iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

when I didnt study for the test but the smartest kid in class is sitting next to me

alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

It's also not a candidate, or a partys, or any stakeholders job to prioritize testing out the spirit of RCV. Lots of folks voted for RCV without actually understanding how it works. That includes me. It's time we adapt and strategize.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

What's important is that we understand the advantages/disadvantages. "I wanted to see RCV in action" is not a compelling argument when the alternative is putting us in a very, very, very good spot to win the governorship. 2D vs 2R put us at a much more neutral spot, or as I'd argue, a disadvantage.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

"RCV matters" is not an unpopular take. This data is to push back against the perception that it's mechanisms don't have consequences. RCV does in fact split the vote, and the resistance to the consolidation of candidates is going to lose us some races if we don't do some education about it.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

That is a shame since I was just a six is literally the only competitive race on the Peninsula. KBBI usually has something late but I wanted to ask in case it was being folded into KDLL’s. Thank you for your work Jake!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

People really, really want to believe that there's some smoky backroom where the chair of the party breaks your legs if you don't do something. It's easier to imagine that than accept the fact that candidates have agency and make strategic decisions, which is what happened here.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

So you're telling me, on record, that ASR has never conducted an internal this cycle?

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

We really need more independent and high quality polling of this race, and some of ASR's polls have been internals. But at some point, you have to wonder why even 60 days before the election, Peltola is keeping a +1-3 margin over Sullivan. We'll see what happens as GOP ads settle with voters.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

If you ranked the candidate that got eliminated, AND you ranked the candidate the next last-place candidate, you wouldn't appear as an exhausted vote because your Hafner vote actually transferred. Exhausted = your ballot ended with the candidate that got eliminated.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

This is where the votes of eliminated candidates got distributed.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

"guys how bad can ballot exhaustion REALLY be, surely alaskans just need a few cycles to get it down to less than 10% right?" here's how every statewide and legislative rcv allocation went in 2024. pay attention to the yellow:

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I'd bet my entire savings on the math behind ballot exhaustion. There is a reason Republicans consolidated in 2024 -- they know why they lost that race. They just couldn't get out of their own way this year. Look at these exhaustion rates. Even in competitive races with options!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Contrary to popular belief, ranked choice voting does not prevent a spoiler effect. Roughly 20% of voters this cycle will not rank their ballots, something that active campaigning and spending on voter awareness does not solve. This lost R's the congressional race in 2022. Important we understand it

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

That said, this election has revealed just how important it is that Democrats are on the ballot. There is a non-insignificant number of folks who will vote D on the ballot over an established, even Dem-backed Indie. Under this system, any D can run and rack up 3-5% and spoil.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

This race is the least likely to flip, but I'm also a tiny bit more bullish than others. Not a single statewide Republican, even Nick, could crack 45% in a primary where R's show up big in midterms. Bill Hill will only increase name rec, and now a close to even spoiler effect.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Besides Eric Hafner (rando guy in prison in NY), all of the competing Dems have dropped from AK-AL. Midterms have a lot more high propensity voters, so it'll be easier to spread awareness about Hafner and get his vote share down. Plus, there's now an (L) spoiler.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

South Anchorage Assemblyman Zac Johnson. His pick helped him win the entire Southside of Anchorage, which clearly had a huge impact on his margin — Anchorage was otherwise Begichtown. It may have won him the primary.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Cut it any way you want. We cannot have multiple Ds running and splitting the vote.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

100 years of RCV in Australia has not solved ballot exhaustion. Co-campaigning like Mamdani and Ladner didn't do it, even with 90% Dems voting. All of the above minus Denny is wishcasting and theorizing. Not only is the data against you, but so are the empirics.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Put it this way: In 2022, I ran Cliff Groh's race for HD18. A second Dem was in the race. We ran mailers, lit dropped, paid comms, texts, calls, door knocked with dual literature. We did everything to let folks know to rank each other. 20% exhaustion and we almost lost. You can't break it, folks.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Noooo. Do not assume that at all. On average, 20-40% of voters will skip rankings entirely and just vote first choice. That number is lower in midterms, but even just 15% of 3% of the vote in a 290,000 ballot election is a winner or losers margin in Alaska (1100 votes, and that’s bing conservative).

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

I just don't understand the superiority complex about being on bluesky instead of twitter. Most smart people are on both. I'm just stating my experience with this app, and the folks who left Twitter for here seem quite defensive about that. You are kind of making all my points for me (in good faith)

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

I do not see "Nazi" content on Twitter, ever. That's because I don't engage with, follow, converse, or leave impressions on the content of white supremacists. THAT is a skill issue lmao First 4 months of Elon takeover though? Fucking rancid. It's why I originally got on here.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Easy: I can curate around Twitter's algorithm pretty easily. If I started a brand new Twitter right now, I wouldn't make it a week. But I've spent enough time on the platform that I encounter a lot better content than I do on bluesky.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

after theyre through brand new day I need collective rankings — this is v important

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

also you can throw sideways shade and make petty subtweets but you’re only making my point. theres no need to be so defensive friend

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Fairbanks Rs are genuinely dogshit, but they don’t think they have a recruitment problem. They think it’s the voters’ fault. They’ll tell you the only thing changing is the state. They have their together more in Anchorage than a Trump +16 borough!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

if I started a Twitter right now, day 1 feed, I would probably blow my brains out. but a lot of the best analysis ive seen and the data skills ive acquired have been from folks who do not share my motives and biases. it’s made me better at my job and knowing my weaknesses. simple as that

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

is this a subtweet? if so very twitter coded of you 😄

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

When someone beats Bart LeBon by 10 points on the first round of votes for their re-election, after beating them in a red leaning midterm, it scares competition away. They're too busy fighting each other. People underestimate the impact a fractured party has on their success!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Less toxic at the expense of less interesting, intellectually stimulating, and gives a different kind of distorted view of reality. If I wanted that vibe I'd be on Facebook more lol. Also, I've spent years curating a data-centric following on Twitter. Will just take time here.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

i don't like being in a bubble here -- it dulls my analytical skills. bluesky just fails to curate an informational feed like election twitter. im trying tho!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Lastly, in anticipation of the "primary has nada to do with the general", I mainly post about AK politics on Twitter. I've discussed in depth the relationship between alaska's primary-to-general shift. TL;DR: blue shifts from pri-gen in midterm years, opposite in pres years. x.com/alaskanrobby...

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

If you'd like a closer look at the districts mentioned, check out my interactive historical leg map. I update this every filing period and post-certification with results. It includes some demographic info and election results going back so 2018! tinyurl.com/akelectmaps

tinyurl.com

Alaska Legislative Interactive Map - Google My Maps

**Share this map with others at tinyurl.com/akelectmaps!** Find your representative, see past election results, and view population and demographic info by Voting Age Population! - The shades of blu...

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Thank you for reading this far. I love Alaska with my whole heart and put a lot of time into this thread. There's truly too much to say. Those with hopeful eyes on our state: I hope this gives you some insight on the two degrees of separation that defines our politics.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

This district has many stories to tell. From the Filipino and Latinos that immigrated to work on crab boats and canneries, to the largest salmon run in the world in Bristol Bay, to the islands in the Aleutians that were once invaded by the Japanese in World War 2, and many more.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

This time, it's the Southwestern districts with the interesting contests. HD37's Bryce Edgmon, 1st AK Native House Speaker, who first won his race by COIN FLIP, is finally retiring after 20 yrs. A massive power broker. 6 candidates ran in the open primary for this seat. Very likely coalition hold.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Lastly, I want to talk about the Bush. That's Alaska Native-majority rural Alaska, a massive area that stretches from the Aleutian Islands through the Yukon Kuskokwim river all the way to the oil-rich North Slope. I've written about some of the issues that drive politics here:

https://thealaskacurrent.com/2023/08/02/on-the-arctic-slope-resource-politics-trumps-party-affiliation/

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I think this was a big miscalculation. Voters do not like this kind of stuff when they find out. It's also a blue wave year. We have won in seats more conservative than this in environments that will look similar to Nov. Plus, the Indie candidate is stellar and is working hard

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

R's tried pulling a fast one in this open seat. Rep. Frank Tomaszewski dropped in the final hour of the deadline to run for Senate, while his *wife* stepped in and filed for his old seat. They thought if the former incumbent couldn't keep this gerrymandered seat, nobody could.

https://www.dermotcole.com/reportingfromalaska/2026/6/1/robb-meyers-keeps-retirement-secret-in-plot-to-put-tomaszewski-in-state-senate

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

There's some potential wildcard races up north. One of them is located mostly in Fairbanks exurbs, which the R-leaning redistricting board drew to take out now-borough Mayor Hopkins (D) in 2022. Labor-backed JB Cottle is running for the open seat. Why close? This was Trump +21!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

HD18 is the story of differential turnout. The reason this district is so swingy is not just cuz of the working class, low college ed communities in the district -- those areas love Cliff and vote for him by high margins. It's the military base only turning up in presidentials.

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

There are a few races that are pretty much said and done. Cliff Groh (D) flipped HD18 by 78 votes in 2022, then lost it by 24 votes in 2024, and is now running for the now-open seat. This seat stretches Downtown Anchorage, the JBER military base, and North Muldoon. Huge!

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Can Brent Johnson (I), her 2024 challenger, pull it off now? In November, more Russian Old Believers exurban towns will turn out. The big question is whether Homer can turn out enough to offset them.

https://www.kdll.org/local-news/2024-05-08/the-most-unique-district-in-america-part-iii-russian-old-believer-schools

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Vance got into office by taking out a former Republican coalition member in 2018, back when the Permanent Fund Dividend was #1 issue in the state. She's a Christian nationalist, frequently flies in Lower 48 culture legislation, and is extremely divisive -- even among Republicans

https://alaskapublic.org/news/2024-02-14/alaska-rep-sarah-vance-apologizes-for-comments-about-victims-of-sexual-violence

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Incumbent Sarah Vance (R) is the biggest underperformer in the GOP House minority. She legislates like she's from the Valley instead of the South Kenai. Brent Johnson, a commercial fisherman and former Borough Assembly President, has a strong chance of flipping this seat. 2026:

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alaskanrobby @alaskanrobby.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Speaking of the gulf coast: my hometown of Homer, the halibut capital of the world! HD6 spans the South Peninsula, including fishing towns across the bay, artsy fishing town of Homer, a few Russian Villages, and blood red retiree and fishing communities. Here's 2024's race here:

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