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Andy McKay @korimakoecology.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

I don't always agree with Raewyn Peart at EDS but apart from the bit about "industry aligned scientists" this is mostly bang on.

“Tarakihi is an iconic fish for many New Zealanders. Most of the catch is consumed here at home and is a staple in restaurants, supermarkets and fish and chip shops across the country.

“New information released by Fisheries NZ shows the stock along the eastern coast of the country has been declining since the 1940s and has been overfished for six decades.

“The western coast stock has also been in long-term decline, but the trend accelerated dramatically after 2017.

“The collapse of tarakihi highlights multiple failures in our quota management system which was tasked with keeping the stock healthy:

There has been a chronic lack of investment in fisheries science. Despite being managed under the quota management system for 40 years, the western tarakihi stock only this year received its first full stock assessment.
There has been excessive confidence in fisheries models based on patchy data and multiple assumptions. Earlier models significantly overestimated the size of the eastern stock.
Previous stock assessments failed to account for the impacts of climate change which have likely reduced tarakihi recruitment. This is despite decades of seawater warming, and a sharp increase in marine heatwaves since 2012, with an extreme event in 2017.
The science peer review process failed to identify errors in the 2022 eastern tarakihi model. The review process lacks independence, with industry-aligned scientists embedded within the process.
Management action has been far too slow. Catch limits for most of the western tarakihi stock have not changed since 1986. It has effectively been a case of setting the Total Allowable Commercial Catch and walking away.
Stock management areas do not align with biological stocks, making effective management difficult. In particular, the TAR 1 and TAR 7 management areas span both the western and eastern stocks. Fisheries NZ is only now consulting on their possible subdivision.
Tarakihi are harvested before they’re old enough to spawn. The…

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Andy McKay @korimakoecology.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

I've been involved in a lot of Science Working Groups. They contain MPI fisheries analysts and scientists, NIWA and other independent scientists, recreational advocates, eNGOs and industry scientists. To claim that working groups lack independence because of "industry aligned scientists" is absurd.

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Andrew @openpolicy.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

On the other hand, MPI is a structurally conflicted ministry, and NZ has deliberately ignored the lessons from the UK about BSE, that the regulation, science and other functions of primary production management need to be institutionally separated from the industry promotion functions.

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Andy McKay @korimakoecology.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Point 7. Relies on the spawn-at-least-once principle being true. This is an outdated concept in harvest management for many species. I haven't looked at tarakihi specifically but I'm not aware of any actual evidence pointing to this as being the optimum harvest strategy.

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