iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 29/09/2026

I mean I would certainly hope a bunch of experienced traders could beat NBM. Also, if I had a trading company is vigorously remind my Mets that their forecasts are the company’s intellectual property.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 27/09/2026

And law school didn’t cure you of the desire to go to school?

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 27/09/2026

This is the most infuriating part of data center and water discourse. Alfalfa exports use way more water than data centers, and no one cares.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 25/09/2026

I’ve got a few more pictures of the sedimentary structures

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 25/09/2026

Unfortunately, there weren’t any FF.W’s posted. Which is surprising considering how MRMS QPE guidance was showing intense precipitation rates.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 25/09/2026

Had some flash flooding last night in Grants. The ripple marks are in sediment deposited on the road above a culvert. We had 1+ inches of rain in less than an hour on top of the mesa. Gravity took charge after that. #nmwx

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 25/09/2026

So, my games are just a little old. I think the median release date is the 1990’s. my9games.com/en/s/56c7bb0...

3x3 grid of games with a median release date in the 1990’s.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 23/09/2026

Level II/III data is flowing into the Amazon S3 bucket.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 21/09/2026

That is some lousy ad targeting.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 21/09/2026

For Maria, we had buttoned up for the season for Irma, I think, but as THE meteorologist for Loon, I was providing support on storm surge and wind so we could have some sort of feel for what our losses would be.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 21/09/2026

That was the culmination of a brutal summer forecasting TC’s for Loon, we had a launch site on the eastern shore of PR at former NAS Roosevelt Roads, and I had to forecast the likelihood of tropical storm force winds 72 hours out since that was how long it took to button up the site.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 20/09/2026

Huh, I just realized that I’m in NM-2, one of the most closely contested house races, and I haven’t gotten a single mailer yet.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 18/09/2026

Completely befuddled. Especially when I answer the question, “Well, how did you get here?” Letting the days go by…

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 18/09/2026

Is this another Cliff Kilogram legend from the list that shall not be named?

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 18/09/2026

In ye olden days this would be a gargantuan pair of county warnings including both Grants and Rio Rancho. Kids these days have no idea.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 17/09/2026

Oh, I have 3d views in my app, I’m just bad at advertising it.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 17/09/2026

This is a really good paper and fits the strengths of the coding LLMs (independent oracles keep the agents in line). Whats going to be hilarious is when Reviewer 2 uses your toolchain to prove you’re wrong.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 17/09/2026

With the traditional colormap you can see the BWER, the greyscale isn’t that informative.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 14/09/2026

What it looked like from my house

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 14/09/2026

This linear storm in Grants is LOUD: malpais.app#v=3&s=KABX&m... #nmwx

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 12/09/2026

Just to add on to this, Malpais.app started because I wanted to see if using the ICDs, could Claude write a L2 parser. And now it’s my daily driver for keeping track of my local weather.

malpais.app

Malpais

Real-time NEXRAD radar viewer — Level 2 and Level 3 data, surface observations, warnings, and severe weather overlays.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 06/09/2026

A brief word about naming conventions for Malpais.app. Though bodies of water are not currently labeled, the canonical names include the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Ontario. And my state is New Mexico. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

malpais.app

Malpais

Real-time NEXRAD radar viewer — Level 2 and Level 3 data, surface observations, warnings, and severe weather overlays.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 01/09/2026

Well, that’s a catastrophically bad idea. Full stop. It’s all fun and games until us-east-1 has one of its hiccups.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 01/09/2026

I think the 20 days of comments is a bit short, and the transition is going to bite some legacy users HARD, but CAP is an upgrade moving forward.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 01/09/2026

20 days for comments on such a big switch makes me agree with you that the decision has already been made. I’m already using the CAP endpoint for my app, but I can just feel how much of a mess the transition will be.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 18/08/2026

Ooh, I’m retired now, so I can say that this was not great for the geosciences either. I didn’t understand how switching from a quantified metric with known issues to unquantifiable metrics that could be gamed would be an improvement.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 17/08/2026

This little pipsqueak made the first thunder of the day in Grants. #nmwx

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 16/08/2026

I've heard reports of snow on Mauna Kea as #Lala passes through. This cross section of reflectivity from PHKM on the north side suggests that's it's snowing HARD. We now have terrain in malpais.app thanks to @mapterhorn.com malpais.app#v=3&s=PHKM&m...

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 16/08/2026

RHI of the eyewall of TS #Lala as it's passing south of the Big Island of Hawaii. #wx #hiwx malpais.app#v=3&s=PHWA&m...

PPI and RHI of TS Lala as it passes south of the Big Island. The eyewall isn't that impressive in reflectivity, but that's expected as Lala has been moving over cooler water.

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Reposted by Rob Carver

Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

someone is gonna need to write this book

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 14/08/2026

We need to be able to talk about the LLMs can and cannot do well without provoking a Two Minute Hate. Sticking our collective heads in the sand and wishing for it to Just Go Away is about the most counterproductive act possible.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 14/08/2026

This thread is an exemplar of the failure modes of Bluesky. A historian posts a history paper created by Fable 5 as a benchmark of the current state of the art. The result: General AI rage, users raging without reading the thread or linked material, and overall just lack of good faith engagement.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 14/08/2026

@stormscale.io Since there's a live Flash Flood Emergency, I thought I'd share how my app handles the IBW tags. Basically, Emergencies float to the top of the warning list and the borders are very thick. I'm open to suggestions/comments since I'm not a UX guru. malpais.app#v=3&s=KJKL&m...

Screenshot of malpais.app showing active Flash Flood Emergency

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 12/08/2026

The problem with LinkedIn is sifting through all the AI self-promotion (look, another model trained on ERA5. Woo. Woo.) or watching the VC funding flow to places that aren’t going to work out that well.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 12/08/2026

I’m not on X, but I don’t know where the good wx engagement is (LinkedIn? Not so much.)

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 05/08/2026

I’ve always been skeptical that radar driven AI would ever show much skill for initiation. Initiation depends on what is essentially unobserved and the space of possible outcomes isn’t bounded at all.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 05/08/2026

Is this for traditional NWP models or for their AI cousins?

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 02/08/2026

I've added the TIGER road shapefile to malpais.app to help people track the #Spokane wildland fire. #wa #wawildfire #wawx malpais.app#v=3&s=KOTX&m...

Radar reflectivity of KOTX overlaid on Spokane County roads showing the fire/smoke plume relative to Spokane.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 30/07/2026

I'm curious, do you know what the sensors are for those stations with the bad reports? Is that a common factor?

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 30/07/2026

Recently, I added support for select MRMS products so I could understand the flash flood risk. Here's the recent QPE/FFG ratio for the Cibola county storm, where the ratio's >1, the radar estimated precip exceeds the estimated threshold for flash flooding. malpais.app#v=3&m=l2&p=R... #nmwx

QPE/FFG ratio for the Cibola county storm on July 29. It shows that estimated precip is approaching or exceeding the threshold for flash flooding.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 30/07/2026

And here’s a picture of a IC flash from this storm

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 30/07/2026

The gust front from this storm is more prominent than what we usually see in storms out here. #nmwx malpais.app#v=3&s=KABX&m...

Gust front visible in radar reflectivity.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 30/07/2026

I've been watching this storm from the kitchen window for the past hour or so, it's been a great lightning producer. On the 3D radar view from malpais.app, you can clearly see how multiple updrafts are feeding the same stratiform layer. Really neat. #nmwx

3D radar view of the storm in eastern Cibola County, NM on July 29, 7PM MDT. You can see the multiple cores feeding into the same stratiform layer.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 27/07/2026

One of the papers I was working on back in my Google days is finally out: High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds | Science Advances www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

science.org

High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds

High-resolution simulations reveal that direct carbon dioxide effects nonlinearly amplify positive low-cloud feedbacks.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 25/07/2026

In terms of tragicomedy: the uranium mines and mills cleanup coexisting with new uranium plays. Someone is going to try to split the difference and crash out with the Dem electorate. Stupid food issue: calling it chili with an i (That'll make the voters grumpy)

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 25/07/2026

That could be a legacy of how the state has been exoticized for tourism purposes. From a poli sci perspective, I don’t think we’re all that different from the other 49 states.

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 24/07/2026

Permalink to scan here: malpais.app#v=3&s=KABX&m...

3D view of reflectivity of a thunderstorm near Grants, NM

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 24/07/2026

We have a gorgeous monsoon thunderstorm SW of Grants right now. It looks great in the 3D radar visualization I'm working on for malpais.app

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Rob Carver @wundersooner.com · 22/07/2026

For my peeps still in academia, only 3 mentions of weather in the report and ZERO climate mentions.

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