iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

don't you just love a good puzzle? this new draft incorporates some great new potential explanations we heard from smart colleagues while presenting the paper in seminars and conferences. yet the puzzle still stands ...

The Value of Information: A Puzzle
Ohad Kadan, Asaf Manela
We show that under mild assumptions, the total value of information to informed traders in the market can be measured by the covariance between price changes and order flow. This covariance captures noise trader losses, which equal informed trader gains when market making is competitive. We estimate the value of information using high frequency data on US equities at about $3.5 million per year for the average stock. The aggregate value of information is about 0.04% of market cap, which is considerably lower than the 0.67% in fees investors pay each year searching for superior returns (French 2008). We discuss potential resolutions for these puzzling findings.

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

🧩 US investors pay active asset managers about 17 times more in fees than informed traders could possibly earn by forecasting prices.

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

🚨 Call for Papers! 🚨 Submit to the 21st Annual Olin Finance Conference @WashUOlin, Oct 16–17, 2025. Topics: asset pricing, corp finance, behavioral, more. Deadline: July 13 Details: event.olin.wustl.edu/washu-financ... #econsky

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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Updated this chart with the newest Gemini. It shows the rapid progress in AI over less than two years: costs for GPT-4 class models has dropped 99.7% and even the most advanced models (beating PhDs at the GPQA) are still 82% cheaper than GPT-4. Probably not worth betting on this trend ending soon.

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Love what you have done with that graph

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Arpit Gupta @arpitrage.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

📢Call for papers for the NYU Stern Climate Finance Conference! Conference: May 23 NYU Stern Deadline: Feb 28 www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-s...

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Laurens Swinkels @lswinkels.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

The most extensive open access macro database spanning centuries, many items, and many countries. Worth a look if you are into empirical macro/finance: www.globalmacrodata.com #EconSky #FinSky #Data #Macro #Research #OpenAccess NB: Interest rate of Netherlands since 1402 (the year, not Feb '14 😀)

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Toni Whited @toniwhited.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Luke Taylor, Stephen Terry, and I are doing it again. This will be the 5th structural summer school in finance. We do not just teach papers. We teach techniques, and then we have students work on a problem set. Please get your students to apply. rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...

rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu

2025 Summer School on Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Thrilled to announce our new paper, The Natural Language of Finance, forthcoming in Foundations and Trends! We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter

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Daniel Rock @danielrock.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Hi Everyone! We're hosting our Wharton AI and the Future of Work Conference on 5/21-22. Last year was a great event with some of the top papers on AI and work. Paper submission deadline is 3/3. Come join us! Submit papers here: forms.gle/ozJ5xEaktXDE...

forms.gle

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 26/01/2025

Been using @zotero.org for bib management for many years, but what is most remarkable about this project is how it keeps improving. Its pdf reader now beats anything else I've used, and v7 added the Smart Reference Popup that allow me to peak at a figure/table/reference without leaving the text.

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

Ever wonder why in finance we refer to market-wide risk as "systematic" instead of "systemic"? Purely from the standpoint of dictionary definitions, “systemic” (affecting an entire system) might appear more intuitive for market-wide risk than “systematic” (done according to a system or plan).

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Bo Becker @bobecker.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Why do large Swedish companies file for Chapter 11 in the US? And what does it tell us about reform opportunities in EU insolvency law? (Hint: ch 11 is better; reforms should continue). I discuss the Northvolt filing here: www.hhs.se/sv/houseoffi...

hhs.se

Navigating Corporate Insolvency: Lessons from Northvolt's Bankruptcy

Northvolt, the ambitious Swedish battery producer, recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas, highlighting significant challenges for Europe's corporate insolvency systems. Swedish House of Fi...

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Nandini Gupta @nandinigupta.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Good idea. Using sentiment analysis @israelsen.bsky.social, eitan goldman and I found that the same corporate financial news is covered differently in the NYT vs WSJ based on corporations’ politics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

Political polarization in financial news

Comparing coverage of the same corporate financial news by the conservative Wall Street Journal and the liberal New York Times, we find strong evidenc…

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

1/ Does finance benefit society? 📈📉 In a forthcoming Review of Financial Studies paper, @mjha91.bsky.social , Hongyi Liu, and yours truly tackle this question by leveraging large language models to measure sentiments in books spanning centuries and continents. 🧵

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

How much time passes between when you get the announcement that a new version of Julia is released until you juliaup update? (ICYMI v11.2 is out today)

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Guillaume Dalle @gdalle.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Pluto is an absolute masterpiece of scientific and educational software. It's like Jupyter notebooks without "rerun all". In fact, it's so good someone wrote a song about it!!! youtu.be/SyloWC8gheM?...

youtu.be

We don't talk about Pluto

YouTube video by PianoHamster

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Laurens Swinkels @lswinkels.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Survey forecasts are not that useful for investing: "How accurate are survey forecasts on the market?" by @jiaenli.bsky.social and coauthors. Link to updated working paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

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Julie Zhiyu Fu @zhiyufu.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

First skeet for the first paper as an AP! In *Anatomy of Treasury Market*, we study the drivers of U.S. Treasury yields over the past two decades using a flexible asset demand & supply system (with two amazing coauthors @haonanzhou.bsky.social and @manavchaudhary.bsky.social). Some highlights:

fuzhiyu.me

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John Barrios @barriosecon.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

New paper alert! 📢 WFH reshapes the tradeoff between job flexibility and entrepreneurship: fewer startups, esp. women-led. ⚖️ Flexibility at work is now a tradeoff for autonomy. Explore the findings: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... @yalesom.bsky.social #econ #newbusiness #wfh

papers.ssrn.com

Hustling From Home? Work From Home Flexibility and Entrepreneurial Entry

We investigate the influence of the growing trend of work-from-home (WFH) on new business formation, with a particular focus on the period surrounding the COVID

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Matt Levine's account sure looks like a bot is just advertising his (highly recommended) newsletter with a generated title. Except the "spent" typo through me off. Is it really you @matt-levine.bsky.social ? Will you pass a turing test?

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Is Mark Cuban the billionaire with his thumb on the scale on this platform or is it just my feed?

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

my office/outlook mail server doesn't seem to work this morning, so sorry if you sent me an email, but not sorry I'm having a productive morning

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Does anyone know a source for recent data on average GPA by University? #EconSky Best I could find is gradeinflation.com whose data ends in 2016.

gradeinflation.com

National Trends in Grade Inflation, American Colleges and Universities

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

🚀 Excited to introduce Jiaen Li, a standout PhD student on the job market this year! Jiaen's work is at the intersection of finance, machine learning, and ideology, and she’s asking a big question about how ideology shape markets. #EconSky #FinSky #EconJMP

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

I didn't know this market existed, but I guess it makes sense given the stakes involved

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 24/10/2023

Just published: We've used speech data to uncover trends in partisanship at the SEC and Federal Reserve. Interesting find: Partisanship at the SEC peaked in the last decade, evident in language and voting behavior. Dive into the nuances with our paper! academic.oup.com/rfs/article/...

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 22/10/2023

"We will not allow Hamas to hide behind Palestinian civilians while it murders our civilians. We will never target civilians, as they are not our enemy, but if civilians in Gaza are killed while being used as human shields, Hamas will have murdered them as well." www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

economist.com

Naftali Bennett argues that Israel’s future depends on striking fear into its enemies’ hearts

Regional foes must be confronted in new ways, says Israel’s former prime minister

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 02/10/2023

Important work. This floored me: "In the United States, 5 percent of all children spend some time in foster care and 37 percent are involved in a maltreatment investigation by a child protective services agency by age 18."

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 30/09/2023

Back to the Missouri Botanical Gardens today and this glossy invasive species has spread like wild 🔥

Glass flowers intertwined with natural ones

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2023

What is the most interesting question in your subfield that PhD candidates could consider pursuing? I’ll start:

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 28/09/2023

Are there ads on bsky? If not, who is going to pay for this party? 📉📈

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 22/09/2023

So when we will be able to estimate twitter following - bsky following ≈ bots?

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 22/09/2023

I am very fortunate to be working with smart and motivated coauthors. Like a great multiplier on my learning.

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⑆Luke Stein⑈ @lukestein.com · 21/09/2023

Call for papers for what might be the best finance conference out there (opinion only of course and disclosure: program committee member) Consistently fantastic papers, discussants, and fun www.uky.edu/financeconfe...

uky.edu

Overview | University of Kentucky Finance Conference

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Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 20/09/2023

I am really excited to help announce a new book. It is a textbook in Ukrainian on writing math in English. A big effort by an amazing team that hopefully will be useful to students interested in math and science. Please signal-boost! mathematicalenglishUA.org

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 20/09/2023

Did you know that the word "school" comes from the Greek word "scholē", which means "leisure"? Ancient Greeks believed that leisure was essential for learning, and schools were places where people could pursue their intellectual and cultural interests.

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Asaf Manela @amanela.bsky.social · 20/09/2023

Speaking into the void: is there anybody out here ?

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