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Fred Carver

@arbeider4fred.bsky.social
278 followers 465 following 525 posts

Advice for hire. Occasional writing, editing, speaking. Atrocity Prevention, Peacekeeping, UN, South Asia. Based in Bergen, NO. frederichcarver.com

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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
And seniority? Mediocre person whose turn it is reacting poorly to mediocre person whose turn it is losing their turn.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I don't think it's a good message but presumably it comes from polling. But the wording's awful. I get that they couldn't write "Zack has a strong track record in Camden, he was an active member of Camden Lib Dems for many years, working to get Sagal's dad elected" but they could do better than this
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I still think a Lib Dem breakthrough is underpriced. Being no one's least favoured option and having a good groundgame is really not a terrible place to be going into a chaotic and fragmented election.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
As you probably suspected, the answer is: everyone cites conflicting precedents and then they give it Dag's niece until the end of the season. Oh so very UN.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
What happens if the UN Security Council cannot pick a new Secretary-General by the end of the year? It's very very possible so @benaldson.bsky.social and I outlined some of the options for @plataformacipo.bsky.social 1for8billion.org/if-security-...
1for8billion.org
If Security Council Can't Agree — 1 for 8 Billion
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A good start that Burnham went to UNGA, and that despite being the first UK PM since Hague era David Cameron not to set foreign policy directly from Number 10 but to actually have a non-titular Foreign Sec. Keir "I want to reach the top of foreign policy" Starmer didn't bother last year
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
If you google Denmark's highest mountain you will find a wikipedia page with a photo of a barn on it and the caption explains that the hill is hidden behind the barn.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My new editorial/introduction for SDG Action ahead of #unga sdg-action.org/looking-for-...
sdg-action.org
Looking for leadership | SDG Action
Indifference and hostility have created a leadership vacuum in development. But as practitioners do the best they can in challenging circumstances, they create their own forms of thought leadership
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
She lived a truly incredible life (essentially "what if Forrest Gump was an incredibly smart marxist?") and then wrote a fascinating but frustratingly incomplete memoir. I reviewed it here medium.com/freds-blog/m...
medium.com
Mokhtefi on Algiers
Another piece, this time a book review, I submitted on spec unsuccessfully. I wrote it nearly 3 years ago, for a magazine I co-edited so I…
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
I like that even tho it's literally in the charter it feels rude to mention it these days without giving you a cite
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Reposted by Fred Carver
Foreign Policy Centre @handle.invalid · 07/09/2026
🌐 New long read | The State of the UN The UN may be in poor shape, but it is far from useless. Ahead of #UNGA, Fred Carver asks what has been lost as the international order fragments and what the UN still provides as the “velvet rope of diplomacy”. ➡️ fpc.org.uk/long-read-th...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Pleasure to write this for @fpcthinktank.bsky.social on the current state of the UN, and what that means for the UK fpc.org.uk/long-read-th...
fpc.org.uk
Long Read | The State of the UN - The Foreign Policy Centre
What does a weakened United Nations mean for the UK? Fred Carver examines the state of the UN and where Britain can still exercise influence.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Important piece by two of the great peacebuilders of our time. Guterres wanted to be a mediation SG but only rarely did he invest the time and resources over the long term needed. Here's how the next SG can do better passblue.com/2026/08/30/b...
passblue.com
Being Serious About Peace - PassBlue
Being Serious About Peace - PassBlue
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Fantastic essay. One of the things I keep coming back to is that the centralisation of authority is neither necessary nor desirable for sustainable peace. Only thing I'd maybe add is I think a big part of why the myth persists is GWOT's hostility to the non-state actor odi.org/en/insights/...
odi.org
Beyond the unitary state: rethinking state-building in an age of fragmentation
In this blog, former UN Assistant Secretary General Sir Charles Petrie examines the question of state-building in an age of fragmentation, drawing on close to 40 years of experience working in conflic...
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Reposted by Fred Carver
Eugene Chen @casquebleu.org · 21/08/2026
The peace operations review report is out at long last. TL;DR: it effectively argues for the status quo. In this reaction piece, I highlight the areas I thought the report got wrong, the items that are missing entirely, and what member states should do now. casquebleu.substack.com/p/nothing-ne...
casquebleu.substack.com
Nothing new in the peace operations review
Just entities protecting their interests and passing the buck
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
One of the things this tragedy has taught me is that no one in journalism appears to have read Lucky Jim
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
leilacancode.github.io/everythinggo...
leilacancode.github.io
Everything Good About Jason Arday
First-hand accounts from people who knew him. Collected by his students.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
"Participation in peacekeeping should not be a financial burden to contributing countries. But it should not become the means by which to bankroll and cultivate the tools of authoritarian conflict management."
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Michela Wrong @michelawrong.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
The Continent magazine has published an investigation I carried out alongside Kenyan journo James Okong'o exposing how Rwanda's government manipulates social media - secretly paying influencers - in support of the M23 occupation of DRC. Thank you @pulitzercenter.org for your support.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
And now in @foreignpolicy.com with @benaldson.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/28/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Compromised Candidates
How backroom deals shape the race for secretary-general and prevent U.N. reform.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The first ever full second term for an HCHR. Aside from the usual suspects surprised by Trinidad, and Guyana's absention presumably has something to do with CRB's candidacy (maybe to keep the US sweet, maybe she wanted to pick her own HC?)
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
After all this isn't some cunning sly superplan, this is Advocacy 101. Anyway that's all by the by to my discussion with Eugene, which hopefully speaks for itself.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
... with no regard for the fact that much of the time strategies stop working if you spell out loud how they work! It seems to be that in many instances looking smart matters more than winning, and I don't want to fall into that trap. But at the same time one can be too precious about this stuff...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
To be honest I'm particularly grateful because I've been wanting to write something about theory of change for a while. I've been a little reluctant to do so because I do think a particularly bad downside of the cult of savviness is that people are far too willing to talk about strategies ...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Really grateful to @casquebleu.org for his thoughtful engagement with our Backroom Deals report. I've replied here. casquebleu.substack.com/p/living-wit...
casquebleu.substack.com
Fred Carver on Blue Helmets, Red Tape
I'm very grateful to Eugene for his thoughtful engagement with our report (Backroom Deals), and I'm glad that you were impressed by the research. Coming from you that means a lot. I'm replying in a p...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Here's Bhutan. Yetis and so forth medium.com/freds-blog/b...
medium.com
Bhutan — Tales of the Yeti
Kunzang Choden’s collection of folk tales felt authentic but samey
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Reposted by Fred Carver
Tom Clark @tom-clark.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
A top job at a top think tank And at a moment where there is suddenly a whole lot of policy thinking to be done! Come & help @ruthcurtice.bsky.social lead @resolutionfoundation.org www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
resolutionfoundation.org
Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is seeking a new Director, to work closely with the Chief Executive to develop and deliver the overall strategy of the organisation; to drive the next phase of the Foundation...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
And Ben and Aditi have an op-ed in @passblue.bsky.social with the key points passblue.com/2026/06/24/b...
passblue.com
Backroom Deals Behind Secretary-General Candidate Races - PassBlue
Backroom Deals Behind Secretary-General Candidate Races - PassBlue
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Direct PDF link here static1.squarespace.com/static/5399c...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
We were so lucky to have some really rich and insightful conversations with some 40 odd people with a wealth of knowledge and experience. What we uncovered is a mixture of fascinating and revealing detail and I believe some actual honest-to-god scoops
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
One of the most interesting projects I've done in a long time, working with @benaldson.bsky.social on a deep dive into the history of UN selection processes for 1 for 8 Billion and @plataformacipo.bsky.social It's now out! 1for8billion.org/backroom-deals
Backroom deals report
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Whoever comes next will likely inherit the precarity of a shallow landslide with no core support, but should at least be able to avoid some of those internal contradictions and be coherently ... something. But they do need to pick something. At this stage almost any vision is better than none
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
And then I might not like it but the Mcsweenyist late 90s tribute act of basically Charles Haughey's domestic policy with Tony Blair's foreign policy was at least coherent. But if you try and do both you sound silly and end up doing neither.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
He's a pre-digital pedantic legalistic stickler, they're techbro curious Atlanticists who think rules are for nerds and losers. I do think there could have been a coherent Starmerism which presented the UK as the last save haven for rules, long term thinking, and reliability. Mr slow and steady etc
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
2) Starmer was chosen by the Labour Together faction to be their face because they saw him as a credible blank slate. But actually his personality and their vision were completely incompatible.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Starmer had two big problems, the first well known, the second maybe somewhat overlooked: 1) if you win a mandate, even a landslide, on an entirely negative campaign around what you are not which advances no vision then you have no core ideological support to see you through the hard times
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
And then there's the Israel part of the equation. Directly Lebanon, indirectly the ways that Israeli securocrats benefit from a credibly threatening Iran
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
What's the best source of credible info on the damage Iran's nuclear capability has sustained? Good piece, although I'd say the incentive structures are different for different parts of the Iranian state - imagine IRGC won't want the civilian economy to do too well or the threat to recede too far
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
This is useful. I do keep going back to Graeber's the revolt of the caring classes to understand how we got here davidgraeber.org/articles/the... but I think this usefully maps out where (the UK at least) now is
davidgraeber.org
The Center Blows Itself Up
Politics, in wealthy countries, is increasingly becoming a war between the generations. While the support for smaller parties in the UK (Liberal Democrats, Greens, the Scottish National Party, even Br...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
theanarchistlibrary.org/library/davi...
theanarchistlibrary.org
There Never Was a West
David Graeber There Never Was a West Or, Democracy Emerges From the Spaces In Between 2007 From the collection “Possibilities: Essays on Hierarchy,...
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Reposted by Fred Carver
The Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The New Statesman asked me to put down a few thoughts about Belfast. On the politics and media that have failed everyone, and how much, and how little, has really changed. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
newstatesman.com
The Belfast riots: new targets, old hatred
This is the story of a hardcore loyalist element which has stewed for decades in far-right ideology
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Reposted by Fred Carver
Genevieve Carver @gen-carver.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
My book is out now! An adventure story for kids aged 8-12 featuring ancient rituals, a journey across the sea, and water spirits…@oneworldbooks.bsky.social
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
You would love Place of Greater Safety. Dunno if Earthsea is your cup of tea really but it is outstanding. Way better than the imitators that followed in its wake. The writing and the worldbuilding are both excellent, but minimalist, which gives you a lot of space to explore.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Also think you could do a great Downton style sprawling soap out of A Place of Greater Safety.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Earthsea always struck me as a complete no brainer for a prestige TV miniseries. The only reason not to seems to be that le Guin adaptations are always cursed and terrible. But couldn't they, you know, just do it well? I think it would be very easy to do well.
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Was an absolute pleasure to contribute to @ibvprev.bsky.social's visits to Greenland and Denmark at the start of this year. It informed this wonderful report on the role of resilience in democratic defence and European security img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/13...
img1.wsimg.com
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
My sis's book comes out today it looks amazing oneworld-publications.com/work/the-oce... @gen-carver.bsky.social
oneworld-publications.com
The Ocean and the Bones | Oneworld
In a pre-historic world where the spirits are fickle and the people are cautious, Little Meg is a Sunhealer's apprentice. She must learn to read the signs of nature and commune with the spirits to gui...
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Iirc the wording in the UK is "a fair game of chance" so I think a poker hand would be admissible as long as you had to play the cards you were dealt
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Happy International Workers' day: what better way to commemorate Spies, Parsons, Fischer, and Engel than by joining the IWW? www.iww.org
iww.org
Industrial Workers of the World
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Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Reminds me of that Private Eye bit "I always felt a bit sorry for Mark Thatcher. I mean we were all illegally selling guns to Iran, he just picked the other side"
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