iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 26/07/2026

I can appreciate that knives might be out for DNC Chair Ken Martin. It comes with the territory. But, I swear, an article like this deserves more than one sentence devoted to the comparative look back to other past parties out of the White House. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/u...

New financial reports released this week revealed the depth of the D.N.C.’s financial hole. The party is $2 million in debt, while the Republican National Committee has $128.5 million in cash on hand. The party that holds the White House almost always raises more money into its party coffers, but this year’s chasm is extraordinarily large.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 25/07/2026

So with that in mind, let's now talk about Martin's notion that AOC would downplay a FITN SC primary and build firewalls elsewhere in the early window. This is a good one. 6/

$I doubt any formidable Democrat would dare skip South Carolina entirely — the symbolism of rejecting a state where half the primary voters are Black makes that a non-starter. Yet it’s certainly possible the new, six-state early window followed immediately by Super Tuesday will tempt more progressive candidates to downplay the state. Why would Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), for example, spend significant time and money in South Carolina when she can potentially create a firewall in Nevada, New Mexico and Michigan, all states now in the early-vote window? AOC could spend (just) enough time in South Carolina and count on (just) enough of an establishment-lane fracture to post a respectable vote there and not have to worry if that means she comes in fourth. In years past that would be fatal to a campaign — now it could garner the coveted “better-than-expected.”$

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 25/07/2026

Here's another one (a mistake he makes *every* cycle): First of all, and to repeat for the 5th straight cycle now, Republicans allocate delegates proportionally too. States before March 15 are required to. And often have qualifying thresholds lower than the Democrats. ...in NH, for example. 2/

But keep in mind that Democratic primaries, unlike their GOP counterparts, distribute delegates proportionally. They’re not designed for quick, winner-take-all knockouts. So, yes, South Carolina can and likely will cull a handful of poor-performing and financially strapped candidates. Yet many Democratic hopefuls will stay in the race, hoping that the quick, week-by-week succession of races gives them a chance to climb back into the competition.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 25/07/2026

Martin often undermines not unreasonable points with factual inaccuracies about the nomination process. Here's one: The DNC didn't do that. Democratic-controlled state governments across the South, acting within DNC rules for 1988, moved their contests to the earliest spot behind IA/NH. 1/

Nearly 40 years ago, the DNC unwittingly elevated Jesse Jackson by frontloading its schedule with Southern states. At the time, committee members hoped the shift would help a moderate white candidate, who they thought could more easily win a general election. Instead, Southern Black voters rallied to Jackson’s history-making candidacy. On Friday, the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee again sought to push its nomination fight to the South.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 23/07/2026

Donna Brazile is correct here about the DNC waiting to finalize its early calendar lineup for 2028. www.axios.com/2026/07/23/d...

Committee member Donna Brazile, who's long advocated for making sure southern states aren't overlooked in the primary process, told Axios her goal "is to advocate that the Rules & Bylaws Committee delay the final vote past Nov. 3, and use the midterm results as an explicit input into the final regional picks."

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 11/06/2026

Well, I had to go check. ...just to be sure. But John Connally spent $44m in 2026 dollars for that one delegate he received in the 1980 Republican presidential nomination race.

Between his run for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States and his 2026 run for California governor, Tom Steyer will have spent $557,781,638 for 0 delegates and a 3rd-place primary finish, respectively.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 04/06/2026

This was barely 24 hours ago. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders asked Platner if any additional allegations would emerge against the embattled Democratic candidate, according to people familiar with the discussion. Platner said there weren’t any.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 28/05/2026

The main questions are still the same as they were after the January meeting in San Juan. www.fhqplus.com/i/186772124/... 27/

Will New Hampshire have the first sanctioned primary or not? Alternatively, will the DNC grant an early window waiver to the Democratic Party and the state-run primary in the Granite state?
What does the RBC do with South Carolina? Dump the Palmetto state primary altogether (too red) or incorporate it either alongside another, albeit bluer not necessarily purple, option (Virginia) in an effort to “balance” the South’s representation on the calendar, or as a traditional and easy-to-move piece on the early calendar?
Is there a fifth early state? [Probably] And which of the twelve — probably more like eight, really — gets the nod?

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 13/05/2026

This really shouldn't be normalized. Vance may be the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, but I object to the use of "presumptive nominee" at this point. ...*in the invisible primary!* www.wired.com/story/trump-...

The president has actually done several snap polls in recent weeks, a source familiar with the matter tells WIRED. The results have been notable, they say: When Trump polled donors at Mar-a-Lago, they favored Rubio. But when Trump recently polled a group of law enforcement officers that the White House thinks are perhaps more representative of regular voters, they favored Vance.
Vance remains the presumptive nominee, White House sources tell me, but he has not been taking anything for granted. In fact, the vice president's top advisers started the week huddled at a retreat to discuss political strategy, the sources said.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 05/08/2025

Here's the list minus the at-large members who were just elected. I haven't looked for a list with the additional members yet. Don't know if they are public. But even that process changed this time around: www.fhqplus.com/p/the-2028-d...

Chair Ken Martin's Standing Committee Appointments
Rusty Hicks - CA
Michael Kapp - CA
April Verrett - CA
Shad Murib - CO
Cristobal Alex - DC
Donna Brazile - DC
Maria Cardona - DC
Frank Leone - DC
Kenny Thompson - DC
Lisa Hernandez - IL
Colmon Elridge - KY
Rules and Bylaws Committee
Co-Chair James Roosevelt, Jr. - MA
Co-Chair Minyon Moore - DC
Barry Goodman - MI
Russ Carnahan - MO
Jane Kleeb - NE
Raymond Buckley - NH
Joanne Dowdell - NH
Artie Blanco - NV
Danielle Monroe-Moreno - NV
Stuart Appelbaum - NY
David Huynh - NY
Steph Wheaton - NY
Alicia Andrews - OK
Roxanne Brown - PA
Luis Dávila Pernas - PR
Carol Fowler - SC
Christale Spain - SC
Elaine Kamarck - VA
Susan Swecker - VA
Shasti Conrad - WA
David McDonald - WA
Jason Rae - WI

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 15/07/2025

May as well have some fun with this non-Harris version of the 2028 Democratic presidential trial heat in this way-too-early survey from Echelon. Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But... www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...

Survey results from an Echelon Insights poll asking about the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race (not including former Vice President Kamala Harris). [Fielded from July 10-14, 2025]

[Q2028DemPrimary - COMBINED NON-HARRIS]
(n=505)
Gavin Newsom 12%
Pete Buttigieg 12%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Cory Booker 8%
Tim Walz 7%
Josh Shapiro 5%
Mark Cuban 4%
Gretchen Whitmer 3%
J.B. Pritzker 3%
John Fetterman 2%
Wes Moore 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Jasmine Crockett 2%
Chris Murphy 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Jared Polis *%
Ruben Gallego *%
Someone else (Please specify) 3%
Unsure

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 14/05/2025

Sure, one has to scroll down to the fifth paragraph, but I appreciated Politico adding this quote to their story about Buttigieg's stop in Iowa. A trip to the Hawkeye state is not without consequence, but Iowa ain't the first state anymore. www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

"Iowa has lost the favored place that it had on the Democratic National Committee’s nominating calendar when Buttigieg barnstormed the state in 2020. A senior adviser granted anonymity to frankly assess Buttigieg’s considerations to attend the town hall said that ”unless something drastically changes at the DNC, Iowa does not have presidential implications and that’s not what this is about. This is about going everywhere to talk to voters from all walks of life — in this case veterans in Cedar Rapids.” Buttigieg, a former intelligence officer in the Navy Reserves, served in Afghanistan."

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 18/03/2025

Harris may or may not run in 2028. I don't know that I'd bet on that either way. However, I would be inclined to place a wager on there being a thermostatic response to the Trump administration. I don't know the extent of it, but I'm fairly confident in the direction. abcnews.go.com/Politics/lon...

"I think she's done at the top of the ticket." said one donor, who like several other donors, spoke with ABC News on the condition of anonymity because they are still actively involved in Democratic party fundraising. He added, "I think the country will not have moved in a progressive direction during that time, it will have become more conservative."

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 03/02/2025

Good one from @smotus.bsky.social this morning. Nodded along especially hard at this bit. smotus.substack.com/p/why-democr...

But to say that the problem was that Kamala Harris and Democrats didn’t focus enough on pocketbook issues is simply wrong. Harris proposed expanding the child care tax credit, mortgage assistance for homebuyers, a ban on price gouging, and more. She emphasized her middle class upbringing throughout the convention. It was definitely a key issue. But she was attached to the party that was getting the blame for the economic situation, and no amount of messaging or campaign promises could change that.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 25/11/2024

It isn't as pronounced, but the shift is still there from 2020 to 2024.

Map showing the shift toward Democrats or toward the Republicans in the western United States from 2020 to 2024.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 19/11/2024

They held Warren's comments until almost the very end of the piece. ...and they were fairly boilerplate for her.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime progressive economic voice, defended her record and lodestar without directly responding to the other ideas floating through the party.
“I spent my entire life fighting to unrig a system that tilts against working families,” Warren said. “I did that long before I came to Washington, and I do it now in Washington with the tools available to me. I think that is the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, and that at its root is the idea that every person deserves opportunity and to be treated with dignity.”

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 16/11/2024

Lots of time to discuss all of this, but the only "current plan" there is is that the DNC will reexamine the early states every cycle. The states listed are the ones from the "2024 plan," not the "current plan." There is no current plan. The DNC has not written one for 2028 yet. 2/

Under the current plan, South Carolina went first, then Nevada, Georgia and Michigan. It was the first time in decades that the primary was revamped to exclude the first-in-the-nation caucuses in Iowa and the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire. The idea was to give an opportunity to more diverse populations — like Black voters in South Carolina and Latino voters in Nevada — to have an early say in the process.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 11/10/2024

Hesitate to call the order of states in these WSJ polls unusual. The battlegrounds are all close and tightly clustered. But under this alignment, Harris winning AZ/MI/GA gets her to 268. NC would become the tipping point. Trump would need NC to get to exactly 270. www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 09/09/2024

I don't know. The polls in four of those five cycles may not have shown particularly close races at the end but they ended up that way. Seems to me that is a cautionary tale about assuming the polls will be right on the nose come November. However... www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/u...

In today’s polarized era, it’s hard to be surprised by polls showing a close race. But the polls today aren’t just close. In the era of modern polling, there’s never been an election when the final polls showed the race as close as it is today — not in 2000, 2004 or 2012, let alone 2016 or 2020.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 08/09/2024

2 days until the ABC presidential debate 12 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 58 days until the presidential election www.fhqplus.com/p/the-fhq-el...

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.8%, Trump - 44.6%, Other - 5.0%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.0]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 05/09/2024

5 days until the ABC presidential debate 15 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 61 days until the presidential election

2024 Electoral College Map
(a projection based on a graduated weighted average of state polls)
Harris: 276 EVs (including Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin)
Trump: 262 EVs (including Arizona, Georgia & North Carolina)

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 04/09/2024

6 days until the ABC presidential debate 16 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 62 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 03/09/2024

7 days until the ABC presidential debate 17 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 63 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.5%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.2]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 02/09/2024

Indeed. Harris has gained a little each day since I started logging the national polls. Trump has oscillated some but in a very small range. Below's the August trend line. No, the picture is not as dynamic as what one will see elsewhere, but the trend is both noticeable and persistent.

Line graph showing Harris's increasing lead over Trump in the national polls during August.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 02/09/2024

8 days until the ABC presidential debate 18 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 64 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.5%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.2]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 01/09/2024

9 days until the ABC presidential debate 19 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 65 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 31/08/2024

10 days until the ABC presidential debate 20 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 66 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 30/08/2024

11 days until the ABC presidential debate 21 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 67 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.4%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.5%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.1] | Two-way: Harris - 48.6%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.2%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +1.9]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 29/08/2024

12 days until the ABC presidential debate 22 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 68 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.3%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.6%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.0] | Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.6%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +1.8]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 28/08/2024

13 days until the ABC presidential debate 23 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 69 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.3%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.6%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.7% [Harris: +1.7]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 27/08/2024

14 days until the ABC presidential debate 24 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 70 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.2%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.7%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.6% [Harris: +1.7]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 26/08/2024

15 days until the ABC presidential debate 21 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania) 71 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 25/08/2024

16 days until the ABC presidential debate 22 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania) 72 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 46.033%, Trump - 44.209%, Kennedy - 4.997%. Other - 4.761% [Harris: +1.825] Two-way: Harris - 48.372%, Trump - 46.765%, Other - 4.863% [Harris: +1.606]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 24/08/2024

17 days until the ABC presidential debate 23 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania) 73 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 46.020%, Trump - 44.241%, Kennedy - 5.102%. Other - 4.638% [Harris: +1.778] Two-way: Harris - 48.402%, Trump - 46.868%, Other - 4.731% [Harris: +1.534]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 23/08/2024

Alabama Democrats have issued a "nothing to see here."

It has always been planned to turn it in today and that plan was approved of by both the Harris for President Campaign and the DNC. VP Harris and Governor Walz will be on the Alabama ballot.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 23/08/2024

But let's be clear-eyed about what the Democratic Party in Alabama has to submit to the AL SoS today. Signatures of the presiding officer and the secretary of the (national) convention and one from the state party chair in AL.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 23/08/2024

Okay. I'm deleting this post. I am guilty of being too trusting of one part of a document posted on the AL Secretary of State's webpage. Deadline is today. In May the legislature pushed the deadline back eight days to accommodate the Democrats' "late" convention. My apologies.

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 23/08/2024

18 days until the ABC presidential debate 24 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania) 74 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.791%, Trump - 44.148%, Kennedy - 5.258%. Other - 4.802% [Harris: +1.643] Two-way: Harris - 48.248%, Trump - 46.903%, Other - 4.849% [Harris: +1.344]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 22/08/2024

TODAY is the final day of the Democratic National Convention 19 days until the ABC presidential debate 75 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.665%, Trump - 44.270%, Kennedy - 5.276%. Other - 4.789% [Harris: +1.395] Two-way: Harris - 48.169%, Trump - 46.990%, Other - 4.952% [Harris: +1.178]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 21/08/2024

TODAY is day three of the Democratic National Convention 20 days until the ABC presidential debate 76 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.675%, Trump - 44.274%, Kennedy - 5.195%. Other - 4.856% [Harris: +1.401] Two-way: Harris - 48.149%, Trump - 46.899%, Other - 4.952% [Harris: +1.251]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 20/08/2024

TODAY is day two of the Democratic National Convention 21 days until the ABC presidential debate 77 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.670%, Trump - 44.296%, Kennedy - 5.126%. Other - 4.908% [Harris: +1.374] Two-way: Harris - 48.149%, Trump - 46.899%, Other - 4.952% [Harris: +1.251]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 19/08/2024

TODAY the Democratic National Convention gavels in 22 days until the ABC presidential debate 78 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.515%, Trump - 44.287%, Kennedy - 5.309%. Other - 4.889% [Harris: +1.229] Two-way: Harris - 48.109%, Trump - 47.022%, Other - 4.870% [Harris: +1.087]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 18/08/2024

TOMORROW the Democratic National Convention gavels in 23 days until the ABC presidential debate 79 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.452%, Trump - 44.237%, Kennedy - 5.394%. Other - 4.917% [Harris: +1.216] Two-way: Harris - 47.979%, Trump - 46.995%, Other - 5.026% [Harris: +0.984]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 17/08/2024

2 days until the Democratic National Convention 24 days until the ABC presidential debate 80 days until the presidential election

Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.424%, Trump - 44.241%, Kennedy - 5.404%. Other - 4.931% [Harris: +1.183] Two-way: Harris - 47.951%, Trump - 47.049%, Other - 5.000% [Harris: +0.903]

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 16/08/2024

3 days until the Democratic National Convention 25 days until the ABC presidential debate 81 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 15/08/2024

4 days until the Democratic National Convention 26 days until the ABC presidential debate 82 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 14/08/2024

5 days until the Democratic National Convention 27 days until the ABC presidential debate 83 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 13/08/2024

6 days until the Democratic National Convention 28 days until the ABC presidential debate 84 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 12/08/2024

7 days until the Democratic National Convention 29 days until the ABC presidential debate 85 days until the presidential election

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Josh Putnam @www.fhqplus.com · 11/08/2024

8 days until the Democratic National Convention 30 days until the ABC presidential debate 86 days until the presidential election

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