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Jacob Feuerstein

@agnes1972.bsky.social
464 followers 629 following 120 posts

Private sector meteorologist. Flooding/weather history enthusiast. From the Northeast, currently living in the Midwest. Thoughts are mine alone.

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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
An annual tradition: my top ten list of the year's weather events, ranked for a combination of atmospheric exceptionality and human impact. Check it out at my blog! jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/12/29/w...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
Weather of 2025
Every year since 2017, I’ve taken time in late December to curate a top ten list of the year’s significant US weather events, with “significance” loosely defined as a combination of met…
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
I have finally put together my thoughts on the enormity of Friday morning's Texas flood. Mostly it is a meditation on the historical context of such a hyper-local flood killing 104 people, something that really hasn't happened in nearly 50 years. jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/07/07/h...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
Horrific Flood in Texas
In the early morning hours of July 4th, a deluge above the headwaters of the Guadalupe River sent a wave of water crashing downstream. The river’s level rapidly increased by about 100x, overw…
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Comparing WPC's seven-day rain forecast to some significant regional flood events of the last thirty years. A major flood outbreak seems likely by mid-weekend from ArkLaTex to the OH Valley.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
A new blog on what yesterday's tornado outbreak means in the broader context of high risk verification. jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
The High Risk’s Identity Crisis
On Friday and Saturday, a remarkable multi-day tornado event swept the central US. The Storm Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service tasked with forecasting convective weather, is…
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Decreased visibility here in Madison with what I suspect is dust, lofted in west Texas and advected northeast. Very cool. Definitely doesn't have the typical wildfire smoke smell.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
A new blog about 2011's tornado season. I wrote it over the weekend, but I've seen a few people referencing the April 27 super-outbreak recently, so feels an appropriate time to post. jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/11/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
The Year of the Tornado
A brief retrospective on 2011 A few days ago, I saw the following statistic in the Storm Prediction Center’s 2024 year-in-review post. It is, of course, very much true that 2024 was less dead…
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
Top 20 tornado days, post-1950, by breadth of F3 tornado reports. This is defined as the size of a box drawn from the northwest to southeast that encompasses all intense tornadoes. This does not adjust for differences in longitude miles with latitude, sorry. Days with >3 F3 tornado reports included.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
I believe the number of fatalities in Kentucky crossed 20 with yesterday’s reporting from the Governor. This is a large death toll for a flood, probably the largest in winter in many decades.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
Seeing a couple flash flood emergencies already for the corner of WV/VA. Conditions should continue to worsen into the overnight, especially as convection strengthens and moves through hard-hit areas. This is a major ongoing cold-season flood event.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
One of the largest D3 moderate risks I've ever seen now up for this threat. Suspect we could be seeing a high risk in E KY/WV tomorrow, we'll see.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
It's rained up to 6+ inches in KY/WV over the last 14 days. Another 1-3 inches of rain and snow QPF expected over the work week. On Saturday, all of the snow melts, and 5-8+" of rain could fall locally with training storms somewhere in this region. Could be a good setup for substantial flooding.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
I received a NYT alert earlier this afternoon with a push notification about Hurricane Helene and hurricane deaths in general. I thought the analysis was poor enough to warrant a blog with my thoughts. [updated with correct link] jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/08/b...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
Bad Analysis
My rebuttal to a New York Times article The New York Times is one of two papers I personally subscribe to, alongside the WSJ. I think they have unparalleled reporting on politics and world events, …
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Twelve years ago tonight, southern New England's worst snowstorm since 1888. I measured 38" in my backyard in south-central Connecticut. It isn't the whole story, but I blame this storm for really igniting my interest in weather.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
New blog post: a meditation on the most expensive weather events in US history jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/04/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
The Most Expensive Weather Event
A meditation on the meaning behind a common statistic Over the second week of January, a handful of wildfires rapidly burned through urban corridors on the fringes of the Los Angeles metro area. A …
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Given government-wide cuts to funding and staffing, I have contacted my elected federal officials imploring them to protect NOAA and the NWS. I encourage you to do the same, especially if you use weather data, and especially if you work outside of the government.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
A second blog post today, this one more personal than weather jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/w...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
What am I Listening to?
This will be a rare non-weather blog, but sometimes I like to talk about myself. Around the end of 2024, Pitchfork posted a survey for snobbish music fans to list their top albums and songs of the …
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
New blog post: quantifying the flooding of 2024 jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
The Flooding of 2024
Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the New NWPS API I’ve probably created dozens of random data analysis/plotting scripts over the last few years, mostly using pandas and matplotlib …
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Thanks to Helene, September 2024 has become the month with the third most record crests in the national AHPS database.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Map of observed snowfall from the great Gulf Coast snow storm of 1895
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
An annual tradition- my top ten list of the year's weather events, ranked for a combination of atmospheric exceptionality and human impact. Check it out at my blog, which I'm thinking of re-activating: jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2024/12/30/w...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
Weather of 2024
Every year since 2017- when I was a Junior in high school- I’ve created a list of the top ten annual weather events in some form. In high school, I posted to my forecast instagram account. In…
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Reposted by Jacob Feuerstein
Weather History @weatherhistory.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
December 26th, 2004: A magnitude 9.1 earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that caused tremendous devastation throughout the Indian Ocean. The tsunami that followed killed more people than any other tsunami in recorded history, with 227,898 dead. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages...
A village near the coast of Sumatra lays in ruin after the Tsunami that struck South East Asia. Helicopters assigned to Carrier Air Wing Two (CVW-2) and Sailors from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) are conducting humanitarian operations in the wake of the Tsunami that struck South East Asia. The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is currently operating in the Indian Ocean off the waters of Indonesia and Thailand.An aerial view of the village of BanTuan, south of Banda Aceh in Sumatra, Indonesia. The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) Carrier Strike Group is currently operating in the Indian Ocean off the waters of Indonesia and Thailand in support of Operation Unified Assistance.A lone structure stands in a sea of debris on a small land mass totally destroyed by the Dec. 26 tsunami. The 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable) has been providing desperately needed humanitarian aid to cities and villages along more than 150 miles of Sumatra's western coastline.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Woke up to a decent amount of snow in northern Allegheny County, which was a pretty big surprise- apparently, some Erie bands targeted my location with extreme precision
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
Trend in seasonal snow totals (via gridded NOHRSC snow data) over the last 16 years. Sad!
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
Having some fun with NOHRSC gridded data
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
30.78 inches makes Helene one of the most prolific rain events ever recorded from a TC in the interior US. The only other hurricane to drop comparable rain in Appalachia- Camille- killed 150+ in Nelson County, VA. Helene dropped such rain over a considerably larger area.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Three years ago today, a defining and unforgettable weather event.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
A flooding event seems increasingly probable in the interior Northeast on Wednesday as a strong inland cutter drags a strong atmospheric river over a snowpack containing 1-4" of liquid. Stratiform rain and snowmelt followed by a convective line is a classic recipe for a cold season flood.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
The result:
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Roaring winds off Lake Mendota, in Madison, propelling frigid waves that are coating James Madison Park with ice. Midwest cold fronts are next level.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
exceptional amount of fire activity in the southeast amid today's dry, windy, mild conditions
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
the most disappointing thing finally happened to me #WinDohSeat
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
In honor of the last day of 2024's hurricane season, a plot of what's probably the year's most important data: totals and recurrence intervals of rainfall from Helene.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Last day of the 2024 hurricane season. As with all historic events, will take some time to process and accurately shelve. Milton and Helene were two of the most impressive TCs we’ve ever sensed in the Atlantic, for very different reasons.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Wondering why Yankee candle, surely the biggest candle-focused company in the country, only sells candles that smell bad
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Wondering what this band of lake-effect-esque snow near Portage, WI is driven by? Perhaps a power plant/factory, or the Wisconsin River? Interesting either way
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Saratoga, NY solidly overperforming under persistent banding and temps hanging around 32 all morning. Handful of cars off the road on roads largely unsalted and poorly plowed. Also, already seeing some large branches down from the weight of the snow.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Almost forgot- I actually have plotted snow totals from the 1950 blizzard, via SC ACIS data. Really incomprehensible breadth and magnitude of snow with this unusual, intense cyclone
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Today marks 74 years since one of the most interesting and impactful weather events in North American history slammed the Northeast US. Extreme coastal wind and an immense interior blizzard accompanied by frigid temperatures killed nearly 400 people.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Spotted over a creek in Briarcliff Manor, NY!
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Reposted by Jacob Feuerstein
Weather History @weatherhistory.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
November 21-22nd, 1992: The nearly uninterrupted activity saw over 60 tornadoes strike numerous states during day 2 of a massive outbreak. Four of the tornadoes in Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky were rated F4. 12 people were killed, and nearly 300 others were injured.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Looks like some pretty solid topographical enhancement to precipitation west of I87! Good setup with moist flow largely perpendicular to the terrain. Note that some returns here are contaminated by bright banding.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Does anybody actually understand the Storm Par business model in twisters
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Pressure quickly dropping at a bouy offshore Washington as a powerful low deepens rapidly on approach. Dropping at ~3mb/20mins
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
This might be the first ever non tropical D3 high risk ERO?
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
your 20s is all about visualizing historic weather data
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
2025 will be the year of the canned sardine
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Reposted by Jacob Feuerstein
Deelan Jariwala @wxtca.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Some cool imagery of Hurricane Carmen (1974) approaching its first peak in the Gulf of Honduras. The second and third image are from the VHRR instrument aboard some of NOAA’s early polar orbiting satellites — I had no idea this data existed with such high quality!!
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Models honing in on a fascinating evolution for the first real mid-cont cyclone of the cold season; a compact but dramatic digging trough that turns a frontal wave into a <980mb low in less then 24 hours. Severe anomalies advected to the *south* may allow an Appalachian/ern OH valley blizzard.
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Reposted by Jacob Feuerstein
Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Update: La Ceiba, Honduras, now reporting over 34 inches of total rainfall from #Sara. As pointed out by @agnes1972.bsky.social earlier, that matches their rain total from 1998's Hurricane Mitch. With rain rates of 2-3.5 inches an hour, they'll crush their Mitch total.
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Jacob Feuerstein @agnes1972.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Not the sort of city I'd want to be in for feet of rain: the fanning floodplain of a river that drains steep mountains immediately inland. La Ceiba got 34.5" in Mitch.
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