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Amber Dellar

@amberdellar.bsky.social
476 followers 244 following 189 posts

Researcher, public services @instituteforgovernment.org.uk. Focusing on schools and local government, particularly children's social care and homelessness. She/her

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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
@theguardian.com have done a great write up in today's paper. And I will be posting another thread over the next few days to talk about more of the report's findings! [9/9]
theguardian.com
Labour Send changes at risk as parents rush to secure support, say experts
Overhaul of special education in England could unravel, thinktank finds, because of ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
So, we recommend DfE reviews its timetable for reducing reliance on EHCPs. If ministers no longer believe that timetable is achievable, they should either revise it, or strengthen the reforms needed to deliver it. [8/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
3️⃣There is a risk that reforms themselves could fuel demand for EHCPs in the short-term. With uncertainty over what will replace EHCPs, who will qualify, and the fact that children who secure one before 2029 will retain it, the reforms create a “use it before you lose it” dynamic. [7/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
And until the law is changed, councils will remain bound by the current legal framework for EHCP eligibility. [6/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
2️⃣ It assumes EHCP growth will slow *before* its reforms are fully rolled out in 2030. It's unclear how this will happen. Investments made now will take time to bear fruit - as govt recognised when it opted for a slower, phased approach to reform. [5/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
There are a few more reasons to doubt the feasibility of the govt's projections: 1️⃣ Govt is starting from a higher level than it expected. It made its projections using 2025 data, but EHCPs rose by a record amount (13%) between 2025 and 2026. [4/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
But the assumptions baked into reform plans look optimistic. If growth in EHCPs continues at the average rate of the last few years (rather than accelerate further as it has consistently done) almost 1 in 10 pupils would be receiving an EHCP by 2030. DfE’s modelling puts that figure at 7.7%. [3/9]
A line chart from the Institute for Government of pupils with an education, health and care plan, actual and forecast, 2010–35, where the share has more than doubled since 2017, to 6.0%. The government forecasts a 7.7% peak in 2030, falling to 4.7%; continued growth would reach 9.2%.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 10h
Govt has a huge amount riding on its ability to make progress reducing EHCPs: - Getting to a preventative SEND system - Political credibility - Meeting its spending plans for this parliament [2/9]
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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 11h
The first excellent installment in this year's Performance Tracker looks at the state of the schools system in England Read below for info on: - the impact of SEND reforms - what academisation means for Burnham's reform agenda - progress on teacher recruitment And more
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 12h
@theguardian.com have done a great write up in today's paper. And I will be posting another thread over the next few days to talk about more of the report's findings! [9/9]
theguardian.com
Labour Send changes at risk as parents rush to secure support, say experts
Overhaul of special education in England could unravel, thinktank finds, because of ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 12h
So, we recommend DfE reviews its timetable for reducing reliance on EHCPs. If ministers no longer believe that timetable is achievable, they should either revise it, or strengthen the reforms needed to deliver it. [8/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 12h
3️⃣There is a risk that reforms themselves could fuel demand for EHCPs in the short-term. With uncertainty over what will replace EHCPs, who will qualify, and the fact that children who secure one before 2029 will retain it, the reforms create a “use it before you lose it” dynamic. [7/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 12h
And until the law is changed, councils will remain bound by the current legal framework for EHCP eligibility. [6/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 12h
2️⃣ It assumes EHCP growth will slow *before* its reforms are fully rolled out in 2030. It's unclear how this will happen. Investments made now will take time to bear fruit - as govt recognised when it opted for a slower, phased approach to reform. [5/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 12h
There are a few more reasons to doubt the feasibility of the govt's projections: 1️⃣ Govt is starting from a higher level than it expected. It made its projections using 2025 data, but EHCPs rose by a record amount (13%) between 2025 and 2026. [4/9]
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 12h
NEW: Plans to reduce EHCPs look optimistic and Burnham's public service reforms still need a plan for schools In our first IfG Performance Tracker chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, we look at how the government is performing on its schools agenda [1/9]
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Performance Tracker 2026: Schools | Institute for Government
The government must better measure success across its school priorities and set out a clear long-term vision for the structure of the school system.
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 13h
www.theguardian.com/education/20... Important @instituteforgovernment.org.uk by @amberdellar.bsky.social leading the news
theguardian.com
Labour Send changes at risk as parents rush to secure support, say experts
Overhaul of special education in England could unravel, thinktank finds, because of ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic
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Ben Paxton @drbenpaxton.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NEW IfG report out today on how government should approach reforming health and disability benefits The big takeaway: the system needs to better match people’s needs to the right support - through assessment reform, political leadership and more... www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Designing better incapacity benefits | Institute for Government
Personalising benefits and support is key to helping disabled people into work.
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Cassia Rowland @cassiarowland.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I was really pleased to join @kenmacdonald.bsky.social and Tim Owen on their Double Jeopardy podcast this morning to talk about early releases from prisons: what's actually going on, and why? Have a listen, or check out the IfG explainer: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/pr...
open.spotify.com
The Prisoner Release Scheme: Lurching From One Crisis to Another? Plus The Fatal Immorality of Mark Zuckerberg.
Double Jeopardy - UK Law and Politics · Episode
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Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Ministers have no plans to reopen the previous government’s curriculum and assessment review as part of education reforms announced by the prime minister, Schools Week understands schoolsweek.co.uk/government-d...
schoolsweek.co.uk
Burnham government won't reopen curriculum review
Education secretary Lucy Powell also understood to be committed to existing reform timetable
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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
This is a genuinely exciting announcement about Burnham's intention for public service reform There are some potentially massive changes to the way that services are funded and operate A few things that jumped out at me 👇 www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
Rewiring the State – Cabinet Statement (HTML)
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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
New comment: PM buy-in is needed to reform adult social care, so yesterday's speech was positive And political consensus would help. But waiting for consensus shouldn't stop reform, else Burnham risks becoming the latest PM to fail on social care www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comm...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham can’t take the politics out of social care reform | Institute for Government
The new PM will have to prioritise to make progress on social care during this parliament
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Sensible policy klaxon 🚨 Currently, if a 16 year old chooses to stay in school/college, their family can keep claiming benefits as before (notably child benefit). If they opt for an apprenticeship, the benefits stop. The system discourages apprenticeships. The DWP just announced a fix 🧵
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Cassia Rowland @cassiarowland.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The new prime minister is about to run out of prison spaces. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. But once again, there are no easy answers and just cancelling early releases is not a solution. The focus must be on public protection - including better protection in the community. 🧵
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
The government must focus on public protection when it comes to prison releases | Institute for Government
There are no easy answers to meeting the prison capacity challenge.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Some may say I'm biased... but I think this is a great piece Have a read!
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Zachary Leather @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org · 22/07/2026
Burnham’s instincts to turn to transport first are on the pulse of public opinion, the public service that people across the country seem most dissatisfied with
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Paddy McAlary @paddy-mcalary.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
🚨NEW REPORT from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk on government and academia How has the relationship changed? What does government still need to do to make the best of the UK’s leading research ecosystem? Thoughtful thoughts (and a link) from @teodorgrama.bsky.social below 👇👇
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Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Breaking: The schools minister Georgia Gould has been re-appointed as a Department for Education minister in Andy Burnham’s government, with her exact brief unconfirmed schoolsweek.co.uk/schools-mini...
schoolsweek.co.uk
Schools minister Georgia Gould stays on at DfE in reshuffle
London MP and key Starmer ally will remain a DfE minister, but with her exact role unconfirmed
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Megan Bryer @meganbryer.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Burnham’s cabinet is the first to achieve gender parity. And the Office for Equality and Opportunity will move to the MHCLG with Bridget Phillipson remaining in post as Minister for Women and Equalities. Here’s our IfG breakdown of what yesterday’s announcements mean for women in government … 🧵
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Rosa Hodgkin @rosahodgkin.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
As Ed Miliband looks set to leave DESNZ a short 🧵on the department's achievements with him as minister and where there's still work to do:
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Heloise Dunlop @hcdunlop.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
@jillongovt.bsky.social and I had a report ready to go but were pipped to the post by Burnham’s (predictable) decision to bring digital ID to an end. There were too many questions to answer and little that had been decided, making it an easier (and popular) decision than most will be for Burnham!
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Cassia Rowland @cassiarowland.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Moving people like Josh MacAlister & Georgia Gould in education, or Sarah Jones on the policing brief, would be a mistake. It would slow down or derail reform programmes while new ministers got up to speed, wasting more time and effort. Great piece from @timdurrant.bsky.social here
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham’s first reshuffle should resist a sweeping change of junior ministers | Institute for Government
Beyond refreshing his Cabinet, keeping most ministers in their current roles is Burnham’s best chance of getting things done in government.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Good news, and... One of the big positives in the Starmer govt’s approach was its move beyond a narrow focus on rough sleeping. Burnham should make sure this pledge sits within a broader prevention strategy - not simply drive more spending on poor-value temporary accommodation to meet the target
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Cassia Rowland @cassiarowland.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The day’s first casualty: James Timpson resigns as prisons minister. This is a big surprise! Timpson had a long history as a prisons reformer before entering government and seen as one of Starmer’s more innovative & exciting appointments. He’s also delivered a big change programme in gov. So: why?
bbc.co.uk
Prisons minister Lord Timpson quits government
The businessman said it was an "honour" to serve in the post, but the BBC understands he feels he has achieved all he can in the role.
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Ben Paxton @drbenpaxton.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
If Burnham wants to do welfare reform, then No.10 must help navigate the big trade-offs (not just leave this to HMT/DWP). Putting senior people in No.10 who understand just how difficult that is should help (Cooke was a DWP adviser with Purnell 2008-09, then DWP SpAd in 2024 before moving to No.10)
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
I look forward to listening!
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
A really excellent piece of work on some of the major challenges around SEND reform.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Give it a read! And a huge thank you to everyone who shared their time, experience and insights for this report. It reflects the contributions of many people using, working in and supporting the SEND system.
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Joining up SEND | Institute for Government
How to begin fixing SEND by making the system more joined-up.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
The report sets out: - A range of funding options to break down siloes between services - An alternative model for commissioning health support for SEND if it is not a DHSC priority - How to set up a cross-government working group on SEND (and a lot more)
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
These are not problems local services can solve alone. We give a detailed and practical set of recommendations for how central government can join up SEND. These draw on 50+ expert interviews, a roundtable, case studies from services across England, and extensive research on public service reform.
A list of recommendations from the IfG paper. It starts with setting clear objectives that bind services together, and ensuring the resources exist to deliver them. It then goes onto co-ordinating reform across Whitehall, being realistic about what the health system can deliver, and funding services in ways that reward collaboration rather than ‘cost-shunting’. And finally, it involves standardising processes where there is little benefit in asking every area to design its own.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
There are warning signs that govt's SEND reforms may repeat these mistakes: - SEND teams being badly hit by NHS job cuts despite their role in reform - Local areas committing to reforms amid uncertainty about future council and NHS structures - Departments pursuing *separate* coordination efforts
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Past efforts to join up SEND failed because govt set legal, operational and accountability frameworks pulling services apart. As one interviewee put it: “The system is set up in such a way that if everyone behaves rationally, from their own point of view, it puts them in conflict with each other”.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
We heard about: - Schools being trained to resist council requests - A child who could not attend school while services argued over who should fund their specialist seating - Staff receiving death threats from frustrated parents
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
The government knows this - so what's the problem? Well... so did the governments before it. Joining up the system has been an ambition for years - yet the system has become increasingly fractious.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
"The government's reforms live and die by its ability to galvanise people to work together in partnership", as one senior civil servant told us. When schools, GPs and councils don’t work well together, children, families and staff suffer, and costs become harder to manage.
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Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
NEW REPORT: how to make a success of SEND reform Government needs to get off the sidelines and build a SEND system that makes it easier for schools, councils and health services to work together. Our new report sets out how 🧵
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Joining up SEND | Institute for Government
How to begin fixing SEND by making the system more joined-up.
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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
New comment: Starmer can credibly say he steadied the ship on public services But his govt launched a haphazard set of reforms and performance has not improved radically What choices does Burnham face? What can he do in the next ~3 years? 🧵👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham should learn from Starmer’s successes and failures on public services | Institute for Government
Keir Starmer squandered the opportunity to reform public services.
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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
What would a Burnham govt mean for public services? How can he bring a more coherent approach to reform? No better way to answer those Qs than with a guest blog from Thomas Johnson who works on reform strategy in GMCA, Burnham's old patch Short 🧵👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
The radical rewiring of the state: what devolution must deliver | Institute for Government
Devolution is a means of building a more capable state: one that can connect prevention, productivity, growth and fiscal sustainability.
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Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Disadvantaged primary schools have seen pupil numbers fall at more than twice the rate of schools with the least pupil deprivation, new analysis shows schoolsweek.co.uk/nfer-clear-link-b…
schoolsweek.co.uk
'Clear link' between disadvantage and falling school rolls
Most disadvantaged schools see largest fall in pupil numbers, NFER finds
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FFT Education Datalab @fftedudatalab.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
NEW: Halving the disadvantage gap Quantifying the level of challenge in the Government's twin ambitions of raising Key Stage 4 attainment overall and halving the disadvantage gap. vist.ly/58uug
ffteducationdatalab.org.uk
Halving the disadvantage gap - FFT Education Datalab
Quantifying the level of challenge in the Government's twin ambitions of raising Key Stage 4 attainment overall and halving the disadvantage gap
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