agreement with the Houthis, the Trump administration conceded that advantage before achieving any concessions from Iran. 10/10

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With the details of the truce murky, it is also unclear whether Trump would restart the US campaign against the Houthis—and to what level of intensity—if it continues its attacks on Israel and/or commercial shipping. 9/10

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Without persistent strikes against the Houthis, the Trump administration may soon redeploy US aircraft and aircraft carriers away from the region, enabling them to serve key functions across the globe, but decreasing deterrence against the Houthis and Iran. 8/10

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The Houthis’ ability to maintain high levels of fire during the US campaign and achieve operational successes against US ships, US aircraft, and Israel indicates it remains a potent threat—suggesting the US campaign had not significantly eroded their will & ability to fight. 7/10

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The Trump administration launched 1,200% more strikes per day once it began targeting the Houthis compared to the period when the Biden administration conducted strikes against the group in Yemen. 6/10

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The Trump administration conducted attacks against the Houthis every day from the beginning of the campaign on March 15 until May 5, compared to the Biden administration launching operations an average of once every three days, a 66% increase in tempo. 5/10

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The US launched 244 strikes against the Houthis during only the first five days of May, compared to 583 strikes throughout all of April and 300 strikes during the second half of March. 4/10

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The US launched 1,127 strikes since 3/15 against Houthi targets in Yemen, compared to only 628 in the 14 months beforehand, a 79.5% increase. The US expanded the size of its operations during the first week of May, launching 110% more strikes per day than during April. 3/10

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For more on the escalation of US and Houthi strikes and the impact of the truce, read my latest Houthi Projectile Update: jinsa.org/jinsa_report... 2/10

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Ari Cicurel @aricicurel.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

The truce Trump announced with the Houthis will leave the terrorist threat intact, without any indication it will bring an end to Houthi strikes on Israel or restore shipping in the Red Sea. A🧵with my analysis & charts from JINSA’s Houthi Projectile Tracker below. 1/10

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Large fires around Jerusalem have led to multiple areas being evacuated and the cancellation of Independence Day events throughout Israel due to weather caused by the fires.

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Ari Cicurel @aricicurel.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

The latest JINSA data on US strikes against the Houthis appeared in this morning’s @axios.com future of defense newsletter: The US launched at least 612% more strikes in March than during all operations targeting the Houthis since November. @demarest-colin.bsky.social www.axios.com/newsletters/...

axios.com

Axios Future of Defense

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For more charts and data on Iran-linked attacks against US forces, Israel, and other partners in the Middle East, check out JINSA’s Iran Projectile Tracker: jinsa.org/iran-project...

Iran Projectile Tracker - JINSA

Updated March 19, 2025 Read more ›

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The Trump administration launched an average of 500 percent more strikes per operation against the Houthis compared to when the Biden administration launched strikes from January 2024 to January 2025.

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Since first striking the Houthis on March 15, the Trump administration has targeted the group every day, decreasing the number of days between operations by 66% compared to when the Biden administration launched operations from January 2024 to January 2025.

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The US launched 423% more strikes during its operation against the Houthis in March 2025 alone than it had during all of its operations targeting the Iran-backed terrorist group in Yemen since November 2024.

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