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xG Post Facto

@xgpostfacto.bsky.social
88 followers 32 following 437 posts

Showing all the ways your MLS team was lucky/unlucky based on xG simulations. We ❤️ variability. Created By: x.com/MKinnison314 Explainer: tinyurl.com/xGPostFactoExplainer xPoints Table: tinyurl.com/xGPostFacto

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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
What could've happened when #Sounders played #SportingKC ? #SEAvSKC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
What could've happened when #RBNY played #AllforCity ? #NYRBvSTL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
MD28 Post Facto Standings: Unluckiest By Percentile: 1. MTL - 5th - #CFMTL 2. MIN - 10th - #MNUFC 3. SKC - 17th - #SportingKC Unluckiest By Consequences: 1. MIN -6 spots - #MNUFC 2. MTL - 4 spots - #CFMTL 3. NYC - 3 spots - #NYCFC xPts table is updated: tinyurl.com/xGPostFacto #MLS
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Automation should be set up for the new graphics next weekend. In the meantime, here's some of the more interesting games from last weekend #Crew96 with the late winner #LAGalaxy with an (undeserved) comeback #VWFC and #VamosUnited trading wild goals #AustinFC beating the <1% odds to draw #MLS
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
What could've happened when #Crew96 played #InterMiamiCF ? #CLBvMIA ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #LAGalaxy played #Rapids96 ? #LAGvCOL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #VWFC played #VamosUnited ? #VANvDCU ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #Quakes74 played #RCTID ? #SJEvPOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #RSL played #NERevs ? #RSLvNER ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #HolditDown played #SportingKC ? #HOUvSKC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #DTID played #LAFC ? #FCDvLAFC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #Sounders played #MNUFC ? #SEAvMIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #AustinFC played #SanDiegoFC ? #ATXvSD ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #EveryoneN played #TFCLive ? #NSHvTOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #ForTheCrown played #CF97 ? #CLTvCHI ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #DOOP played #OrlandoCity ? #PHIvORL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #CFMTL played #AllforCincy ? #MTLvCIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What could've happened when #ATLUTD played #NYCFC ? #ATLvNYC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
What could've happened when #Sounders played #RSL ? #SEAvRSL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What could've happened when #InterMiamiCF played #SanDiegoFC ? #MIAvSD ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What could've happened when #NERevs played #OrlandoCity ? #NERvORL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #Rapids96 played #Sounders ? #COLvSEA ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #RCTID played #ATLUTD ? #PORvATL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #RSL played #VWFC ? #RSLvVAN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #EveryoneN played #CF97 ? #NSHvCHI ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #MNUFC played #LAGalaxy ? #MINvLAG ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #AllforCity played #TFCLive ? #STLvTOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
010
xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #HolditDown played #AllforCincy ? #HOUvCIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #SportingKC played #DOOP ? #SKCvPHI ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
010
xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #DTID played #AustinFC ? #FCDvATX ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #VamosUnited played #ForTheCrown ? #DCUvCLT ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #Quakes74 played #LAFC ? #SJEvLAFC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
What could've happened when #CFMTL played #Crew96 ? #MTLvCLB ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
What could've happened when #NYCFC played #RBNY ? #NYCvNYRB ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Another tease of the new gamestate graphics coming soon. Here are the top 10 teams in #MLS by predicted performance against a token opponent The model is designed to isolate the effect of gamestate on performance, but it makes traditional predictions and ratings too
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
MD26 Post Facto Standings: Unluckiest By Percentile: 1. MTL - 3rd - #CFMTL 2. VAN - 8th - #VWFC 3. CLB - 12th - #Crew96 Unluckiest By Consequences: 1. MIN - 5 spots - #MNUFC 2. MTL - 4 spots - #CFMTL 3. LAFC - 3 spots - #LAFC xPts table is updated: tinyurl.com/xGPostFacto #MLS
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
What could've happened when #SanDiegoFC played #DOOP ? #SDvPHI ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
What could've happened when #VWFC played #AustinFC ? #VANvATX ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
What could've happened when #CF97 played #NERevs ? #CHIvNER ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #Quakes74 played #HolditDown ? #SJEvHOU ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #LAGalaxy played #Sounders ? #LAGvSEA ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
000
xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #RSL played #NYCFC ? #RSLvNYC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
000
xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #Rapids96 played #CFMTL ? #COLvMTL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #AllforCity played #MNUFC ? #STLvMIN ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #SportingKC played #LAFC ? #SKCvLAFC ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
010
xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #DTID played #RCTID ? #FCDvPOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #InterMiamiCF played #EveryoneN ? #MIAvNSH ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #VamosUnited played #ATLUTD ? #DCUvATL ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #OrlandoCity played #TFCLive ? #ORLvTOR ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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xG Post Facto @xgpostfacto.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What could've happened when #Crew96 played #RBNY ? #CLBvNYRB ~ #MLS
Post facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on xGsPost facto plot of win and goal probabilities based on PSxGsBreakdown of how points were earned/lost
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