Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 30/09/2026And seniority? Mediocre person whose turn it is reacting poorly to mediocre person whose turn it is losing their turn. 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 25/09/2026I don't think it's a good message but presumably it comes from polling. But the wording's awful. I get that they couldn't write "Zack has a strong track record in Camden, he was an active member of Camden Lib Dems for many years, working to get Sagal's dad elected" but they could do better than this 141
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/09/2026I still think a Lib Dem breakthrough is underpriced. Being no one's least favoured option and having a good groundgame is really not a terrible place to be going into a chaotic and fragmented election. 110
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/09/2026As you probably suspected, the answer is: everyone cites conflicting precedents and then they give it Dag's niece until the end of the season. Oh so very UN. 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/09/2026What happens if the UN Security Council cannot pick a new Secretary-General by the end of the year? It's very very possible so @benaldson.bsky.social and I outlined some of the options for @plataformacipo.bsky.social 1for8billion.org/if-security-...1for8billion.orgIf Security Council Can't Agree — 1 for 8 Billion 011
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 23/09/2026A good start that Burnham went to UNGA, and that despite being the first UK PM since Hague era David Cameron not to set foreign policy directly from Number 10 but to actually have a non-titular Foreign Sec. Keir "I want to reach the top of foreign policy" Starmer didn't bother last year 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/09/2026If you google Denmark's highest mountain you will find a wikipedia page with a photo of a barn on it and the caption explains that the hill is hidden behind the barn. 170
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 15/09/2026My new editorial/introduction for SDG Action ahead of #unga sdg-action.org/looking-for-...sdg-action.orgLooking for leadership | SDG ActionIndifference and hostility have created a leadership vacuum in development. But as practitioners do the best they can in challenging circumstances, they create their own forms of thought leadership 010
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 13/09/2026She lived a truly incredible life (essentially "what if Forrest Gump was an incredibly smart marxist?") and then wrote a fascinating but frustratingly incomplete memoir. I reviewed it here medium.com/freds-blog/m...medium.comMokhtefi on AlgiersAnother piece, this time a book review, I submitted on spec unsuccessfully. I wrote it nearly 3 years ago, for a magazine I co-edited so I… 001
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 07/09/2026I like that even tho it's literally in the charter it feels rude to mention it these days without giving you a cite 110
Reposted by Fred CarverForeign Policy Centre @handle.invalid · 07/09/2026🌐 New long read | The State of the UN The UN may be in poor shape, but it is far from useless. Ahead of #UNGA, Fred Carver asks what has been lost as the international order fragments and what the UN still provides as the “velvet rope of diplomacy”. ➡️ fpc.org.uk/long-read-th... 002
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Pleasure to write this for @fpcthinktank.bsky.social on the current state of the UN, and what that means for the UK fpc.org.uk/long-read-th...fpc.org.ukLong Read | The State of the UN - The Foreign Policy CentreWhat does a weakened United Nations mean for the UK? Fred Carver examines the state of the UN and where Britain can still exercise influence. 011
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Important piece by two of the great peacebuilders of our time. Guterres wanted to be a mediation SG but only rarely did he invest the time and resources over the long term needed. Here's how the next SG can do better passblue.com/2026/08/30/b...passblue.comBeing Serious About Peace - PassBlueBeing Serious About Peace - PassBlue 001
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/08/2026Fantastic essay. One of the things I keep coming back to is that the centralisation of authority is neither necessary nor desirable for sustainable peace. Only thing I'd maybe add is I think a big part of why the myth persists is GWOT's hostility to the non-state actor odi.org/en/insights/...odi.orgBeyond the unitary state: rethinking state-building in an age of fragmentationIn this blog, former UN Assistant Secretary General Sir Charles Petrie examines the question of state-building in an age of fragmentation, drawing on close to 40 years of experience working in conflic... 000
Reposted by Fred CarverEugene Chen @casquebleu.org · 21/08/2026The peace operations review report is out at long last. TL;DR: it effectively argues for the status quo. In this reaction piece, I highlight the areas I thought the report got wrong, the items that are missing entirely, and what member states should do now. casquebleu.substack.com/p/nothing-ne...casquebleu.substack.comNothing new in the peace operations reviewJust entities protecting their interests and passing the buck 012
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 19/08/2026One of the things this tragedy has taught me is that no one in journalism appears to have read Lucky Jim 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 18/08/2026leilacancode.github.io/everythinggo...leilacancode.github.ioEverything Good About Jason ArdayFirst-hand accounts from people who knew him. Collected by his students. 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 07/08/2026"Participation in peacekeeping should not be a financial burden to contributing countries. But it should not become the means by which to bankroll and cultivate the tools of authoritarian conflict management." 000
Reposted by Fred CarverMichela Wrong @michelawrong.bsky.social · 01/08/2026The Continent magazine has published an investigation I carried out alongside Kenyan journo James Okong'o exposing how Rwanda's government manipulates social media - secretly paying influencers - in support of the M23 occupation of DRC. Thank you @pulitzercenter.org for your support. 13925
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 28/07/2026And now in @foreignpolicy.com with @benaldson.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/28/u...foreignpolicy.comCompromised CandidatesHow backroom deals shape the race for secretary-general and prevent U.N. reform. 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026The first ever full second term for an HCHR. Aside from the usual suspects surprised by Trinidad, and Guyana's absention presumably has something to do with CRB's candidacy (maybe to keep the US sweet, maybe she wanted to pick her own HC?) 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026After all this isn't some cunning sly superplan, this is Advocacy 101. Anyway that's all by the by to my discussion with Eugene, which hopefully speaks for itself. 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026... with no regard for the fact that much of the time strategies stop working if you spell out loud how they work! It seems to be that in many instances looking smart matters more than winning, and I don't want to fall into that trap. But at the same time one can be too precious about this stuff... 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026To be honest I'm particularly grateful because I've been wanting to write something about theory of change for a while. I've been a little reluctant to do so because I do think a particularly bad downside of the cult of savviness is that people are far too willing to talk about strategies ... 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/07/2026Really grateful to @casquebleu.org for his thoughtful engagement with our Backroom Deals report. I've replied here. casquebleu.substack.com/p/living-wit...casquebleu.substack.comFred Carver on Blue Helmets, Red TapeI'm very grateful to Eugene for his thoughtful engagement with our report (Backroom Deals), and I'm glad that you were impressed by the research. Coming from you that means a lot. I'm replying in a p... 110
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/07/2026Here's Bhutan. Yetis and so forth medium.com/freds-blog/b...medium.comBhutan — Tales of the YetiKunzang Choden’s collection of folk tales felt authentic but samey 000
Reposted by Fred CarverTom Clark @tom-clark.bsky.social · 29/06/2026A top job at a top think tank And at a moment where there is suddenly a whole lot of policy thinking to be done! Come & help @ruthcurtice.bsky.social lead @resolutionfoundation.org www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...resolutionfoundation.orgDirector • Resolution FoundationThe Resolution Foundation is seeking a new Director, to work closely with the Chief Executive to develop and deliver the overall strategy of the organisation; to drive the next phase of the Foundation... 01414
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026And Ben and Aditi have an op-ed in @passblue.bsky.social with the key points passblue.com/2026/06/24/b...passblue.comBackroom Deals Behind Secretary-General Candidate Races - PassBlueBackroom Deals Behind Secretary-General Candidate Races - PassBlue 012
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026Direct PDF link here static1.squarespace.com/static/5399c... 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026We were so lucky to have some really rich and insightful conversations with some 40 odd people with a wealth of knowledge and experience. What we uncovered is a mixture of fascinating and revealing detail and I believe some actual honest-to-god scoops 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 24/06/2026One of the most interesting projects I've done in a long time, working with @benaldson.bsky.social on a deep dive into the history of UN selection processes for 1 for 8 Billion and @plataformacipo.bsky.social It's now out! 1for8billion.org/backroom-deals 131
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Whoever comes next will likely inherit the precarity of a shallow landslide with no core support, but should at least be able to avoid some of those internal contradictions and be coherently ... something. But they do need to pick something. At this stage almost any vision is better than none 000
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026And then I might not like it but the Mcsweenyist late 90s tribute act of basically Charles Haughey's domestic policy with Tony Blair's foreign policy was at least coherent. But if you try and do both you sound silly and end up doing neither. 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026He's a pre-digital pedantic legalistic stickler, they're techbro curious Atlanticists who think rules are for nerds and losers. I do think there could have been a coherent Starmerism which presented the UK as the last save haven for rules, long term thinking, and reliability. Mr slow and steady etc 110
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/20262) Starmer was chosen by the Labour Together faction to be their face because they saw him as a credible blank slate. But actually his personality and their vision were completely incompatible. 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Starmer had two big problems, the first well known, the second maybe somewhat overlooked: 1) if you win a mandate, even a landslide, on an entirely negative campaign around what you are not which advances no vision then you have no core ideological support to see you through the hard times 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 18/06/2026And then there's the Israel part of the equation. Directly Lebanon, indirectly the ways that Israeli securocrats benefit from a credibly threatening Iran 010
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 18/06/2026What's the best source of credible info on the damage Iran's nuclear capability has sustained? Good piece, although I'd say the incentive structures are different for different parts of the Iranian state - imagine IRGC won't want the civilian economy to do too well or the threat to recede too far 110
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 17/06/2026This is useful. I do keep going back to Graeber's the revolt of the caring classes to understand how we got here davidgraeber.org/articles/the... but I think this usefully maps out where (the UK at least) now isdavidgraeber.orgThe Center Blows Itself UpPolitics, in wealthy countries, is increasingly becoming a war between the generations. While the support for smaller parties in the UK (Liberal Democrats, Greens, the Scottish National Party, even Br... 010
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 16/06/2026theanarchistlibrary.org/library/davi...theanarchistlibrary.orgThere Never Was a WestDavid Graeber There Never Was a West Or, Democracy Emerges From the Spaces In Between 2007 From the collection “Possibilities: Essays on Hierarchy,... 000
Reposted by Fred CarverThe Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 12/06/2026The New Statesman asked me to put down a few thoughts about Belfast. On the politics and media that have failed everyone, and how much, and how little, has really changed. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...newstatesman.comThe Belfast riots: new targets, old hatredThis is the story of a hardcore loyalist element which has stewed for decades in far-right ideology 6276110
Reposted by Fred CarverGenevieve Carver @gen-carver.bsky.social · 06/06/2026My book is out now! An adventure story for kids aged 8-12 featuring ancient rituals, a journey across the sea, and water spirits…@oneworldbooks.bsky.social 022
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/06/2026You would love Place of Greater Safety. Dunno if Earthsea is your cup of tea really but it is outstanding. Way better than the imitators that followed in its wake. The writing and the worldbuilding are both excellent, but minimalist, which gives you a lot of space to explore. 010
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/06/2026Also think you could do a great Downton style sprawling soap out of A Place of Greater Safety. 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 06/06/2026Earthsea always struck me as a complete no brainer for a prestige TV miniseries. The only reason not to seems to be that le Guin adaptations are always cursed and terrible. But couldn't they, you know, just do it well? I think it would be very easy to do well. 100
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 05/06/2026Was an absolute pleasure to contribute to @ibvprev.bsky.social's visits to Greenland and Denmark at the start of this year. It informed this wonderful report on the role of resilience in democratic defence and European security img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/13...img1.wsimg.com 020
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 04/06/2026My sis's book comes out today it looks amazing oneworld-publications.com/work/the-oce... @gen-carver.bsky.socialoneworld-publications.comThe Ocean and the Bones | OneworldIn a pre-historic world where the spirits are fickle and the people are cautious, Little Meg is a Sunhealer's apprentice. She must learn to read the signs of nature and commune with the spirits to gui... 010
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 08/05/2026Iirc the wording in the UK is "a fair game of chance" so I think a poker hand would be admissible as long as you had to play the cards you were dealt 110
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 01/05/2026Happy International Workers' day: what better way to commemorate Spies, Parsons, Fischer, and Engel than by joining the IWW? www.iww.orgiww.orgIndustrial Workers of the World 020
Fred Carver @arbeider4fred.bsky.social · 01/05/2026Reminds me of that Private Eye bit "I always felt a bit sorry for Mark Thatcher. I mean we were all illegally selling guns to Iran, he just picked the other side" 000