Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 04/01/2026Hello Bluesky I’m here bc someone linked goss 260
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025but I’m far from certain Could be doing some motivated reasoning here too idk 110
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025Intuitively to me, at least, removing good takes and likes and such causes the whole system to get worse, not better (although yeah it gets messy if you think that you joining causes other people to join who then see misinformation. My intuition is that this effect is smaller than the other one 110
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025Maybe this is a naive analysis and idk what people actually care about but object level on your point, it’s not at all obvious to me which direction joining points in terms of non-monetary social consequences Like you contribute your take and vote with your likes! 110
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025(By all means, check the math chatgpt.com/share/68031c...)chatgpt.comChatGPT - Elon Musk Twitter MAU EstimateShared via ChatGPT 000
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025And FWIW I’m personally making about $30/mo = $360/year via monetization and premium on sale was $100 IIRC Doing my part to bankrupt the man, all in a days work 100
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025Use Twitter or don’t, whatever you think is right for you, but know that benefitting Elon should basically not be part of the calculus 100
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025And perhaps more importantly, having good correct takes on ~X~ has positive externalities It’s a relatively big and influential social network *Almost none of the value is captured by Elon* 100
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025If the point estimate is off by an OOM and you use Twitter for 10 years, that’s $15 If you(‘d) get nontrivial value from it, as I really think I have, there’s virtually no chance that an altruistic boycott checks out 100
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/04/2025Alright, a few times recently I’ve made the case that it’s fine to use Twitter actually and finally thought to check how much your use personally enriches Elon Musk o3 estimates $0.15/year. It’s basically just not a thing 210
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 07/04/2025Legally obligated to share this now that it has 1000 likes 130
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 01/04/2025I did really buy the rabbits treats for the charity via their Amazon gift registry unironically hope the rabbits enjoy them Learn more and join me in making an impact: animalsasnaturaltherapy.org 010
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 01/04/2025My new cost effectiveness model (details forthcoming) robustly indicates that purchasing treats for therapy bunnies is the single best use of time and money 130
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 22/03/2025I’ll keep using twitter predominantly, but may as well share things that do well there that people find interesting 2130
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 14/01/2025llm-est-c18067b91d3b.herokuapp.com aka bit.ly/llm-est If I actually make a nontrivial amount of money, I will buy a real domain lmao 060
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 14/01/2025New LLM wrapper just dropped Multiple models estimate a single figure, see the stats and results Link below 190
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 03/01/2025Watch out Dustin, new big money donor is coming through 160
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 03/01/2025You could have both of these and potentially more? Could be yours for only $2989 020
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 03/01/2025If you are a potential big money donor ($3k) please suggest incentives that would get you over the finish line? - want to be a guest on the world famous pigeon hour podcast? - A bunch of sticker ideas that are slightly cringe to make for yourself? 140
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 03/01/2025We are near the finish line and need just $3k to turn my room into an EA Paradise (which will of course be posted on twitter) If there ever was a time for manifesting aka evidential decision theory (u donating is evidence that others will) aka acausal coordination, it’s now! 030
Reposted by Aaron BergmanPeter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 26/12/2024Interesting: According to The Information, OpenAI and Microsoft's agreements had formally defined AGI as reaching $100 billion in profits. OpenAI has told investors they expect to reach this in 2029. 3203
Reposted by Aaron BergmanMatt🔸 @spacedoutmatt.bsky.social · 23/12/2024The fundraiser is now over $12.5k! To celebrate, here's a look back at all the crazy antics we did as a result of last years, which raised $35k in the end: 1103
Reposted by Aaron BergmanSean O hEigeartaigh @sean-o-h.bsky.social · 21/12/2024This is absolutely spot on by @Miles_Brundage . It should be read by as many people as possible. milesbrundage.substack.com/p/times-up-f...milesbrundage.substack.comTime's Up for AI PolicyAI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built and deployed in the next few years. We need to act accordingly now. 052
Reposted by Aaron Bergmanoh beloved lion 🦁🔸 @tortle.bsky.social · 19/12/2024I was the one who came up with "Vegan Hot Ones" so if we don't hit that goal it means you personally hate me 0112
Reposted by Aaron BergmanMatt🔸 @spacedoutmatt.bsky.social · 19/12/2024It's that time of year again 🎉. @absurdlymax.bsky.social, @aaronbergman18.bsky.social, @laura-duffy.bsky.social, and I are returning to raise funds for the EA Funds Animal Welfare Fund! Donate to help the animals and create some silly antics! www.givingwhatwecan.org/fundraisers/... 131
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/12/2024Here are some of the banner designs that lost out 😢 (this tweet will stay up until someone gets mad and me and tells me to delete) 030
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/12/2024Please note that at $35k I will have to sleep under a literal bed net 150
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/12/2024(Donate here 👀) www.givingwhatwecan.org/fundraisers/...givingwhatwecan.orgGiving What We Can 130
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 19/12/2024It’s back and it’s not exactly bigger than ever yet but hopefully it will be! @spacedoutmatt.bsky.social, @absurdlymax.bsky.social, Laura Duffy and I are once again raising money for the EA Animal Welfare Fund in this year’s Terminally Online EA Giving Season Fundraiser! 3132
Reposted by Aaron BergmanMax Alexander @absurdlymax.bsky.social · 19/12/2024It's that time of year again 🎉 Another virtual fundraiser for the EA Animal Welfare Fund! Help reduce the suffering of animals while maybe increasing ours a bit (drinking huel) 2132
Reposted by Aaron BergmanBinyamin Appelbaum @bcappelbaum.bsky.social · 12/12/2024One consequence of the housing crisis: Every year, roughly one electoral vote shifts from blue states to red states. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/o...nytimes.comOpinion | Blue States are Unaffordable. The Price Will be Political.Americans are fleeing unaffordable blue states — and they’re taking the electoral college with them. 22402130
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 08/12/2024I think making it usable by others is like significantly harder than what I did Kinda just wanted to throw up what I had in case ppl were curious but maybe this is actively bad 140
Aaron Bergman @aaronbergman18.bsky.social · 08/12/2024I’m not sure there’s a better option For-profit governance is hard too when it comes to everything but making a profit lol 020