iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19h

Week in short: Volodin consolidates inside the post-election Duma while signaling loyalty to Putin; regional Communists reject the results more sharply; military quietly prepares tools for another manpower call-up. Full details here ridl.io/volodin-s-bl... 6/6

ridl.io

Volodin’s Blank Check – Riddle Russia

Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (October 12−16)

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19h

Defense Ministry drafted a law expanding military police powers to hunt servicemen: cordons, sweeps, roadblocks, undercover ops in civilian clothes. Unnecessary now, but useful for a new mobilization wave amid higher public resistance than in 2022. 5/6

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19h

Neither made the new Duma. The KPRF lost nearly a quarter of its vote, its faction shrank, and it lost seats held by Markhayev, Mikhailov, Maria Prusakova, and Sergei Obukhov. It has held small anti-falsification rallies; ratings are rising per WCIOM. 4/6

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19h

KPRF branches in Buryatia and Komi refuse to recognize the September Duma election results. They demand regional annulment, dissolution of election commissions, and an end to three-day + electronic voting. Led by Vyacheslav Markhayev (Buryatia) and Oleg Mikhailov (Komi). 3/6

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19h

Volodin is flexing a “blank check” from Putin. The plan revives his push for greater speaker/apparatus control. The Control Committee (ally Oleg Morozov) would likely set and track the KPIs, tightening grip on committee chairs and their Kremlin/government/lobby patrons. 2/6

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19h

Key Russian political events of the week: Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin (record 3rd term) proposed KPIs for parliamentary committee chairs. Indicators would cover oversight of state programs. Underperformers could face disciplinary action or removal. 1/6

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 21h

Don't have a good enough info here to share

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Check out our series "Transformed by War: Russia’s Partners Since 2022", now with 17 articles: Turkey, Germany, Belarus, BRICS, Tajikistan, North Korea, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Transnistria, China, Iran, Venezuela, Africa, Israel, Armenia, Gulf states, Kyrgyzstan ridl.io/category/tra...

ridl.io

Transformed by War: Russia’s Partners Since 2022 – Riddle Russia

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Here's an interesting story from the files of my criminal case in Russia. The prosecution asserts that it repeatedly tried to reach me with notices and summons—by sending text messages to my mother's landline. The kind of phone that functions exactly the same way it did in 1965.

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said that one should “approach independent Russian journalism with great caution and double-check everything three times” Translation: all Russians are the same and potentially are the enemy

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I sure hope someone will ping Latvia about this in the similar spirit as they do regarding Ragozin

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Russian grain transit through Latvia (including the Port of Riga) rose 2.7-fold in Q1 2026 to 139k tones. In August it was up 56% and in September monthly volume nearly doubled. Ukraine makes Black Sea exports too dangerous. Latvia comes to the rescue.

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

These rankings are useful signals of corporate prominence and how the Russian market has shifted since 2022. They are much less reliable as monetary valuations without transparency. Full analysis by Mihaela Vata for ridl.io ridl.io/what-russia-...

ridl.io

What Russia’s Brand Numbers Can and Can’t Tell You – Riddle Russia

Mihaela Vata on why Russia’s new brand rankings are easier to trust as a map of corporate prominence than as prices

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The ratios are striking. BrandLab puts Sber at ~37% of market cap, Yandex around 62%, Ozon at 86%, and some retail brands above their parent’s entire market value. Sber is also a BrandLab client, and the founder previously worked there—raising the usual questions about independence. 3/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

BrandLab stepped in after international brand valuers pulled back from Russia. It uses a royalty-relief approach, but key assumptions (revenue bases, royalty rates, growth forecasts, discount rates) are not disclosed. That makes the figures hard to stress-test as actual prices. 2/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Sber’s brand is valued at ₽2.35 trillion ($28.0 billion USD) by BrandLab—about 37% of the bank’s market cap and nearly four times higher than Brand Finance’s earlier estimate. What do these numbers actually show about Russia’s corporate landscape? And what can’t they tell us? #sanctions Thread 1/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Bottomline: Putin prioritizes comfort, predictability, and elite balance over renewal. The “new elite” gets symbolic representation while real influence stays with the old system. ridl.io/personnel-on... 5/5

ridl.io

Personnel on Pause – Riddle Russia

Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (October 5−11)

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Regional speakers and Federation Council seats went to loyal bureaucrats from governors’ teams, not military figures. Administrative experience and personal loyalty trumped combat credentials. Even aspirants with war participation were passed over. 4/5

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

New Duma did not become a “military parliament.” Even on generous counts, Ukraine war “veterans” make up only slightly over 10%. They were diluted into low-profile roles rather than given real power. 3/5

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Anton Vaino, Valentina Matviyenko, Sergey Lavrov stay on. Ambitious figures like Medvedev and Kiriyenko remain in undesired roles. Post-election windows closed: Volodin’s record tenure continues, Sobyanin stays mayor, Mishustin remains PM. 2/5

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Putin’s personnel policy is on pause. Even after the Duma elections he stuck to an ultra-conservative approach: longevity for familiar faces, no real reshuffles, and carefully controlled “new elite” entry. New Andrey Pertsev for ridl.io Thread 1/5

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

And it is hypocritical making excuses for Russians with money or residences that EU nations need while pushing for full ban

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I am against full visa can period. Having the capacity to obtain a EU or rather have it open is life or death/prison for many Russians that at any point of time can come under fire at home. Fleeing to EU is the only safe option. Everyone else deports back

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Lukashenko can still claim that he merely adapted to Putin and did everything possible to preserve sovereignty. To a significant extent he succeeded. ridl.io/russia-and-b...

ridl.io

Russia and Belarus: A Satellite with Room to Maneuver – Riddle Russia

Roman Chernikov on how Belarus has tried to preserve its sovereignty after 2022

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

OVD-Info recorded a slowdown in Russia’s repression campaign before and during the elections. The first days after the Duma vote suggest the crackdown is about to intensify. ridl.io/repression-a...

ridl.io

Repression Around Russia’s Duma Election: What the Data Shows – Riddle Russia

Denis Shedov, Daniil Beilinson, and Eilish Hart on how the Kremlin used the State Duma election as a disciplinary tool

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Kremlin knows which Russian figures Western analysts actually use. Common mistakes: treating official prices as market prices, ignoring decrees that change what the number means, and reading buffers as proof of stability. How to avoid them: ridl.io/seven-mistak...

ridl.io

Seven mistakes in analyzing data from Russia — and how to avoid them – Riddle Russia

Dmytro Voronenko on how official Russian numbers are "rebuilt"

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

ridl.io

Seven mistakes in analyzing data from Russia — and how to avoid them – Riddle Russia

Dmytro Voronenko on how official Russian numbers are "rebuilt"

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

OVD-Info recorded a slowdown in Russia’s repression campaign before and during the elections. The first days after the Duma vote suggest the crackdown is about to intensify. ridl.io/repression-a...

ridl.io

Repression Around Russia’s Duma Election: What the Data Shows – Riddle Russia

Denis Shedov, Daniil Beilinson, and Eilish Hart on how the Kremlin used the State Duma election as a disciplinary tool

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Lukashenko can still claim that he merely adapted to Putin and did everything possible to preserve sovereignty. To a significant extent he succeeded. ridl.io/russia-and-b...

ridl.io

Russia and Belarus: A Satellite with Room to Maneuver – Riddle Russia

Roman Chernikov on how Belarus has tried to preserve its sovereignty after 2022

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Over a quarter of a million Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were identified by name. Not a full list by far. Aside from lower than desired recruitment rate, this doesn’t seem to bother Putin at all. I can imagine him saying “we’ve lost 27 million during WWII. This is nothing”

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Do you want to know how exactly the Kremlin cooked this year's Duma elections results? Check out this ridl.io article ridl.io/linear-russia/

ridl.io

Linear Russia – Riddle Russia

Ksenia Smolyakova on how the Russia authorities got the result they wanted in the State Duma election

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

New round of mobilization would add strain to Russian political system, but on its own is unlikely to trigger a marked increase in protest activity ridl.io/mobilization...

ridl.io

Mobilization After the Elections? – Riddle Russia

Olga Irisova and Anton Barbashin on how experts assess the likelihood of a new wave of mobilization in 2026

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Russia can punish NATO. It cannot afford to fight NATO. While Moscow is still stuck in Ukraine it does not have the men, the air defenses, or the spare capacity for a real war with the Alliance — even a “limited” one in the Baltics. 1/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

As soon as elections have passed, Russian Ministry of Economic Development has revised down their baseline forecast for 2027 from 2% to 0.2% The Bank of Russia has likewise lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0−1%, from 0.5−1.5% What comes next? @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/the-hangover/

ridl.io

The Hangover – Riddle Russia

Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 21 — 25)

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Duma election results and what it says about genuine support for United Russia, unpopular measures that follow and why Volodin keeps his seat - Weekly political news analysis from Andrey Pertsev ridl.io/the-state-du...

ridl.io

The State Duma Election as an Anti-Plebiscite – Riddle Russia

Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (September 21−25)

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin

Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

russian Ministry of Economic Development follows Bank of russia and decreased their 2027 forecast from 2% to 0.2%. Bank of russia has already lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0%. ridl.io/the-hangover/

ridl.io

The Hangover – Riddle Russia

Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 21 — 25)

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

ridl.io

The State Duma Election as an Anti-Plebiscite – Riddle Russia

Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (September 21−25)

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

ridl.io

The Hangover – Riddle Russia

Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 21 — 25)

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Still the useful distinction if someone is treating every BRICS summit as a strategic breakthrough. Russia got a stage. It did not get a system. Read the full text ridl.io/what-putin-w... 4/4

ridl.io

What Putin Wants from BRICS – Riddle Russia

Anton Barbashin on what Moscow has actually achieved within BRICS since 2022

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

India, Brazil and South Africa will not turn the club into an anti-sanctions alliance. The NDB did not become Russia’s offshore financier. There is no BRICS currency and no payments rail that actually replaces the ones Moscow lost. 3/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The wishlist: multipolarity, de-dollarization, an independent payments system, a World Bank substitute, plus culture/tech forums. The delivery: more members, more local-currency deals with a few partners, and declarations that stay carefully general on Ukraine. 2/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Putin talks about #BRICS as the architecture of a new world. What Russia actually got is a bigger photo-op and some bilateral workarounds. 1/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Worth reading this @erwoods.bsky.social for ridl.io in full if you want the military math instead of the usual “next they come for us” framing. ridl.io/why-russia-w... 4/4

ridl.io

Why Russia Will Not Attack NATO – Riddle Russia

Eric Woods on why Russia can punish NATO—but cannot afford to fight it

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The more likely tools are the ones already in use: sabotage, hired reconnaissance, ship incidents, pressure on officials. Those can raise costs for Europe. They do not change the fact that Russia still cannot achieve its minimum goals in Ukraine. 3/4

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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Putin himself said in June the force in Ukraine is only 700,000. On paper the army is now 1.5 million+. That gap is the whole story. A second front against Finland (huge reserves) + Poland + Ukraine simultaneously would be fatal. 2/4

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