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xG Post Facto

@xgpostfacto.bsky.social
91 followers 31 following 488 posts

Showing all the ways your MLS team was lucky/unlucky based on xG simulations. We ❤️ variability. Created By: x.com/MKinnison314 Explainer: tinyurl.com/xGPostFactoExplainer xPoints Table: tinyurl.com/xGPostFacto

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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 14h
MD Post Facto Standings: Unluckiest By Percentile: 1. MTL - 4th - #CFMTL 2. SKC - 9th - #SportingKC 3. NYC - 10th - #NYCFC Unluckiest By Consequences: 1. CLB - 4 spots - #Crew96 2. MIN - 3 spots - #MNUFC 3. MTL - 3 spots - #CFMTL xPts table is updated: tinyurl.com/xGPostFacto #MLS
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 15h
What could've happened when #AllforCity played #VWFC ? #STLvVAN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 15h
What could've happened when #LAFC played #AustinFC ? #LAFCvATX ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 15h
What could've happened when #EveryoneN played #SportingKC ? #NSHvSKC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 15h
What could've happened when #CFMTL played #ATLUTD ? #MTLvATL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #SanDiegoFC played #HolditDown ? #SDvHOU ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #LAGalaxy played #RCTID ? #LAGvPOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #Rapids96 played #MNUFC ? #COLvMIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #RSL played #Quakes74 ? #RSLvSJE ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #DTID played #Sounders ? #FCDvSEA ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #CF97 played #DOOP ? #CHIvPHI ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #TFCLive played #OrlandoCity ? #TORvORL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #InterMiamiCF played #NYCFC ? #MIAvNYC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #Crew96 played #ForTheCrown ? #CLBvCLT ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #VamosUnited played #RBNY ? #DCUvNYRB ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19h
What could've happened when #AllforCincy played #NERevs ? #CINvNER ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
MD29 Post Facto Standings: Unluckiest By Percentile: 1. MTL - 4th - #CFMTL 2. SKC - 9th - #SportingKC 3. CLB - 12th - #Crew96 Unluckiest By Consequences: 1. MIN - 5 spots - #MNUFC 2. MTL - 3 spots - #CFMTL 3. NYC - 3 spots - #NYCFC xPts table is updated: tinyurl.com/xGPostFacto #MLS
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
What could've happened when #AllforCity played #LAGalaxy ? #STLvLAG ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #InterMiamiCF played #VamosUnited ? #MIAvDCU ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #LAFC played #VWFC ? #LAFCvVAN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #Rapids96 played #Quakes74 ? #COLvSJE ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #SportingKC played #RCTID ? #SKCvPOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #MNUFC played #HolditDown ? #MINvHOU ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #AustinFC played #EveryoneN ? #ATXvNSH ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #RBNY played #SanDiegoFC ? #NYRBvSD ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #OrlandoCity played #Crew96 ? #ORLvCLB ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #ForTheCrown played #DTID ? #CLTvFCD ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #NERevs played #Sounders ? #NERvSEA ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #ATLUTD played #AllforCincy ? #ATLvCIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
What could've happened when #DOOP played #RSL ? #PHIvRSL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
What could've happened when #CF97 played #NYCFC ? #CHIvNYC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
What could've happened when #TFCLive played #CFMTL ? #TORvMTL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
What could've happened when #CF97 played #VWFC ? #CHIvVAN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Bottom 5 when trailing: 30. SKC - #SportingKC 29. HOU - #HolditDown 28. TOR - #TFCLive 27. MTL - #CFMTL 26. RSL - #RSL Bottom 5 when leading: 30. MTL - #CFMTL 29. SKC - #SportingKC 28. TOR - #TFCLive 27. ATX - #AustinFC 26. CIN - #AllforCincy
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
New Comeback & Leading Rankings Added: Top 5 when trailing: 1. VAN - #VWFC 2. PHI - #DOOP 3. STL - #AllforCity 4. MIA - #InterMiamiCF 5. LAG - #LAGalaxy Top 5 when leading: 1. VAN - #VWFC 2. PHI - #DOOP 3. LAFC - #LAFC 4. COL - #Rapids96 5. NSH - #EveryoneN tinyurl.com/xGPostFacto #MLS
tinyurl.com
xG Post Facto - Expected Points Table
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #Sounders played #SportingKC ? #SEAvSKC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #RBNY played #AllforCity ? #NYRBvSTL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #Crew96 played #InterMiamiCF ? #CLBvMIA ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #VWFC played #VamosUnited ? #VANvDCU ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #LAGalaxy played #Rapids96 ? #LAGvCOL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #Quakes74 played #RCTID ? #SJEvPOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #RSL played #NERevs ? #RSLvNER ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #Sounders played #MNUFC ? #SEAvMIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #AustinFC played #SanDiegoFC ? #ATXvSD ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #DTID played #LAFC ? #FCDvLAFC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #HolditDown played #SportingKC ? #HOUvSKC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #EveryoneN played #TFCLive ? #NSHvTOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #CFMTL played #AllforCincy ? #MTLvCIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #DOOP played #OrlandoCity ? #PHIvORL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What could've happened when #ForTheCrown played #CF97 ? #CLTvCHI ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of lead and final score probabilities based on xG and PSxGAn analysis of each gamestate and how the result could have changed if the next event had gone differentlyBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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