iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Expectations toward 2026 There are many components to military success, and the war is increasingly shifting into the diplomatic domain, which may ultimately shape the outcome. Technology will also affect the dynamics. Neither side has lost its ability to fight yet.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Despite Russian dominance along much of the front, the AFU still retains limited counter-capabilities. Time itself is no longer decisive, but the manpower drain is ruthless. Based on that, here are my baseline expectations for the next year.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Ukraine should prepare counterattacks, but I do not expect meaningful success against the current Russian army. For that, Russian forces would first need to be worn down enough for gaps to appear.

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