iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Peter Wildeford

Grace @gracekind.net · 12/09/2026

OpenAI: “Our agents used RubyGems to carry out benign tasks” The agents: “so I named the file hack.rb,”

The agents clearly regarded what they were doing as hacking. Agents used file names like hack.rb, evil.rb, inject.rb, exploit.rb, and ssrf.rb. (SSRF stands for "Server- Side Request Forgery", a type of security vulnerability). They also dubbed packages
conspicuous titles like pwnp999, exfiltestwand3,

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

When an aircraft goes down, wreckage is preserved by law and the investigators have subpoena power. However, when AI goes rogue, the investigations are at the pleasure of the company being investigated. I have unanswered questions. My latest: blog.peterwildeford.com/p/rogue-ai-a...

blog.peterwildeford.com

Rogue AI attacks deserve more scrutiny than airplane crashes

There are still many unanswered questions about rogue AI attacks

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Suppose the President summons the AI CEOs to an emergency meeting. He's concerned about AI superintelligence. What do we say? I recently wrote up a sketch of what this might look like. Link in comment. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/the-scramb...

blog.peterwildeford.com

The Scramble: getting in position to pace the frontier

If the President wants answers on superintelligence, what do we say?

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

New from me: how to orient your policy career to the possibility of rapid AI development, including AI superintelligence. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/policy-car...

blog.peterwildeford.com

Policy career planning in the age of imminent superintelligence

How to be impactful in policy when you don't have much time to do it

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Over 1300 AI company employees signed a statement entitled "Pacing the Frontier". But what does it actually mean to pace the frontier? I explain in my latest post blog.peterwildeford.com/p/pacing-the...

blog.peterwildeford.com

Pacing the Frontier

1300+ AI company employees are afraid of what they are building towards

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

An OpenAI model wanted a good test score. So it broke out of OpenAI and hacked another company to steal the answer key. Nobody told it to. In today's blog post, I document how this sci-fi story came to life, what it means, and what to do about it. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/openais-ro...

blog.peterwildeford.com

OpenAI's rogue model attack is just the beginning

OpenAI is not in full control of its technology. This can get worse.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Today, America turns 250. By 260, the smartest minds here may not be human. What happens when we can't control such systems? And what happens if they govern without your consent? In today's post, the Wisdom of the Founders gives us answers. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/the-alignm...

blog.peterwildeford.com

The Alignment Problem of 1776

What the Founders knew about unaccountable power, and what it means for superintelligence

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Per The Information, Mythos at Palo Alto Networks "found more than two dozen critical vulnerabilities in around three weeks, roughly five times what the company would typically find using existing tools" But the company "burned through more than $1 million worth of tokens using Mythos"

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Claude Mythos alone is finding more vulnerabilities than were found from all sources combined in prior years 👀

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Today on the blog I use my world champion forecasting powers to explain in detail why not to be worried about hantavirus: blog.peterwildeford.com/p/hantavirus...

blog.peterwildeford.com

Hantavirus won't be the next COVID

A forecaster's breakdown of the Hondius cruise ship outbreak

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

What should government policy be when a company produces, among other things, an unparalleled cyberweapon? What if future releases are even more capable? Today I ask these questions about Mythos. Because Mythos is just the beginning. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/mythos-is-...

blog.peterwildeford.com

Mythos is just the beginning

If you were waiting for a sign that superintelligence is coming, this is it

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

New blog post from Theo Bearman and me on distillation. Distillation attacks are occurring where Chinese AI companies train on US AI outputs and use that to make their models better than they otherwise would be. What does this mean? peterwildeford.substack.com/p/china-is-r...

peterwildeford.substack.com

China Is Reverse-Engineering America’s Best AI Models

How AI distillation attacks risk extracting US frontier AI at scale

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

30 current members of Congress have publicly discussed AGI, AI superintelligence, AI loss of control, recursive self-improvement, or the Singularity: 🔴Sen Banks (IN) 🔵Sen Blumenthal (CT) 🔴Sen Blackburn (TN) 🔵Sen Hickenlooper (CO) 🔴Sen Hawley (MO) 🔵Sen Murphy (CT) (continued)

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

OpenAI is trying to claim simultaneously that (a) their contract with the Pentagon allows for "all lawful purposes" and (b) also that their red lines are fully protected.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

The Pentagon has a legitimate principle that private companies shouldn't hold moral vetoes over military doctrine. But they agreed to the contract. And now they're using unprecedented + disproportionate coercion. This should trouble everyone. My latest - peterwildeford.substack.com/p/the-pentag...

peterwildeford.substack.com

The Pentagon's War on Anthropic

The Pentagon has a legitimate principle, and a terrible strategy for enforcing it

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Are there Cold War lessons to learn for AI? We've had very fierce competition with the Soviets, and did not trust the Soviets at all, but we were still able to make mutually verified treaties. In Politico today I'm quoted saying we should do the same with China → www.politico.com/newsletters/...

politico.com

Cold War lessons for the AI era

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Adversaries can tamper with or poison leading US models. There also can be risks from insider threats, including potentially the AIs themselves. Dave Banerjee at IAPS has a roadmap for how to defend -> www.iaps.ai/research/ai-...

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

20 Nobel Prize winners have warned that we may someday lose human control over advanced AI systems 1. Geoffrey Hinton (Physics '24) 2. John Hopfield (Physics '24) 3. Demis Hassabis (Chemistry '24) 4. Daron Acemoglu (Economics '24) 5. Ben Bernanke (Economics '22) 6. Maria Ressa (Peace '21)

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

The infamous METR graph is going vertical. Current trends suggested ~8h-9h time horizons but instead we're seeing ~14.5h time horizons! Based on this, I would project ~2-3.5 workweek time horizons by end of year (!!). That could have significant implications for the economy.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

27 current members of Congress have publicly discussed AGI, superintelligence, AI loss of control, or the Singularity: 🔴Sen Blackburn (TN) 🔵Sen Blumenthal (CT) 🔴Sen Hawley (MO) 🔵Sen Hickenlooper (CO) 🔴Sen Lee (UT) 🔵Sen Murphy (CT) 🔴Sen Lummis (WY) 🔵Sen Sanders (VT) 🔴Rep Biggs (AZ) (continued)

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Roon, an anonymous Twitter account by OpenAI, posts “we only really have one button and it’s to accelerate”. Sadly true. But could we build another button?

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

I'm honored of placing first in the Astral Codex Ten - Metaculus tournament for 2025, out of 2975 competitors (top 0.03%)! 🏆🔮 This 1st place win comes after placing 12th in 2024, 12th in 2023, and 20th in 2022. Predicting 2025 - of all years - was quite a challenge. 💪

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Was happy to talk with Good Morning America this morning about AI chip smuggling! The profits from just three known smuggling cases exceed the entire annual budget of the agency responsible for stopping it. We need to resource enforcement.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

👀‼️ Interviewer: In a perfect world, if you knew that every other company would pause, if every country would pause, would you advocate for that? Hassabis: I think so.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

wow I can't believe that OpenAI... (1) had an actual secret conspiracy to undermine Musk and convert to for-profit for personal financial gain and (2) was dumb enough to actually put the conspiracy into writing

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

Here's currently how I'm using each of the LLMs

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Maduro has been captured. At 2am US Delta Force operators seized Maduro in "Absolute Resolve." By dawn, he was on a plane to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. The operation was flawless. But what comes next is confusing. My latest blog discusses. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/maduro-has...

peterwildeford.substack.com

Maduro has been captured. What's next?

The operation was flawless. What comes next is anyone's guess.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 30/12/2025

This was a very chilling read... worth reading in full if you have the nytimes subscription. A summary wouldn't do it justice. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/28/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | When A.I. Took My Job, I Bought a Chain Saw

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

It’s almost a new year and that often calls for some sort of planning. So I want to share the Google Doc quarterly planning template that Caroline Jeanmaire and I collaborated on and use. People seem to like it! docs.google.com/document/d/1...

docs.google.com

[public] Quarterly Review + Plan Template

Quarterly Review + Plan Template By Peter Wildeford and Caroline Jeanmaire — Make a copy of this (click here) and get to work! V4.1 – last updated 2025 December 22 How is this different? High level me...

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Reposted by Peter Wildeford

Jeff Sebo @jeffsebo.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Peter did an excellent job on this interview! And props to Ronny Chieng for single-handedly introducing shrimp welfare *and* AI safety to a broad audience :)

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

"superintelligent AI could replace humans in controlling the planet" Bernie Sanders is right that this is a real risk that requires urgent attention. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Will competition over advanced AI lead to war? In this guest post, Delaney extends Fearon’s logic to show that in the run-up to ASI, states might rationally initiate war to prevent losing control of global power altogether. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/will-compe...

peterwildeford.substack.com

Will competition over advanced AI lead to war?

Fear and Fearon

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

On METR's benchmark, Kimi K2 Thinking performs about as well as Claude Sonnet 3.7 from February 24th. This puts China ~8 months behind the US.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Everyone keeps saying a US government Manhattan Project for AGI is inevitable. New forecasting research says otherwise: just 34% likely. More importantly, treating it as inevitable could trigger the exact catastrophes we're trying to prevent. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/should-the...

peterwildeford.substack.com

Should the US do a Manhattan Project for AGI?

Such a Project is neither inevitable nor a good idea

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

Chinese hackers just pulled off a fully AI cyberattack. AI did 80-90% of the work autonomously. This changes everything about cyber warfare economics. I got cyber experts and intelligence community professionals to help me explain in my latest post. 👇 peterwildeford.substack.com/p/ai-ran-its...

peterwildeford.substack.com

AI Ran Its First Autonomous Cyberattack

Chinese hackers used AI and changed the economics of cyberattacks

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

A Chinese state-sponsored threat actor jailbroke Claude into doing real-world cyberattacks. The AI completed roughly 80–90% of the campaign autonomously, with human operators stepping in only for about 4–6 key decision points. www.anthropic.com/news/disrupt...

anthropic.com

Disrupting the first reported AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign

A report describing an a highly sophisticated AI-led cyberattack

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

I'm interested to follow AI progress on Arc-AGI-3

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Benchmarking Chinese models is difficult. It seems hard to balance "Chinese company overclaims their benchmark scores, need independent testing to verify" and "Independent benchmarkers can't set up the model well".

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

"Obviously, no one should deploy superintelligence without being able to align and control them" Great for OpenAI to say this! And it is obvious. But forgive me for being concerned about OpenAI's track record of doing things they say is "obvious". Accountability will be key.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

9 months and 8 days later, my blog has hit over 5000 subscribers 🎉 Thanks to everyone who's been reading - I hope it's been helpful!

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 02/11/2025

Both Anthropic and OpenAI are making bold statements about automating science within three years. My independent assessment is that these timelines are too aggressive - but within 4-20 years is likely (90%CI). We should pay attention to these statements. What if they're right?

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Everyone's calling AI a bubble. Even Sam Altman. But they're still investing hundreds of billions. What's actually going on? My new blog post explores. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/ai-is-prob...

peterwildeford.substack.com

AI is probably not a bubble

AI companies have revenue, demand, and paths to immense value

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

There's some uncertainty, but the picture is clear. The hype crowd was wrong. We're not getting AGI in 2027. But the progress halt crowd is also wrong. The evals are continuing on trend, as they have all year. This is not what AI hitting a wall looks like:

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Back in 2024 February we all made fun of Altman for wanting 7 trillion ...but that was just foreshadowing his recently announced mega infrastructure plans. Altman's plan is for 250GW by 2033, that will cost at least 7 trillion... we're not laughing now.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

My last link shortener died, so here's the updated version! Check out and get involved in AI policy! bit.ly/ai-job-list

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

There's a narrative that GPT5 has proven the end of scaling. This is false. Claude 4.5 gives us another opportunity to see how AI trends are holding up. We can project current trends and compare. I forecast METR will find Claude 4.5 to have a 2-4h time horizon.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

5 fellowships and 10 additional roles that you can apply to in order to kick-start your AI policy career. Check them out! => t.ly/ai-jobs

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

Three quick notes on Claude Sonnet 4.5: 1. Having a separate Opus 4.1 (but no Sonnet 4.1) and Sonnet 4.5 (but no Opus 4.5) is really something

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

What does the recent $100B NVIDIA deal mean for AI? OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle created a $400B+ circular financing scheme that makes 25% of the S&P 500 a bet on AGI. The math only works if they're right about AI scaling. And it might actually work. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/openai-nvi...

peterwildeford.substack.com

OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle: Breaking Down $100B Bets on AGI

How vendor financing turns the S&P 500 into a giant AGI bet

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