Maggie Perry @maggieperry.bsky.social · 08/03/2025And all though that might seem like a small thing, it really does matter - Having an incumbent MP generally seems to give a percent or two, which although minor, could very easily swing a lot of races in favour of Labor. 3/23 🧵 110
Maggie Perry @maggieperry.bsky.social · 08/03/2025Another problem I see for the Liberals here is that some of their biggest swings could very well be in extremely safe seats held on over 30% for Labor, while their smaller swings could be in the places they're looking to pick up. 4/23 🧵 100
Maggie Perry @maggieperry.bsky.social · 08/03/2025We saw something like this happen at the 2022 federal election - The Libs had a swing against them in 13/15 of their most marginal seats, but had a swing towards them in more than half of Labor's 15 safest seats - In places that wouldn't change hands. 5/23 🧵 110
