iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Replies

Maggie Perry @maggieperry.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

The 2021 state election result, as our starting point, is *bleak* for the Liberals. Labor has the advantage of having incumbent MPs in dozens of electorates, while the Liberals and Nationals combined only have 5 incumbent house MPs running for re-election. 2/23 🧵

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Maggie Perry @maggieperry.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

And all though that might seem like a small thing, it really does matter - Having an incumbent MP generally seems to give a percent or two, which although minor, could very easily swing a lot of races in favour of Labor. 3/23 🧵

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Maggie Perry @maggieperry.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

Another problem I see for the Liberals here is that some of their biggest swings could very well be in extremely safe seats held on over 30% for Labor, while their smaller swings could be in the places they're looking to pick up. 4/23 🧵

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