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Wittman Watch @wittmanwatch.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Finally we have some decent polls for #VA01 and @bluevirginia.bsky.social has the report! 🤓💪 @shannontaylorva.com's chances of winning range from 23% to 52%. Why such a range? Blame DecisionDeskHQ: only they rate Wittman's chances at 77%. Everyone else has the race as basically a toss-up.

bluevirginia.us

With 45 Days to Go Until 11/3/26, How Do the Political Modelers/Forecasters Rate the Midterms - Nationally and in Virginia - for US House Right Now? - Blue Virginia

With early voting having started in Virginia yesterday, and with November 3 rapidly approaching (just 45 days away), where do the political modelers/forecasters have the midterms right now? I checked…

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Wittman Watch @wittmanwatch.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

In toss-up scenarios, as @gelliottmorris.com has shown, polls are likely UNDERPLAYING Dem's chances across the country. Bottom line: GET OUT THE VOTE. Vote early, take friends, knock doors, send postcards. If #VA01 flips, it'll be because voters turned up. We can fire Wittman - IF FOLKS VOTE!

gelliottmorris.com

The race raters are lowballing the Democrats

Based on my analysis of their historical ratings, Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are probably underestimating Democrats' House win probability by about 30 percentage points

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