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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

GOP candidates are now calling to end the Iran War. Raises questions: -. If elected, would they join with anti-war Democrats to pass legislation forcing Trump to end the conflict? -. What will their calls to end the conflict with #Iran do to their relationship with groups such as @aipac.org?

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

#Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi proposes deal to reopen #Hormuz in next seven days without spelling out the specifics.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Nearly 20 years ago, Matt Baum (Soft News Goes to War) found that as the public gets more of its news from “soft news,” isolationism increases. Piggybacking on news from @axios.com on how search has collapsed as a driver for traditional media….

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Can Pakistan credibly serve as a security patron of last resort for the Gulf? My new brief for @mecouncil.bsky.social examines how Pakistan’s ties to Iran undermine its credibility, & why it can't stop grey-zone proxy attacks. mecouncil.org/publication/... #MiddleEast #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Iran

mecouncil.org

Pakistan: A Patron of Last Resort for Middle East Security?

Can Pakistan credibly protect Gulf states? This policy brief examines its defense pacts, nuclear ambiguity, military limitations, and ties with Iran.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

What’s likely to occur IF the Netanyahu bloc succeeds in convincing the electoral commission to ban the so-called “Arab parties”?: 1). Arab parties’ supporters vote for second (or third) choices among the center-left opposition; 2). Supporters boycott the election; 3). Violence breaks out.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Unconfirmed reports #Pakistan & #Turkiye have closed their borders w #Iran in response to the #Houthi attacks on #SaudiArabia & seizure of Mocha. Interesting about-face (if true) from the other day when Pakistan said it would not get involved, depicting the Houthi issue as a “preexisting condition.”

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Amb. Jeffrey’s @foreignaffairs.com case for a US-Iran stalemate assumes economic pain forces Tehran to fold. Proponents are fighting the last war, ignoring 3 blind spots: 1/ Khatam al-Anbiya's operational sync 2/ Commitment traps (like 1982) 3/ Reputational resolve. Bad playbook.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Elections are coming up in the #US and #Israel. What is the likelihood #Iran will stage an attack between now & Polling Day? What is the likely effect such an attack will have on Netanyahu’s prospects, or the GOP’s ability to hold Congress? Rally-around-the-leader OR punishment?

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

President Xi is making his first visit to #Egypt in nearly a decade. What measures will he endorse to combat the #Houthis & instability in the Red Sea in order to continue to cultivate a relationship with #Cairo? #China.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

At SCO summit in Bishkek, @pezeshkian.bsky.social reiterated promise to reciprocate US behavior re: commitments. Iranian general staff issued a similar message re: American strikes on ports.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

#Iran’s proposal for a regional non-aggression pact could take advantage of US’s abandonment of bases. Question: how does each side tie its hands? -How does #Iran reconcile the #Mecca Pact w/ a non-aggression arrangement? @almonitor.bsky.social, www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

al-monitor.com

Can Iran turn postwar vulnerability into a regional security pact?

After a war that demonstrated both the reach and the limits of Iran's military deterrence, Iran's leadership is on the quest for security arrangements beyond the battlefield.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

In 2019, Trump pulled US forces out of #Rojava, or Syrian #Kurdistan. Today the US announced it was cutting off military assistance to the Iraqi Peshmerga. The #KRG’s only option is to reach a modus vivendi w Tehran & balance it w/their cooperation w/ #Turkiye. bbc.com/news/article....

bbc.com

US plans to cut off military aid to key Middle East ally, BBC told

Iraqi Kurdistan fears the Trump administration's plan will make the region more vulnerable to further attacks from Iran.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

If Netanyahu loses the election this Fall, it will not solely be a function of mismanagement of national security issues or corruption allegations. It will be due to parties (including brand new ones) within his bloc cannibilizing the right-wing vote. @almonitor.bsky.social, @timesofisrael.com.

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Reposted by Dr. Albert B. Wolf

Al-MONITOR @almonitor.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Qatar's prime minister will visit Tehran on Thursday in an effort to relaunch diplomacy after the U.S. and Iran traded recriminations over Washington's promise to increase economic pressure on Tehran by targeting its trade partners for sanctions. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

al-monitor.com

Qatar PM to visit Tehran to pursue mediation efforts

By Yomna Ehab and Parisa HafeziCAIRO/DUBAI, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Qatar's prime minister will visit Tehran on Thursday in an effort to relaunch diplomacy after the U.S. and Iran traded recriminations…

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

The SDF’s dissolution shows the political fortunes of the #Kurds have shifted throughout the region since the #IranWar,@amberinzaman.bsky.social Colleagues & I predicted this in @warontherocks.bsky.social, where we’ve seen consolidations to the Kurds’ detriment: warontherocks.com/the-shifting....

warontherocks.com

The Shifting Fortunes of the Kurds

The Kurds’ fortunes have ebbed and flowed in recent years, but the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, the 2025 decision by the Kurdistan

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

You don’t often see Maslow’s Hammer presented in print. However, here it is by Ludovic Hood of the Hudson Institute. Maximum Pressure failed for all of the reasons scholars of coercive diplomacy suggest compellence fails ( @washingtonpost.com)… www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

washingtonpost.com

Opinion | I was a U.S. diplomat for 20 years. Now I see how the Iran war could be won.

The best outcome for core U.S. interests is the collapse of the regime.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Experts and pundits talked about a potential Pasdaran Coup. Instead, the #IranWar facilitated a Pasdaran Succession. Agitprop is showing a military leadership running #Iran without any sign of Mojtaba Khamenei. @economist.com - www.economist.com/middle-east-...

economist.com

A military junta is consolidating power in Iran

That is bad news for Iranians and a possible peace deal with America

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Ghalibaf was in Baghdad to discuss ways to help Iraq export oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Clear sign Gulf states are accepting the changes in the regional order brought by the #IranWar. See reporting by @adamlucente.bsky.social in @almonitor.bsky.social: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

al-monitor.com

Iran’s Ghalibaf makes high-level visit to Iraq ahead of disarmament deadline

The Iraqi parliament speaker is calling on his Iranian counterpart to help Iraq export oil through Hormuz amid the regional conflict.

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Reposted by Dr. Albert B. Wolf

Al-MONITOR @almonitor.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

EXCLUSIVE: Saudi Arabia wants Iran-backed militia 'heads to roll' in Iraq amid talks with Tehran Riyadh is pressing Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi to act against the groups behind attacks on the kingdom as Baghdad struggles to balance ties with Tehran and Washington. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

al-monitor.com

Saudi Arabia wants Iran-backed militia 'heads to roll' in Iraq amid talks with Tehran

Riyadh is pressing Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to act against the groups behind attacks on the kingdom as Baghdad struggles to balance ties with Tehran and Washington.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

UAE just issued missile alert to residents.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Despite having attempted to distance Iraqi #Kurdistan from the #IranWar (& Pres. Nechirvan Barzani’s role as a back channel to the #IRGC), #Iran is believed to be culpable for attacks on PM Masrour Barzani’s Erbil offices & home of the head of the Parastin.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

#Iran is risking overplaying its hand by making a series of demands of the U.S. in the region in exchange for opening the Strait of #Hormuz. These include military withdrawals, unfreezing of Iranian assets and payment of war reparations. See @financialtimes.com, www.ft.com/content/9a1a...

ft.com

Home - Financial Times

News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

@financialtimes.com is running a terrific series on the #UAE. Well-reported and highly interesting. However, today’s part of the series examined Abu Dhabi’s growing footprint in Africa without discussion of the Emiratis’ involvement in #Libya.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Washington’s quagmire with #Iran relies on a basic trick: treating the domestic rhetoric of the regime as proof of suicidal intent while ignoring actual behavior. Excellent reality check on threat inflation from Christopher Fettweiss in the new Survival www.iiss.org/online-analy...

iiss.org

The Iran Threat in Perspective

Iran’s rhetorical overreach, fitful pursuit of a nuclear capability and religiosity are not sufficient reasons for the United States to singularly fear the Islamic Republic.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Why can't a superpower end its own allies' wars — even while arming and funding them? Bargaining theory explains war duration through commitment & info problems between belligerents, but rarely asks how a patron's weapons flows reshape that balance. @brookings.edu’s Dafna Rand takes this on directly

brookings.edu

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Provocative piece by Nader Hashemi in @foreignaffairs.com on #Iran. Suggests regime change more likely to come from peace than conflict. However, he treats the war and the peace deal after it as two separate chapters: suffer through one, cash in on the other for democratization.

foreignaffairs.com

The Hidden Path to Regime Change in Iran

Ending the war can strengthen the prospects for democracy.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

#Iran is proving the military "hammer" isn't as fungible as Trump thinks (@nytimes.com,@sangernyt.bsky.social). Like 1986 strikes on #Libya: produced a "political integrative effect,” w/ country uniting around Qaddafi. Strikes on Iran have facilitated the #IRGC's increase in influence.

nytimes.com

Trump Seems Trapped by Iran War, Even as He Wields the World’s Biggest Hammer

A president who thought there were no limits to his power has discovered several, leaving him more frustrated and erratic.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Iran war: least popular in US polling history. Just 27% say invading was right; only 1 in 4 think we won ( @economist.com). My take: Americans are defeat-averse, not casualty-averse, per se — the thesis at the heart of "Success Matters" (Gelpi, Feaver & Reifler), @intsecurity.bsky.social.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Dr. Rosemary Kelanic (@defpriorities.bsky.social) says Saudi enrichment is "a concession to Israel." It isn't. Israel opposes it, and the normalization it's meant to buy won't happen without a two-state deal this government will never offer.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

US strikes just hit an IRGC base in Sistan-Balochistan — the force that helps contain Jaish al-Adl via coordination with Pakistan, as I argued in March. Lived in Iraqi Kurdistan and Karachi — this seam matters. 🎧 @warontherocks.bsky.social - open.spotify.com/episode/2uO8...

open.spotify.com

How Arming Iranian Kurds Could Backfire

The Insider · Episode

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

The @mybisa.bsky.social publishes a great list of careers for young professionals. The jobs are in International Relations (IR) or IR-related fields. This is worth sharing with students you know looking for a position or an internship: www.bisa.ac.uk/members/work...

bisa.ac.uk

IR career starters - July 2026- Postgraduate Network (PGN) | BISA

- Postgraduate Network (PGN) Working Group

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

@mattbaidc.bsky.social drew a parallel between Trump & Jimmy Carter in @rollingstone.com (rollingstone.com/politics/pol...). However, history may show that the 47th President bears a greater likeness to a different Democratic predecessor: Lyndon Baines Johnson.

rollingstone.com

How Donald Trump Became Jimmy Carter

Donald Trump is overseeing inflation spurred by a crisis in Iran, much like former President Jimmy Carter during the hostage crisis.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

@hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social opposes “Massie Amendment” to cut off aid to #Israel BUT “given the strongly held views throughout the Caucus in this important area of foreign policy, we are not whipping this vote.“ www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...

documentcloud.org

Jeffries-dear colleague-July-14-2026

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Anti-foreign protests can be useful tools for autocracies. They allow autocrats to signal that concessions would be too costly for them to bear domestically. However, if populated by rent-a-crowds, the signal is likely to be ignored by the target state (US).

wsj.com

A Wave of Iranian Nationalism Is Drowning Out Its Diplomats

Fervor whipped up during the conflict is making it hard to compromise and easy for hard-liners to stymie progress.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

#Iran’s seizure of the #StraitofHormuz may prove to have similar long-term consequences as the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The embargoes led the U.S. and other countries to diversify their supply of oil. Dubai is building a port to circumvent the strait. www.ft.com/content/1f97...

ft.com

Dubai plans new port to bypass Strait of Hormuz

Project to build capacity on UAE’s east coast represents a major shift after US-Iran war

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

The Trump Administration’s strikes on Bandar Abbas & Sirik have left it to the rest of the world to infer what they are trying to accomplish & their strategy.

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Reposted by Dr. Albert B. Wolf

The Jerusalem Post @thejerusalempost.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter said on Sunday that the IDF will only withdraw from Lebanon if Hezbollah is removed from pilot zones in the country's south. www.jpost.com/israel-news/...

jpost.com

Israeli ambassador to US says IDF Lebanon withdrawal hinges on Hezbollah | The Jerusalem Post

He added that US President Donald Trump "has been consistent" throughout the war with Iran, saying that Israel will join the Americans in their current campaign if requested.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Deeply sorry to hear of the sudden loss of Senator Lindsey Graham. Having been part of his 2015 campaign, I always respected his tireless, globe-trotting commitment to American foreign policy and national security. May he rest in peace. My condolences to his family and staff.

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Reposted by Dr. Albert B. Wolf

NPR @npr.org · 12/07/2026

The U.S. and Iran have been exchanging strikes, with the U.S. military saying it hit 140 targets in Iran overnight, while Iran said it responded with fire toward Jordan and other Gulf states.

n.pr

U.S. launches fresh strikes on Iran as Tehran says it has closed Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. and Iran have been exchanging strikes, with the U.S. military saying it hit 140 targets in Iran overnight, while Iran said it responded with fire toward Jordan and other Gulf states.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

There is a consistent push-pull between “moderates” and “hard-liners” in #Iran over how much to engage with the world, specifically the U.S. Because of the war initiated in February 2026, the hard-liners are winning.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

The interesting thing about @rahmemanuel.bsky.social’s Tel Aviv speech was not the content. The most interesting thing about @rahmemanuel.bsky.social’s speech is it signaled the US is edging closer to a new bipartisan consensus on #Israel. Away from “no daylight” to “conditional affection.”

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Gulf unity talk is back ( @politico.com NatSecDaily). It'll fail again, like it did after 1990. Riyadh/UAE status rivalry blocks coordination. Kuwait/Qatar need Iran's goodwill for Hormuz; Saudi/UAE don't. Expect fragmentation & bespoke deals, not a bloc. More: www.19fortyfive.com/2026/06/the-...

19fortyfive.com

The Gulf No Longer Trusts America to Protect It, So It's Cutting Its Own Deal With Iran

After a U.S. security umbrella failed in 2026, the Gulf states are building their own order, engaging Iran directly rather than relying on Washington.

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Dr. Albert B. Wolf @abwolf1648.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Based on the leaked excerpts of @rahmemanuel.bsky.social’s Tel Aviv speech, it could be given by @sanders.senate.gov, @aoc.bsky.social, @mattduss.bsky.social, or @grahamformaine.bsky.social and we wouldn’t know the difference. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/07/u...

nytimes.com

As Israel Loses Support in the U.S., Rahm Emanuel Criticizes Netanyahu

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