Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 22/04/20267/10 Right now, signals are mixed: – Disruption without clean pricing alignment – Hesitation in shipping flows – Volatility without clear trend That’s not a stable ceasefire position being reflected in the operational markets. That’s uncertainty under pressure. 170
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 22/04/20268/10 This is the dangerous zone. Not full war. Not real peace. But ambiguous control of access — where both sides can claim they’re acting defensively. That’s where miscalculation happens. A ship boarded or prevented from sailing (as has already happened) could be the powder keg. 180
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 22/04/20269/10 The deeper shift here isn’t about posturing or headlines. It’s about control of physical flow of goods. Who can move energy, goods, and ships — and under what conditions. That’s what markets are actually pricing. 3121