iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Media complicit. Go read the headlines and look at the pciture they use for her. Aside from WaPo: everybody showing a sad, serious Ilhan.

Is Ai going to kill us or is it, as per usual, humans who will?

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Interesting choice of photo. As if she is worried about these fake charges. Might also want to mention that Trump weaponized the justice department to target people like Rep. Ilhan Omar.

Ilhan Omar photo showing her to be a strong woman

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I would love it, but very difficult to do with congress still filled with sniveling Rs. And he might have judged based on falsified info.

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"Trump regime’s weaponized justice department targets Rep. Ilhan Omar in politically motivated raid" Fixed it for you.

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"Trump regime’s weaponized justice department targets Rep. Ilhan Omar in politically motivated raid" Fixed it for you.

The fix: plan for the upper end of the range, and watch early signals like the energy imbalance directly. And yes, Brysse, Oreskes et al. is the classic: lean toward “least drama”, from norms of restraint and caution. They note over-prediction too, just less often.

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For global temperature, models did well (Hausfather 2020); some current ones even run hot. For impacts (Arctic sea ice, ice sheets, extremes, etc) “faster than expected” is definitely true. Hard-to-model processes get left out, consensus reports lean cautious, and the median gets the headlines.

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We agree it’s accelerating; we differ on how fast. Time will tell, and the energy imbalance will tell us first. Thanks for the good discussion! And Thanks for the push, it gave us two new charts. 🙏

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Ran both on ERA5: 10-yr linear gives 0.32/dec (starts at 2016 El Niño) → 2 °C ~2042; 20-yr curve gives 0.55 → ~2033. Short windows swing on a few El Niño years, which is why Foster & Rahmstorf adjust first. Acceleration plausible, 2033–37 credible; not settled yet.

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Fair, my summary mixed two rows. Redone: starting at 1.45–1.5 °C and 0.39–0.43/decade, no acceleration gives 2 °C ~2037–40; acceleration like since 1970 ~2036–39; a doubling again in 15 yrs ~2035–37. So mid-2030s. Where we differ: a full year >2 °C by 2029.

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Aug 1.72 °C is a record in ERA5 too, Sep 1.70. 2026 likely 2nd, 2027 likely a record. And yes, growth is growing: CO2 2.40→2.62, warming 0.19→0.39 °C/decade. Linear trends are a floor, not a forecast. If acceleration continues, the long-term level 1.5 °C by 2027–28 and 2 °C by 2038–40.

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If it's flattened, good luck with the spare parts.

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On the details: September was ~1.7 °C (ERA5 and Berkeley both), and 2026 is running ~0.1 °C below 2024 so far (2026 needs Oct–Dec at ~1.9 °C to beat 2024). A 2029 El Niño year near 2 °C would need a jump twice as big as 2023–24 gave.

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Thanks, fair point, and a good idea! We made a chart in the NYT style: warming was 0.19 °C/decade in 1970–2010 and 0.39 since 2010, twice as fast. Long-term level ≈1.45 °C; single months like September sit above that. earthindicators.org/s/air-c9.html

Warming is speeding up: every month since 1940, with the trend in three periods (°C above 1850–1900)

How warm the planet is right now compared with every year since 1940, and how far above pre-industrial. Copernicus ERA5 data.

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The data’s fine, but 1.59 °C was one El Niño month. The long-term level is about 1.4 °C, rising about 0.27 °C per decade. That’s alarming enough without the curve fit. earthindicators.org/s/air-c7.html

How warm is the world "now"? Three ways to measure it, 1950–2025 (°C above 1850–1900)

How warm the planet is right now compared with every year since 1940, and how far above pre-industrial. Copernicus ERA5 data.

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

earthindicators.org/nino.html

Impact of El Niño on Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes.

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Waiting till we get to 1981 level 😜

Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Fair point, thank you. We've added a methods page: for every chart, the exact dataset and DOI, what we calculate, the code, and checks against published series (our ERA5 global mean matches Copernicus's within 0.008 °C over 1,724 days). earthindicators.org/methods.html

How the numbers are made: data and methods

For every chart: the exact dataset, the files downloaded, what this site does to them, the code, and how the results are checked.

Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I built a small site that tracks Earth's vital signs in plain words, updated automatically: air and ocean temperature, ocean heat, sea ice, sea level, CO₂, methane, and the energy imbalance. Every number links to the source data. earthindicators.org

Earth Indicators: is the climate changing? The latest data

Earth is warming, and every major indicator shows it. Live data from NOAA, NASA, NSIDC and Copernicus, in plain words.

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I created this little tracker, for those who would find that helpful. yoyojolanda.github.io/nino34-track...

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

And remember: over 90% of all excess thermal energy trapped in Earth's atmosphere eventually ends up absorbed by the oceans regardless of where it is initially emitted.

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Prof Rick Stafford, a marine biologist at Bournemouth University, said: “An underwater datacentre is likely a good idea. While the cooling using seawater will result in some localised elevated temperatures, these will not be far reaching.”

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Thank God for that picture making it clear that Aelx Jones is not who I thought it was.

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I personally believe that uhhh, our education over here in the U.S. should help the U.S., uh, should help South Africa, it should help the Iraq and the Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future, for us.

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Reposted by Jolanda 🪬

Paul Blinkhorn @paulblinkhorn.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

You can't blame Ed Sheeran for caving in to American stadium owners I suppose. I mean, take these guys in the 60s, they refused to play to racially-segregated audiences in stadiums in the southern states of the USA and who remembers them now?

bbc.co.uk

The Beatles banned segregated audiences, contract shows

The Beatles refused to play to segregated audiences in the US, a contract for one of the group's concerts shows.

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Hooked on Jesus and high on dope...that man is filled to the gills with steroids and can still only barely move his head.

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

💃The only way is up, baby For you and me now The only way is up, baby For you and me now🕺

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Waze sends all your data to Israel: your personal information, location history, and driving habits. The terms of service explicitly state that the app is governed by the laws of the State of Israel, and legal disputes are routed to competent courts in the Tel Aviv district.😱

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

On waze: ABSOLUTELY GET RID OFF IT!!!!!

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Jolanda 🪬 @yoyojolanda.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

And 24 was El Niño, so buckle up for next year...