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Propaganda in policy change has limitations. Contradictory soft propaganda fails to persuade citizens to approve of government performance, while excessively one-sided hard propaganda for a new policy may lead citizens to view protests against the previous policy as justified.

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Yet, hard propaganda has limitations. When its inconsistency (red dashed lines, upper panel) is less apparent-exposed only to pro-reopen propaganda-its protest-deterrence effect vanishes. Lower panel suggests it's likely due to heightened protest righteousness against local authorities (red dashed).

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When respondents are exposed to conflicting hard propaganda messages (solid red bar, upper panel), they become less willing to participate in protests against lockdown. This may be due to the contradictory hard rhetoric further reinforcing the apparent regime strength.

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We find that contradictory soft propaganda significantly decreased citizens’ assessment of the government's COVID performance (blue solid line in upper panel), while all pro-reopen messages increased respondents’ revealed support for reopening (dashed lines in lower panel).

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We recruited 3,314 online respondents in China in December 2022 and randomly assigned them real pro-Zero-Covid and pro-reopen persuasive and assertive official messages—a realistic scenario when the official stance changed within days amid high policy uncertainty.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

In December 2022, Chinese official propaganda on COVID policy made a sharp U-turn. How did these contradictory messages from the policy shift impact citizens’ perceptions? We find "soft" ones lost persuasiveness while "hard" ones more strongly deterred protests. @psrm.bsky.social

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There will never be a better deal that takes Chinese voices global, as foreign creators bring their audiences to their jurisdiction, on their terms, under their regulations, with an interest in Chinese content. Shutting down this is equivalent to forgoing every cultural leadership prospect of China.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

What struck me the most in this Vivek saga is that how naturally aligned are tech mongols and the Democrats who supported legal immigration. The breakdown of their alliance on DEI has been very unfortunate for America.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Japanese newspapers today: Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi merge.

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The summer-kid globalist explanation overlooks Guan Zhong’s deeper statecraft lesson. Losing essential industries (agriculture in 650 BC, manufacturing today) threatens survival. As we face deglobalization and reindustrialization, we should revisit Dutch Disease in Guan Zhong’s light.

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What Dutch disease is, and why it's bad

In 2014, The Economist clarified Dutch Disease was harmful because commodity prices fluctuate, ignoring supply chain security. www.economist.com/the-economis...

economist.com

The term was coined by The Economist in 1977, but what does it mean?

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Dutch Disease was first problematized in 1977 by @TheEconomist, assuming a “manufacturing primacy” during the Cold War and Oil Crisis. Oil/gas advantages were seen as inferior due to their temporary, windfall nature.

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I searched for similar ideas in Ancient Greece and found none. In Ancient Greece, free trade was natural, exploiting your comparative advantage was the norm. No one like Herodotus coined a “Corinth Disease” for exporting pottery.

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This is known as 衡山之谋. Guan Zhong’s thinking was physiocratic in an era of fierce interstate rivalry, where trade could be cut off and war was common. Prudent statesmen should prioritize agriculture for self-sufficiency.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

I taught Dutch Disease in my political economy class. My Classical Chinese colleague heard about it and said it’s exactly what ancient Chinese philosopher Guan Zhong (700–645 BC) did: tricking a neighbor state into abandoning agriculture by stimulating non-agricultural demand.

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My Grandma must’ve been hearing so many chats among her circles about Ke Wang over the years but could not join in. That’s why she explained herself more than once that she was busy. The moment she found out she can choose what TV plays, she sprint to catch up with the 30 years ago trend.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

“Ke Wang”(1990), or “Yearning” in English, is a household-name TV series in China with an eye-popping 90.78% ratings. My Grandma got streaming TV and picked it up. She explained she hadn’t watched it because she was busy working. She probably thought she’d never see it again if not for streaming.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

My interpretation would be people are lonely and wanting belongings.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Bookstore’s frontend reflects a city’s mental state. Here is one I took from Shenzhen: what stand out are two versions of Camus’s The Stranger, reminding me that everyone in Shenzhen is an immigrant.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Here is a post in Chinese on that: news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/202... Basically LLM training on those jokes are better performing than LLMs trained on materials in major platforms like Weibo because of the former’s originality. Also the BBS’s seasoned moderators are invited to attend AI conference.

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Interesting coincidence: the famous Baidu joke-themed BBS 弱智吧 called themselves 青龙山精神病院, after a mental hospital in Nanjing. Their jokes are being used to train AI now. While the most famous mental hospital in South China is 青山医院 in Hong Kong, so famous that even Guangxi people use 入青山 as slurs.

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Reposted by Hongshen Zhu

Glenn Luk @gluk.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Roughly half of 🇨🇳 household “savings” the last two decades was related to greenfield home construction. So to the extent high home ownership rates in 🇨🇳 society is based on cultural elements (and I would argue they do), I’d agree with Simon that culture plays a role here. @zhuhs.bsky.social

https://x.com/hongshenzhu/status/1695806037738053823

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Tianya today and Bluesky share a lot of things in terms of atmosphere. A more recent example is Clubhouse in early 2021, before it was banned in China.

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So Trump naturally becomes fixer of the ill and enemy of the enemy. Expect a painful U-turn for these KOLs to convince people “actually…Trump is also bad for America and the world.”

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Krish Raghav @krishraghav.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

My normie middle-aged aunties WeChat group is utterly impressed by Trump’s anti-immigrant/anti-DEI/anti-war/tax-reducing policy lists. It’s ironic bc typical Chinese social media have been recycling US right-wing materials (illegals, crimes, wars) to disparage Biden/US for 4 years.

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Reposted by Hongshen Zhu

Four-year anniversary of my Bullshit Jobs (in China) minicomic, which tragically only grows in relevance with every passing year:

A comic book describing an average day in the life of a Guinness World Records inspector in China

A comic book drawing showing a man paid to wait in queues at restaurants.

A comic book page about a man who redistributes shared bikes.

A comic book page about "machine babysitters" hired to ensure that expensive machines aren't constantly broken down

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Hongshen Zhu @zhuhs.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

I simply cannot believe this is purely coincidence.

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Bad omen for Chinese restaurant diversity in the U.S.

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Reposted by Hongshen Zhu

Consineo @consineo.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

1/7 foreign companies have been downsizing their foreigners headcount for years: HR localization was supposed to solve all the issues and have only benefits, from a better understanding of China’s market to reducing costs

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I recall the returnee has increased substantially since 2019. Over 1 million in 2021 alone. COVID left a lot voluntary vacancies that used to be foreigners so returnees fill them up and the equilibrium number declined. It’s also mainly a result of rapid rise of 留学生 pre-COVID of course.

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I wonder how much the return of foreign-educated Chinese impacts this shortfall of demand for foreign talents.

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I watched his video before! The key word is actually 干巴老头

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