Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 06/08/2026to Oregon, where it is smoky from all the wildfires 211
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 06/08/2026Coming back from Germany where it was hot and rivers were running low www.wetteronline.de/pegelstaende 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026temperature dominates the feedback for low emission scenarios. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026A surprising finding of the study was that while circulation effects dominate the feedback for high emission scenarios 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026The nice thing about the decomposition is that it tells you exactly how much each component is impacted. This example shows the effects of each forcing (temperature, circulation and sea ice) on each component for a high emission scenario. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026all of which impact ocean carbon storage. Changes in the physical forcing factors lead to reduced ocean carbon uptake and thus higher atmospheric CO2, a positive feedback called the climate-carbon cycle feedback. The figure is for a high emission scenario for which circulation effects dominate. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026and biological processes such as export production 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026both physical processes such as the ocean's Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) 120
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026Each component can be further separated into physical and biological contributions. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 25/06/2026🚨 📰 🌊 🥼 💻 🧪 🧑🔬 New publication on future changes in ocean carbon cycling lead by Samar Khatiwala. We applied a new decomposition into preformed (saturation and disequilibrium) and regenerated (soft tissue and carbonate) components, which is more accurate that previous methods. 1144
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 30/05/2026The new (AR7) scenarios include what seems to me like ridiculously large negative emissions. 020
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 30/05/2026You could argue the same (overly optimistic scenarios) again today for low emission scenarios. SSP1-2.6 and SSP1-1.9 both assume negative emissions during the second half of this century. 130
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 27/05/2026Just because funding is cut and information is not getting made public doesn't mean the Greenland ice sheet stops melting. 150
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 06/05/2026Global temperatures (30-year averages) over the last 2000 years. Rates-of-Change in the following ... 132
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 05/05/2026Not only are CO2 concentrations at record high, growth rates have also been increasing with records since 2020. gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg... 131
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 01/05/2026Interesting article about a weather observatory that operated since the 1830s. The temperature trend there is 0.34 deg F per decade, or a 4.2 deg F increases since 1831. phys.org/news/2026-04... 093
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Maternal death in US vs other countries 021
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 17/04/2026The recent warming is also unusual compared with the past 10,000 years. 020
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 17/04/2026The hockey stick's blade is getting longer. Global temperatures over the past 2000 years. Temperatures over the past 30 years were 0.75 warmer than the 1901-2000 average. Warmer than at any time during the past 2000 years. 2124
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Whereas the maximum (mode) has shifted towards warmer temperatures in the latter part. 010
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026The earlier part of the record has more extreme cold events. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026This large weather noise is why (human-caused) temperature trends at local scales are more difficult to detect. It also illustrates why it is difficult for us humans to notice climate change. Here is a histogram of the full 1939-2026 record. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Looking at smaller spatial and temporal scales, we can see a lot of variability, e.g. in temperatures from a certain day of the year (Jan 12) in Eugene, Oregon, year-to-year fluctuations are easily 20 deg F (10 deg C), and thus much larger than the trend (~0.8 deg F/Decade or ~0.4 deg C/Decade). 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Whereas over the ocean it is only half of that (0.14 deg C/Decade). And since two thirds of the Earth's surface is ocean, the global (land & ocean) mean trend of 0.2 deg C/Decade is closer to that of the ocean. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Land warms more than the ocean. The trend over the past 50 years is 0.32 deg C/Decade. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026The later period has a broader distribution due to the trend. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026But this seems to be a result of the trend in the data. When you plot the histogram of the early period only, it is much more symmetric. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026A histogram of the same data shows a very asymmetric shape with a fat tail at the warmer temperatures. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Climate Science 101: This term I'm teaching climate science and I may share some of the things here too. Observations show global temperatures are going up. Over the last 50 years there is a near-linear trend. This graph is from NOAA's climate at a glance website: www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit... 120
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 23/02/2026Snowdays have been decreasing in Germany since the 1960’s, a trend consistent with human-caused warming. I remember regularly skiing sledding and snowball battles as a kid. These days kids grow up without those experiences. 😢 www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/th... 210
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 23/10/2025Modern human-caused sea level rise in China breaks 4,000-year stability. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 021
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 19/09/2025I've asked ChatGPT to compare the most recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with the recent DOE report on climate in terms of numbers of authors, pages, and citations. Here is the result: IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6) had 721 authors. DOE report had 5. 230
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/08/2025Some good points in this article but it misses the main cause for the extreme numbers of mass shootings in the US: the number of guns. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/o... 020
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 10/07/2025Looks like America is getting greater by the day. 211
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 06/06/2025And here's the data from NOAA's website. Thank you NOAA! gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ 010
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 09/05/2025I‘ve received this award for the open climate textbook open.oregonstate.education/climatechange/ 040
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 31/03/2025The notion in Germany. From a local newspaper. 110
Andreas Schmittner @andreasschmittner.bsky.social · 23/02/2025He clearly deliberately lies. Why does anyone still believe anything he says? 000
