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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Back in Barcelona after a few intense weeks on the road presenting new research - ECPR in Krakow, @tact-forsed.bsky.social’s project meeting in Dundee and #EPOP2026 in Liverpool to round it up. Met new people, saw friends, got great feedback and drank perhaps too much coffee (both good and bad)

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Grateful for the opportunity to present joint work with @galais.bsky.social & @mguinjoan.bsky.social today at the @tact-forsed.bsky.social conference in @charlesuni.cuni.cz - Almost as important, it is my first time in Prague 🫶

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

I really enjoyed reading this article, now available in @bjpols.bsky.social: In recent years in Spain, when the Left governs, voters seem to undergo an ideological realignment and become more right-wing in their policy preferences. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

Personal news! 📣 I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe. Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Note: While NCReport has its own house effects and there are differences in sampling and non-sampling procedures between the two houses, in an upcoming paper @klaramueller.bsky.social and I show that CIS' deviation from all the other national polls is both weighty and consistent. E.g., see below 🙃

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇 Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

Just discovered that ChatGPT writes as I did during my masters (maybe even early PhD): trying to use grandiloquent words to compensate for a lack of depth in my writing(s)

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

(3) Certainly not to the surprise of those familiar Spanish politics, we find that since 2018 CIS systematically errs in *just* one direction: favouring government parties and allies PS: This plot is merely to pique your interest (the cool ones to be revealed during the presentation! 🙃)

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

(3) Crucially, beyond Simple Absolute Error estimation, we provide estimates that take into account Party-Specific Margin of Error", which are not frequently used (wrong!) in the literature. This allows us then to obtain very nuanced results through another novel lens: Excess Error (!)

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

(2) The second is joint work with @prossertj.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social Much research has investigated whether voter motivations are self-interested or sympathetic to certain groups. But few studies have addressed self-interest and sociotropy and social policy motivations. We do!

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

(1) We find that these calls led to a remarkable reduction (!) in vote intention uncertainty across cases (2025 German Federal Election and 2024 UK General Election), though we observe *important* singularities in each context. Come see the presentation to find them out 🙃 #EPSA2025

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

(1) The first one is joint work with @klaramueller.bsky.social. In it, we examine how snap election *calls* affect vote intention uncertainty, estimated through “Don’t Know” responses in large public opinion surveys.

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Unfortunately, I won't be able to participate in #EPSA2025 😔 - But as I'm coauthor of 3 pieces that will be presented, I feel compelled to share the details in case you're interested in any! - A thread follows 🧵 @epsanet.bsky.social PS: Sadly, 2 of the presentations clash in date and time

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 23/09/2024

Last week, I successfully defended my doctoral thesis at UC3M, and am thrilled to announce that I'm [finally] a doctor (!) cum laude🎓🥳 - Immense thanks to my three examiners (@mcuanti.bsky.social, Homero Gil de Zúñiga & Alberto Ardèvol-Abreu) for their insightful feedback and engaging discussion!

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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 14/08/2024

Popping in only to say that #ecprgc24 is my final conference as a PhD candidate, and I’m absolutely enjoying it @ecpr.bsky.social - Grateful for the opportunity to present my research here!

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