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William Ellis

@willellisecon.bsky.social
155 followers 18 following 110 posts

Senior Economist at IPPR, focussing on the macro economy. Ex-HMT and Oxford Economics. Special interest in macro and AI/Automation. All views are my own.

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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I'm also concerned about UK borrowing costs and fiscal credibility, and it absolutely should be a cornerstone of the upcoming Budget. But this framing I'm seeing feels a tad unfair to me.
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
1/ The Bank of England held rates today, as expected. But the bigger story is buried. QT (QE’s scarier evil twin) has been fundamentally rewritten. I’ve read the minutes so you don’t have to. Strap in for a dive into these key changes and what they could mean: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
bbc.co.uk
Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75%, but governor says high energy costs may lead to increase
Six members of the Monetary Policy Committee, which makes the decision, voted to hold the rate - while the other three wanted an increase to 4%.
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
1/ Might fly under the radar with monetary policy today - but this is big news. ONS have upgraded productivity growth today using a better measure. This is one of the most consequential numbers ahead of budget, and the update could be in the Chancellor's favour. www.ons.gov.uk/releases/com...
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
1/ Pleased to see the UK considering the Canada-led defence bank, as we recommended last month: ippr.org/articles/joi... We can no longer rely on US security guarantees. Building our defence with partners beyond Washington is the right instinct - but we should go further:
ippr.org
Joining forces: A better strategy for defence spending with allies | IPPR
Appointing John Healey as chancellor signals this priority. Healey resigned as defence secretary in June over shortfalls in funding the defence investment
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
1/ Inflation rose again in August to 3.1%, up from 2.9% in July. Driven by the Iran war pushing up fuel prices, +23% over the year. This is not a domestic problem. Core inflation, excluding energy, was unchanged at 2.6%. Private sector pay growth slowed to 2.9%.
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IPPR North @ipprnorth.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
🚀Boosting this country's economy with growth in EVERY region requires a major shift in mindset for Whitehall. It's great to see the political will for institutional change; it's about time we did things differently, so we welcome this move from the PM. Viva No10 North 💪
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
1/ CPI to 2.9% as widely expected - and driven entirely by energy prices, as the latest Ofgem prices from the Iran war feed through the figures. Without energy, inflation actually would have fallen this month.
Line chart of UK consumer price inflation, 12-month rate, January 2024 to July 2026. Two lines: CPI all items, and CPI excluding energy. In July 2026 CPI rose to 2.9%, up from 2.6% in June, while CPI excluding energy fell to 2.4%, down from 2.5%. The two measures move in opposite directions in the final month. Both sit above the Bank of England's 2% target. Source: ONS series D7G7 and DKO7.
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Really proud of the @ippr.org report on fiscal sustainability published today, which I authored with @carsjung.bsky.social: ippr.org/articles/bey... We argue the fiscal framework needs to change over the next parliament to encourage long-term thinking and the right kind of investment. 🧵1/
ippr.org
Beyond headroom: Why we need a better fiscal framework to fix the UK’s long term problems | IPPR
Fiscal rules exist to assure markets of responsible budgeting and fiscal sustainability, and hold government to account. But over the years, UK rules have
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
1/ Britain can afford its existing defence plan, but getting to 3% of GDP is a different matter. In a new piece with my colleague Sofie, we argue the UK should spend with allies, build capacity together — and be honest about the bill.
ippr.org
Joining forces: A better strategy for defence spending with allies | IPPR
Appointing John Healey as chancellor signals this priority. Healey resigned as defence secretary in June over shortfalls in funding the defence investment
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
1/ The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% today. That was expected. Far more concerning is what has happened since it finalised its forecast—and what its adverse scenario says could come next. 🧵
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Institute for Public Policy Research @ippr.org · 28/07/2026
Today we launch #reciprocism - a new progressive politics built on power, place, participation and protection. It's based on one simple idea: The state does more for you, and you do more for each other. Read here: www.ippr.org/articles/wha...
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Institute for Public Policy Research @ippr.org · 28/07/2026
Progressives haven’t had a compelling political project since the Third Way. Our new report sets out one: #reciprocism. A politics in which the state does more for citizens, while asking more of them in return. Read here: www.ippr.org/articles/wha...
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
1/ The OBR published its 50-year projections for the public finances today. Stable this decade, then increasingly unsustainable as the costs of ageing, health and weak productivity build. It'll be overshadowed by NATO coverage — here's why it shouldn't be 🧵
obr.uk
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Institute for Public Policy Research @ippr.org · 01/06/2026
Up to 8 million jobs in the UK are exposed to AI. But a jobs apocalypse is not inevitable. A new generation of workers' rights can protect workers and ensure everyone benefits from this new technology. @josephevans.bsky.social explains 👇
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
GDP grew 0.6% in March — better than feared, but don't get comfortable. As I wrote today, the Iran shock barely shows up in this data. The real damage is still coming, and leaving it to the Bank of England is the wrong response. www.lbc.co.uk/article/gdp-... 🧵👇
lbc.co.uk
Don't be fooled by today's GDP figures. The real Iran shock is coming | LBC
An immediate 10p fuel duty cut could reduce peak inflation by up to 2 percentage points, writes economist William Ellis
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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Capping prices in a supply shock? Wouldn't this just pretend that we have as much oil and gas available as before Iran? Price caps can work in supply shocks when they're designed well 🧵1/9
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
CPI held steady at 3% in February — as lower motor fuel costs were offset by higher core goods prices. But today's figures are a snapshot of the world before Trump's conflict in the Middle East. The real story is what's coming next. 🧵
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Markets weren’t surprised the Bank of England held rates today. But the backdrop has shifted: the Bank has cut its inflation and growth forecasts, strengthening the case for earlier rate cuts to support the economy while keeping inflation on target. #BoE #UKeconomy 🧵
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Carsten Jung @carsjung.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
The Bank of England must pull its weight, and be more open about the impact of its active QT on yields. www.ft.com/content/4137...
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
The Bank of England cut rates by 25bp today. A welcome move as inflation pressures ease and the labour market cools. The next question is the pace: further cuts in 2026 look likely, but it will hinge on incoming data. Thread below 🧵
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Institute for Public Policy Research @ippr.org · 18/12/2025
The cut to interest rates is welcome news. We expect inflation and labour markets will continue to cool, and further cuts to interest rates will be needed to protect economic growth and ensure inflation hits the 2 per cent target, says @willellisecon.bsky.social.
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Good news - CPI inflation drops to 3.2% in Nov. We’ve hit the level the Bank of England didn’t expect until March 2026, putting us four months ahead of their schedule. Prices are actually falling month-on-month (-0.2%), led by visible items: 🍔 Food -0.2% 🍺 Alcohol -0.4%.
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵
ippr.org
Rule of the market: How to lower UK borrowing costs | IPPR
To lower borrowing costs, the government must continue to rebuild credibility, carefully manage market sentiment and pursue growth-enhancing policies with
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Great to see Rachel Reeves strike a clear note on fiscal sustainability & reducing debt at #LabourConference2025. Sending the right signal ahead of the Budget is crucial — and markets look to have responded positively.
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Carsten Jung @carsjung.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Support is growing for adressing the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England. To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...
telegraph.co.uk
Andrew Bailey under political attack on all fronts
Legacy of Bank of England’s quantitative easing policy is coming back to bite the Governor
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Very pleased to see my analysis on UK productivity growth picked up by the FT this morning. Their piece highlights the uncertainty around the OBR’s productivity forecast — and how stark the fiscal implications could be at the Budget. A few of my reflections below 👇
ft.com
The ‘educated guess’ set to decide Keir Starmer’s fiscal fate
OBR judgment on productivity comes as Labour backbenchers fret about watchdog’s influence
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William Ellis @willellisecon.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
1/Productivity really matters - strong growth allows us to produce more, collecting extra tax. Today's data still looks weak, seemingly vindicating calls for a costly OBR downgrade - but closer assessment reveals a strong argument for keeping steady.
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