Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 22/04/20266/10 So what do we look at? – War risk insurance premiums – Shipping behaviour (delays, rerouting) – Energy market volatility These tell you whether the system believes there is peace… or not. 170
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 22/04/20267/10 Right now, signals are mixed: – Disruption without clean pricing alignment – Hesitation in shipping flows – Volatility without clear trend That’s not a stable ceasefire position being reflected in the operational markets. That’s uncertainty under pressure. 170
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 22/04/20268/10 This is the dangerous zone. Not full war. Not real peace. But ambiguous control of access — where both sides can claim they’re acting defensively. That’s where miscalculation happens. A ship boarded or prevented from sailing (as has already happened) could be the powder keg. 180
