iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

when I didnt study for the test but the smartest kid in class is sitting next to me

alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

We really need more independent and high quality polling of this race, and some of ASR's polls have been internals. But at some point, you have to wonder why even 60 days before the election, Peltola is keeping a +1-3 margin over Sullivan. We'll see what happens as GOP ads settle with voters.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

"guys how bad can ballot exhaustion REALLY be, surely alaskans just need a few cycles to get it down to less than 10% right?" here's how every statewide and legislative rcv allocation went in 2024. pay attention to the yellow:

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Besides Eric Hafner (rando guy in prison in NY), all of the competing Dems have dropped from AK-AL. Midterms have a lot more high propensity voters, so it'll be easier to spread awareness about Hafner and get his vote share down. Plus, there's now an (L) spoiler.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

While we wait on 20-30k ballots, I want to give some local perspective to the Alaska's legislative races. We have multipartisan majorities in both chambers and have a real shot at expanding them. As a lifelong Alaskan, I'd like to introduce you to the places behind the races🧵

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Unfortunate but the RCV portion of this poll is just not even worth your consideration. Alaska is an open primary top-4 RCV general system. Instead of asking an RCV q for the top 4 polled by ASR, he polls *6*. Because so many are R’s, this poll systematically favors D’s.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Of the 6 uncontested #akleg races this year, only 2 are from swing districts. One of them is State Senator Bill Wielechowski (D) of East Anchorage, from a Harris +5/Peltola +14 district. Why not contest it? Wielechowski is one of the top overperformers in the Legislature.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

forgot that bluesky exists for a second oops

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

Proud of the staff at The Homer News and the Peninsula Clarion who are resigning. Unfortunately, thanks to Sarah's cancel culture crusade, Alaska is losing four fantastic local journalists. Vance NEEDS to be held accountable for her overreach of power.

adn.com

Several staff at 2 Alaska newspapers resign over handling of article by parent company Carpenter Media

Two reporters and two editors from the Peninsula Clarion and Homer News cited actions by their parent company in altering an article after pushback by a state lawmaker in their resignations.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

Dunleavy Republicans wrote an amendment expanding corporal punishment in Alaska's schools. Here's MAGA Rep. Jamie Allard's surprisingly great speech against it. "I was a child of the 70's. They whipped us. If I saw one of those teachers, I might run them over with a bus!"

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

I could write a book about how white people are addicted to tokenizing conservative indigenous voices to entrench anti-indigenous sentiments. these are the (mostly white) Alaskans who refuse to say Utqiaġvik instead of Barrow and who look down on Native communities struggling with abuse/poverty.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

Fun fact: Alaska Republicans have not controlled all 3 branches in the state since *2014*. This year is also the first time since we were a blue state that R’s are out of power in BOTH branches. (this map by @statisticurban.bsky.social shows control of state gov after November)

Map by @statisticurban showing control of state government. Purple = split control, blue/red = Dem/GOP trifecta, and yellow states have Dem governors but a GOP supermajority in the legislature.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Rep. Sarah Vance won re-election with the lowest margin of victory in her career. Independent Brent Johnson was one of few Dem-backed candidates to outrun both Harris AND Peltola. My hometown of Homer went hard for Brent, but low Dem turnout sunk his chances.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

you know we’ve lost Myrna’s when all the straight people are singing along to every song 😅

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

This is missing a lot of data since I’m constantly streaming music on YouTube, but this is definitely a fair representation of my year in music lmao

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Despite a small red wave, D’s *net* 1 seat in the House. 5 more seats and we would have had a majority — which makes Peltola’s loss all the more painful.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

i think what's so daunting to liberals about trump's comeback is that the shift was so widespread. brain breaking margins for R's in cities D's normally dominate in. the actual *margin* trump will win by is very, very small. it's just that his coalition was so *efficient*

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Of Alaska's 40 House Districts, the top 10 shifts to the left from 2012-2024 are ALL in Anchorage — every single one being from the suburbs. Jamie Allard (HD23), the most extreme MAGA R in the Legislature, sits in a Romney +37➡️Trump +19 seat. Peltola came within 10 points of winning it.

A map of the shift in presidential margins between the 2012 and 2024 elections in Alaska. For instance, Romney won Anchorage’s HD23 by 37 points in 2012. Trump won the same HD by 18 points in 2024. That’s a shift towards Democrats of nearly 19% - the second highest shift in the State of Alaska.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

i don't really think people realize what a 25% tariff means. like if you think inflation was high from 2021-2023?? hahaha. silly and tiny compared to what's about to happen.

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Reposted by alaskanrobby

Sun Tzu's Art of Vore @rhena.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

i want chappell roan to sing hot to go with the muppets and i want her to be miss piggy's first lesbian kiss. i will execute one hostage every hour until these demands are met

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

To my knowledge, the Alaska State House is the *only* state legislative chamber to flip from 🔴➡️🔵 This is bc @TheAlaskaDems just flipped 3 House seats. A Dem-led multi-partisan coalition now controls BOTH the House and Senate. Not enough people are talking about this!!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Great write up on how Ballot Measure 2's vote correlated pretty strongly with Native-majority precincts — home to some of the highest rates of Independent registration in the state. When we say "Alaska is so independent", we mostly mean rural and non-white voters.

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Reposted by alaskanrobby

Sofia Stuart-Rasi @sofiastuartrasi.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

unalaska only has one health center that provides urgent and emergency care. but now, they can't afford to keep providing that kind of service anymore. the island is a fishing hub and home to 4,000 residents, so it's not a lack of patients ... it's a reimbursement issue. my latest:

kucb.org

$20M expansion aims to address Unalaska’s emergency care funding challenges

Unalaska's community health center is preparing to start construction on an expansion that could help secure emergency care funding.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Huge fan of musicals and especially Wicked, but I didn’t totally know what to expect from Cynthia and Ariana. It was… actually a blast. Their strange chemistry in interviews definitely translated on screen.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

sometimes I forget dan sullivan exists and he’s literally my senator

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Cliff Groh will lose by 0.62% in a district that voted for Trump by 16% this year. He was the strongest downballot Dem in the state and lost because of high JBER turnout. In 2026, JBER wont turn out much since it’s a midterm. Hope Nelson enjoys being a 1-term backbencher again.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

BREAKING: Ballot Measure 2, a Republican-led effort to repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska, is now FAILING by 192 votes.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Not terribly surprising, but the 1st choice votes of conservative-leaning presidential candidates were most supportive of the RCV repeal in Alaska. 76%of 1st choice Trump votes voted Yes on the Repeal. In comparison, just 12-13% of Harris/Stein/West voters voted Yes. Data: @cinyc9 from Twitter

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Wow. The No on 2 just passed its benchmarks in the latest ballot drop. These batch of ballots are non-Juneau Southeast, the Southern Kenai, and the Bush — mostly areas where No on 2 was already winning: Harris +1 Peltola +13 Keep RCV +13 Yes now leads by just 900 votes. No is now favored to win.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

According to the division, they will count less than half of the outstanding ballots tonight. I typically defend the division, but this pace is indefensible. Competing with California for who counts ballots slower is not the vibe.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

There's roughly 30,000 votes left to count in Alaska. The effort to repeal RCV is up just 2,400 votes. Here's a map of the outstanding absentee/early votes. Nearly 70% of the remaining vote is from Anchorage, Southeast, the Bush, and Kodiak — all places the No side is leading.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

I used to be skeptical of the whole "Jill Stein and the Greens are grifters who don't care about power" argument. Then we passed open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska. And Greens didn't field a single. fucking. candidate. Not one candidate. Not even for Congress.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Hi folks, I'm gonna give this thing a shot for real this time. However, I am VERY worried about ceding the arena to white supremacist fascists and retreating to even *smaller* echo chambers in a time like this. So I'll still be on Twitter, but I have FOMO over Alaska BlueSky!!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 15/11/2023

Dahltstrom will run as the "moderate" option, but remember that she got her start in politics by primarying then-State Rep Lisa Murkowski from the right. She'll probably do better than Begich, but with two R's in the race there's no chance.

2002 margin of victory map for the Republican primary in House District 18. Lisa Murkowski fought off a challenge to her right from now-Lt Gov Nancy Dahlstrom. Murkowski was challenged by her party over backlash for her support for fiscal reforms like an income tax. Dahlstrom came within 57 votes of Murkowski.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 08/09/2023

Like other states with decent trends for Democrats, Alaska has a turnout problem in its downtown cores. Nowhere is that truer than Fairbanks. The city is 34% of the North Star Borough's voting age population, but because of bad turnout it cast just 25% of the total votes in 2020.

Fairbanks North Star Borough - Turnout Differential table by census-designated place (CDP)

eg. the City of Fairbanks makes up 34% of the voting age population (18 and up), and casts on average roughly 25% of the vote — leading to a turnout differential of -8.6%.

Most other CDP’s have better turnout and cast votes proportionate to their share of the borough.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/08/2023

heard this place is for nerds so here’s a chart

Total margins of victory in Alaska’s presidential races statewide and in the Bush from 2000-2020. While Alaska has been steadily trending left, the bush has shifted right three cycles in a row. The Bush also swung right between the 2014-2020 Senate race for Sullivan’s seat, and the 2018-2022 Governor’s races for Dunleavy’s seat.

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