Nils' point is accurate.
The math is simple: no, even with Germany doing its part, Europe can't fill the gap left by fading US demand.
The US accounts for ~50% of global trade deficits.
DEU's expected trade surplus decline will provide incremental demand to the global economy similar to FRA.
@nilsredeker.bsky.socialGood piece! Especially, since Europe's role in filling the gap left by fading US demand remains very much in question.
In strategic sectors it will - hopefully - shield itself from absorbing Chinese overcapacities.
Everywhere else, a lot will hinge on how the macro picture evolves.
