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Simon @analytic.football · 12/10/2026

Indeed, this is exactly what the *EU* did in the negotiation with the UK during Brexit. So why didn't they run rings round them

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Simon @analytic.football · 08/10/2026

And of course, to finish, the ratings before and after (old ones on the left).

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Simon @analytic.football · 08/10/2026

And some extremely fun front-end bits: - You can select any number of results for the upcoming fixtures and see how it affects the projections - Shot volume/quality graphs have arrived, along with xG vs finishing PL live now, gonna retrain the Championship on the new model over the next few weeks

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Simon @analytic.football · 20/09/2026

They were going to join the super league 😭

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Simon @analytic.football · 08/09/2026

analytic.football is now using Opta data as the xG input, as the last bastion of only-cheaply-paywalled Statsbomb xG seems to be gone It meant a full retune, and the finishing module got a couple of upgrades (handling conditionality of rebounds better). New ratings on the left.

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Simon @analytic.football · 01/09/2026

Looking at the window as a whole though, every other department bar CM (no change) is better. The first team, age profile and squad depth are all improved throughout, and we also managed to clear out a lot of the players not involved last season All in all, assuming Bahoya and no more, it's an 8?

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Simon @analytic.football · 21/08/2026

Comparing with @elevenify.com and @solioanalytics.com - my model is lower on Liverpool than those 2, and I would expect some bounce back pretty quickly. Fulham/Palace other place with consensus scepticism. Think Fulham more at risk of age, squad degrading & manager downgrade.

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Simon @analytic.football · 21/08/2026

We are under an hour away from kick off so it really is "just in time" for the final projections. A final few small bug fixes, improvements to the Monte Carlo uncertainty layer and getting the coefficients tuned to the nth decimal, we land here. Some comments below 👇

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Simon @analytic.football · 21/08/2026

New stadium is definitely a big part of it (~£80m), but growth in commercial revenue last 10 years is the undertold story

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Simon @analytic.football · 15/08/2026

Championship projections are also live (for the first time Leeds aren't in it 🫣) and this was the state before any matches were played Bolton's win against Preston a nice early swing for them

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Simon @analytic.football · 13/08/2026

Big q to me is why anyone is using Fable

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Simon @analytic.football · 08/08/2026

Hard to overstate the level of parity 3-7, but yeah, the model likes Brighton!

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/08/2026

All round it's had a bit of spit and polish, and should now be fully responsive to all device sizes, and you can still do all the old stuff like see the ratings, histories and season performances.

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/08/2026

There's a new team overview page which gives you the ability to look at everything for that team in one place. You can see the state of the races they are involved in, and what's required to make it. It also has season performance & rating history, upcoming matches and outcome projections

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/08/2026

There are new cards for upcoming matches which now gives you scoreline probabilities and a bunch of supplemental downstream calculations You can now see the projected points distribution for each team.

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/08/2026

First up, some new stuff - you can now see the history for the key races at each point in the season. The Monte Carlo sims also now account for the uncertainty in the model rating (i.e. wider early in the season and for promoted teams), so should be calibrated to reality now

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/08/2026

New season means a new design for analytic.football, so here's a little rundown of what you can do And of course, the projections

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Simon @analytic.football · 22/05/2026

On Slot: they are worse than any point in the previous 8 years, comparisons to previous Klopp dips just don't hold up. Attack has been getting worse since the moment he walked in the door and I don't believe he's *the* elite defensive guy to compensate Imo Liverpool would be dummies to keep him

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Simon @analytic.football · 12/05/2026

Obviously, summers are unpredictable and it's not always possible to achieve everything, but I think this would be an ideal template:

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Simon @analytic.football · 12/05/2026

That leaves the squad looking something like this. Let's go position by position: GK: Darlow & Cairns contracts both expiring and Perri doesn't look like the answer as no. 1 here. Club could go in lots of ways - I would renew Darlow as no.2, Cairns as no.3, sell Perri and sign a new no. 1

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/04/2026

Fuck off fuck off fuck off fuck off fuck off

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Simon @analytic.football · 04/04/2026

Personally would just question the premise Bluesky is dying, looks pretty healthy to me

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Simon @analytic.football · 30/03/2026

Sir may I introduce you to a United Kingdom* *not serious analysis

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Simon @analytic.football · 14/03/2026

Football fans know the easy solution here

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Simon @analytic.football · 11/02/2026

Flicking through the sims, model gives us a roughly 50% chance of staying up if we finish on 36 points, roughly 90% on 40 points. Definitely a decent chance of a high bar, model likes our chances of picking up enough points though

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Simon @analytic.football · 11/02/2026

Thomas Frank did nothing to stop the continuing decline of Spurs

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/02/2026

Schedule and red card adjusted xG tables (with optional finishing estimates applied), and upcoming match predictions Happy hunting. analytic.football btw

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/02/2026

The complete rating history for all teams going back to 17/18, and you can view a single team's breakdown, or compare any number of teams on attack/defence/overall rating

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/02/2026

How good the teams are, and how the ratings have changed recently/since the start of the season

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/02/2026

Projections for how the table will finish, including mean points, position probability & a view on key races.

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Simon @analytic.football · 04/02/2026

Someone tell the BBC Chelsea were doing this under Maresca

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Simon @analytic.football · 18/01/2026

Absolutely killer chart backing up what we all know - Starmer chasing the anti-immigrant vote isn't going to work

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Simon @analytic.football · 30/11/2025

As you do fewer things at outlier level it gets harder to justify needing to carry a defensive deadweight

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Simon @analytic.football · 18/11/2025

So how does is impact the ratings? In general, it sees the division with roughly the same shape, though it does moderate positions on Palace, Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth & Sunderland towards bookie/other model consensus

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Simon @analytic.football · 18/11/2025

About to push some decent upgrades to the model at analytic.football Big change is model now uses recent average errors to move future ratings - so less fluctuation in the ratings but still moving as quickly when it is consistently wrong Result is less bouncy ratings (new ones on the left)

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Simon @analytic.football · 13/11/2025

Judging from Mandelson, Rayner, this means he should be in his last 48 hours in the job

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Simon @analytic.football · 12/11/2025

Folks what are we doing here this is completely meaningless

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Simon @analytic.football · 21/08/2025

Big notes of caution on reading Okafor's FBRef bars, very few minutes and a bunch as striker, with massive sub effects. Taking out the striker mins, and accounting for sub effects. Last 2 seasons Moves the ball into the box a bunch, nice outlet carrier & dribbler, hope he can add more shots

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Simon @analytic.football · 14/08/2025

Model output and projections for the new PL season. ***Model has no off-season info, so is rating teams on their May 2025 level, it will adjust pretty quick as we get some matches played*** I expect Brentford, Wolves to be worse than model suggests I expect Tottenham to be better

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Simon @analytic.football · 25/07/2025

All the football front offices conspiring to make Luke Edwards look like a right tit is so funny. Seven minutes between these

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Simon @analytic.football · 08/07/2025

I don't think #lufc are signing a 10 this window. Longstaff in 23/24 was v different to last season. Between this, Diarra/Sadiki on the list it's imo pretty clear we are looking for pressy box-crasher from that 3rd midfielder, not a creative passer (though the other 2 can ball carry for days too)

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Simon @analytic.football · 07/07/2025

2nd Scottish referendum inevitable with something like this I think

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Simon @analytic.football · 25/04/2025

I dunno, signing off with "far more likely" seems a lot more than 60% to me!, But YMMV

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Simon @analytic.football · 15/04/2025

Yeah model thinks Burnley have got the rub of the green in a big way, especially when your attack was complete shite first half of the season. Leeds probably best numbers in 10 years, and the worst chasing pack by the model, bookies similar I think

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Simon @analytic.football · 14/04/2025

We are close, really close, but 99% is not 100%

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Simon @analytic.football · 14/04/2025

2 more wins would be almost certain yeah, quite likely we could get away with less but I'd prefer not to

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