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Will Weaver ⛈️

@willweatherrva.bsky.social
627 followers 456 following 1.8K posts

#RVA | #LetsGoVCU | 💍 My Kari Cupcake | #ActuallyAutistic | He/him | Weather enthusiast, not a meteorologist | Account dedicated to weather, main is @WillWeaverRVA.bsky.social

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 7h
#Nolo 's renaissance has been interesting to watch. About 24 hours ago, it was mostly devoid of convection due to shear and dry air. Now that the environment is more favorable, convection has rebounded and an eye is clearing out. Back up to 65 kts and it might be stronger.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 12h
Typhoon #Choi-wan #26W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1200 UTC 2 October 2026: Choi-wan becomes a typhoon as it continues moving away from Tinian and Saipan. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-ch...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Typhoon Choiwan (26W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1200 UTC 2 October 2026
Choi-wan becomes a typhoon as it continues moving away from Tinian and Saipan.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Tropical Storm #26W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2: 1200 UTC 30 September 2026: Tropical storm watches issued for #Tinian and #Saipan in the CNMI. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm 26W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2: 1200 UTC 30 September 2026
Tropical storm watches issued for Tinian and Saipan in the CNMI.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Surigae #25W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17: 1200 UTC 30 September 2026: Surigae clinging to life as a tropical cyclone as it passes just south of the Izu Islands. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17: 1200 UTC 30 September 2026
Surigae clinging to life as a tropical cyclone as it passes just south of the Izu Islands.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Other than #93W, it looks like the WPAC is about to enter a bit of a lull. #Surigae (#25W) is weakening as it moves northeastward south of Japan. Hurricane #Nolo (#15E) could enter the basin early next week and become a #typhoon (it would retain its name). No other disturbances.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I'm a bit surprised that Invest #93W hasn't reached warning criteria yet. It seems to have a well-defined circulation with some intense convection and rudimentary banding features. Most of the models are bullish on intensification but it doesn't appear to be a land threat.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Surigae #25W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15: 1200 UTC 29 September 2026: Surigae continues to lose organization. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15: 1200 UTC 29 September 2026
Surigae continues to lose organization.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Typhoon #Surigae #25W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13: 1200 UTC 28 September 2026: Surigae weakening rapidly as it continues moving away from #Okinawa. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-su...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Typhoon Surigae (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13: 1200 UTC 28 September 2026
Surigae weakening rapidly as it continues moving away from Okinawa.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Before I post my next advisory on #Surigae (#25W), it may have peaked at Cat 5 intensity. JTWC listed it at 130 kts at 18Z, but there was a RCM-3 SAR pass from 21Z that indicated 135 kt winds with the structure already unraveling. Maybe 140-145 kt peak at 12-18Z? @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Typhoon #Surigae ( #25W ) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11: 1200 UTC 27 September 2026: Surigae rapidly intensifies into a powerful Category 4 typhoon as it passes east of #Okinawa. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-su...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Typhoon Surigae (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11: 1200 UTC 27 September 2026
Surigae rapidly intensifies into a powerful Category 4 typhoon as it passes east of Okinawa.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Typhoon #Surigae ( #25W / #QueeniePH ) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 0000 UTC 27 September 2026: Surigae rapidly intensifying as it crawls northeastward. Expected to produce tropical storm force on #Okinawa this evening and Monday morning. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-su...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Typhoon Surigae (25W/Queenie) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 0000 UTC 27 September 2026
Surigae rapidly intensifying as it crawls northeastward. Expected to produce tropical storm force on Okinawa this evening and Monday morning.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
And now your latest #RVA weather report... #vawx
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The nor'easter off the mid-Atlantic coast has a fairly well defined circulation center. Despite being over warm SSTs, it is extratropical and will likely remain so as it meanders for a few days. Still, heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf are likely at the coast. #vawx
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Recon is taking off and now en route to #Polo. It'll be very, VERY interesting to see what they find. Polo is about to move over the warmest waters it will ever encounter and shear is likely to remain low for now. ETA is probably around 2.5 to 3 hours.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Surigae ( #25W / #QueeniePH ) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 25 September 2026: Surigae turning toward the north and expected to pass just southeast of #Okinawa on Monday. The forecast is quite iffy. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W/Queenie) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 25 September 2026
Surigae turning toward the north and expected to pass just southeast of Okinawa on Monday. The forecast is quite iffy.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
We have a pair of rapidly intensifying #hurricanes in the E Pacific - #Polo (#17E) has attained Cat 5 status for the 3rd time with winds of 155 kts, while #Odalys (#16E) has become a Cat 4 with winds of 115 kts. Polo has some time to strengthen even more before shear increases.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
#Polo is a weird, weird looking storm. Certainly one of the strangest super typhoon-equivalent storms I've ever seen. Recon is on its way and I'm REALLY interested in what they find.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Surigae ( #25W / #QueeniePH ) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 24 September 2026: Surigae turning northwestward. Interests in #Okinawa need to monitor the progress of this system. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W/Queenie) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 24 September 2026
Surigae turning northwestward. Interests in Okinawa need to monitor the progress of this system.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#Polo is still regrouping from upwelling and eyewall replacement off #Mexico, and now we have #Nolo from the regenerated remnants of #15E in the Central Pacific that could threaten #Hawaii. Polo, Nolo, the EPAC is loco. YOLO. 😕
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Surigae ( #25W, formerly invest #91W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 23 September 2026: Tropical Storm Surigae forms in the central Philippine Sea and is forecast to become an intense typhoon early next week. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm Surigae (25W, formerly invest 91W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 23 September 2026
Tropical Storm Surigae forms in the central Philippine Sea and is forecast to become an intense typhoon early next week.
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Reposted by Will Weaver ⛈️
Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If we use a 35-kt intensity reference point (minimum TS strength) to count hours to category 5 strength... - Linda 1997: 48 hours, 35->155 kt - Patricia 2015: 42 hours, 35->150 kt - Otis 2023: 45 hours, 35->145 kt - Polo 2026: 36 hours, 35->140 kt 140 kt = lowest 5-kt increment for cat 5 strength.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
NHC update on #Polo: winds of 155 kts, pressure down to 892 mb. A second NOAA recon pass through the eye found an extrapolated 889.3 mb pressure and flight level winds of 167 kts, which supports this intensity.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
NOAA recon has found an extrapolated pressure of 889.3 mb in their current mission into #Hurricane #Polo ( #17E ). This would make Polo the second most intense Eastern Pacific hurricane on record after Patricia in 2015 (872 mb).
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The recon delay for #Polo is going to turn out to be quite fortuitous because I'm pretty sure it hasn't peaked yet. Its eye temperature is already one of the warmest on record in the Eastern Pacific. About 1.5 hours to go before NOAA43 arrives.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The recon mission that had been flying into #Polo had to abort due to an engine issue. Another recon plane is about to take off and and fly into the storm, it should be there around 1800 UTC. Polo will probably still be near or at peak intensity by then.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
And recon aborted the mission. Damn. #Polo
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Tropical Depression (Invest #91W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 22 September 2026: Tropical depression forms in the eastern Philippine Sea. Expected to become quite intense by the end of the week. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Depression (Invest 91W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 22 September 2026
Tropical depression forms in the eastern Philippine Sea. Expected to become quite intense by the end of the week.
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Reposted by Will Weaver ⛈️
Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I jumped the gun! Now up to 250-300 flashes per half hour. Good example of enveloped eyewall lightning (EEL) with #Polo
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Recon is on its way to #Polo #17E, and they could find an extremely intense system (as if Category 5 wasn't intense enough). Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that an eyewall replacement is actually not imminent, which means further strengthening is on the table.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Was not aware that GOES-19 is having intermittent outages and this loop ends at 0945Z (3:45am CST). Here's a more recent image of #Polo courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
#Polo #17E has achieved a rare feat - intensifying from a 45 kt tropical storm to a 140 kt Category 5 #hurricane in 24 hrs. There are indications that an eyewall replacement could occur, but Polo has some time to strengthen even further. Hopefully recon gets in before then.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
#Polo #17E is now explosively intensifying in earnest as a seriously intense band of convection has flared and quickly wrapped into the tiny eyewall. Between this and the solidity of the inner core, this is going to seriously take off tonight.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Yeah, #Polo is rapidly intensifying. NHC advisory pressure was 997 mb, the recon mission that just reached its center extrapolated a pressure of 978.4 mb. I believe it, too, the inner core is developing quite rapidly with vortical hot towers blossoming around the tiny eye.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Polo #17E appears poised for explosive intensification as it meanders off the coast of Mexico. A pinhole eye is present on microwave satellite imagery and intermittently on infrared imagery. Some of the models bring it near Cat 5 status later this week.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Typhoon #Dujuan #24W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15: 1200 UTC 21 September 2026: Dujuan moving away from Japan and losing tropical characteristics. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-du...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Typhoon Dujuan (24W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15: 1200 UTC 21 September 2026
Dujuan moving away from Japan and losing tropical characteristics.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
#Dujuan #24W has formed a pinhole eye and a very compact inner core, so the fact JTWC backed off on the 12Z intensity to 60 kts is kind of baffling. A Sentinel-1D SAR pass from earlier supported an intensity of around 85 kts.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Typhoon #Dujuan #24W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1200 UTC 18 September 2026: Dujuan becomes a typhoon again as it passes west of Iwo Jima. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-du...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Typhoon Dujuan (24W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1200 UTC 18 September 2026
Dujuan becomes a typhoon again as it passes west of Iwo Jima.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Severe Tropical Storm #Dujuan #24W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 17 September 2026: Dujuan continuing to strengthen as it turns toward the northwest. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/severe-tro...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Severe Tropical Storm Dujuan (24W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 17 September 2026
Dujuan continuing to strengthen as it turns toward the northwest.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Right now, JTWC has #Dujuan #24W as a 30 kt tropical depression, while JMA has it as a 35 kt tropical storm. If the structure is any indication, it may be quite a bit stronger. There's been a partial eyewall feature present for quite some time now.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Dujuan #24W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 16 September 2026: Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Dujuan. Now forecast to recurve just west of Iwo Jima. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm Dujuan (24W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 16 September 2026
…Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Dujuan… …Now forecast to recurve just west of Iwo Jima.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I can't say I've seen this before. NHC has an area of interest entirely within the Gulf of California. It only has a 10% chance of development, but it looks good for where it is. Although the Gulf has VERY warm SSTs, its narrow size and dry desert air usually hinder development.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Tropical Depression #24W (formerly Invest #90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 15 September 2026: Depression getting better organized as it passes well east of the Marianas. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Depression 24W (formerly Invest 90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 15 September 2026
Depression getting better organized as it passes well east of the Marianas.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Come the fuck on
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Tropical Depression (Invest #90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 14 September 2026: New tropical depression forms east of #Guam. Forecast to steadily intensify during the next few days. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Depression (Invest 90W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 14 September 2026
New tropical depression forms east of Guam. Forecast to steadily intensify during the next few days.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A mid- to upper-level low in the central Mediterranean Sea is showing signs of organization, although there is not much happening at the surface. If the low can develop a surface reflection, it could gain some tropical characteristics and become a #medicane later this week.
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Strong storms moving into the area with lots of lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. The strongest storms will be north of #RVA but the line extends from Spotsylvania County south to Chesterfield County. Time to get indoors. #vawx
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Some loud morning thunderstorms are racing across the Piedmont toward the #RVA area and will probably get here in the next hour to hour and a half. They are not severe yet but they could produce frequent lightning, small hail, and damaging wind gusts. #vawx
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Gonna be a rumbly next few hours as clusters of severe storms move into the #RVA area with multiple warnings already up. Expect very heavy rain and potentially damaging winds from these storms. The good news is it will cool significantly after they move through. #vawx
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Reposted by Will Weaver ⛈️
IEMBOT AKQ @akq.weather.im · 04/09/2026
AKQ issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch (51 forecast zones in [VA] and 4 forecast zones in [AN]) till Sep 4, 9:00 PM EDT Link
IEMBot Image
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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Krovanh #22W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1200 UTC 4 September 2026: Krovanh turns to the south. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...
willweatherrva.beehiiv.com
Tropical Storm Krovanh (22W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1200 UTC 4 September 2026
Krovanh turns to the south.
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