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Will

@will-rich.bsky.social
252 followers 188 following 1.1K posts

EM macro watcher

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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 8h
10y yields have been moving higher all year as have stocks
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 9h
But why now and not a month ago?
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 12h
POSIWID
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 13h
Not every change in has to be progressive. We have an extremely progressive income tax system already
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 18h
That's very rude
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 18h
That's not true?
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 18h
What do you mean? Mathematicians had solved advanced problems.. in secret?
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Just Stop Oil Venezuela chapter
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/thet... Help is on the way.. if it is politically convenient
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
It would require real bravery to call a snap election
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
telegraph.co.uk
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Helpful clarification, thanks
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Given the very high part-time rate for mid/ late career healthcare professionals who all will be hit by the £100k trap that's clearly relevant and was the point of the conversation Sorry to be direct but I'm not sure what debate you're actually having
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
We should hike employment taxes even more then!
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
There are purely tax based factors that are a material driver in limiting GP working hours Not the only reason, ofc, but a material one (just ask them). The PM can pull the more healthcare lever but it would be bad vibes. Oh well!
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
11% of GPs aged 30 to 40 are working full-time, compared to a third of GPs aged over 60
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
18.7% of GPs in England work the equivalent of a full-time week of 37.5 hours or more
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Burnham getting heat for some very normal sounding property development terms in Manchester If I were to tease: successful, scaled, planning application grants are so unusual in the UK that they will always be viewed with suspicion
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
What do you mean by "capital "flowing uphill"?
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I don't understand the question here at all? You compare because they have the same primary balance? Peru has a third the debt relative to GDP and has the opposite sign of Brazil's current account That's before you get to the level of discretionary spend within the fiscal framework of each country
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Sure, the stylised example is clear My back of envelope calcs get us 51% of retirees being men Looking at the change in composition between each bucket by sex and inferring a dropout rate www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat03... Not the most robust method but I'm not sure if there is a better way
bls.gov
Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population by age, sex, and race : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Men are 55% of employed over-65s and 53.5% of employed over-55s, against 50.6% of under-25s. So yes, clearly does some lifting but I think more being done by sectoral composition
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Health care and social assistance is c.78% female + added 546k, which c.90% of all net adds. All else combined added 58k
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Iirc, the payroll survey doesn't count hiring but gender directly. For each industry, the BLS takes the total employee estimate and multiplies it by the share of women in its sample of firms, smoothed from month to month. So the split by sex is mostly a readout of which industries added jobs
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
We should probably make it compulsory to save for retirement
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Thank you, Rachel Reeves
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Eating well could more than cancel that difference out
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
What have I missed? Boosting defence spend commitments to 3% of GDP by 2030, returning to meeting foreign aid commitments of 0.7% of GDP
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
So Burnham is hinting at all of - rejoining the EU - transformative fiscal devo - meaningful electoral reform - revolution in adult social care - nationalisation of natural monopolies - more implicitly large scale tax hikes Exciting times
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
What was in for the OBR forecast? 10y at 5.1%? Now in and around 5.5%
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Presumably referencing private wage growth there? I didn't catch the speech
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
bsky.app/profile/will...
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Wage growth dynamics point to non-cyclicals driving growth relative cyclicals but maybe that changes if sentiment holds up
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Fans of _a little bit of support_ for property demand are quietly pleased
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Lower migration, higher wage growth (via productivity) and business investment were all goals of Reeves Chancellorship. Did Starmer let the side down just when her plan was beginning to work?
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Burnham setting out a list of grand ambitions for the government (not this one, the next one) would make sense if he were making a pitch for leadership or if he were leader of the opposition
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Lord, give me the end of the triple lock and electoral reform, but not yet!
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Especially one not made until 2030
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The triple lock is not gone. All the journalists and commentators can stop congratulating the PM on a decision he's not made
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Impressive
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Seems like a false dichotomy
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I've never understood where some of the London youth unemployment stats cited come from www.theguardian.com/society/2026...
theguardian.com
‘It makes me feel quite dehumanised’: young at London career fair lay bare barriers to jobs
UK capital is perceived as work hub – but as youth unemployment soars, many feel exiled from job market
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Spectator reporting, apparently in earnest, "Ministers are being lobbied by the chief executive of a major British business to solve the NEETs crisis – by imposing a four-day week on top earners" What if our firm level productivity was too high?
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Has London already seen peak functioning bridges?
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Everyone is more or less familiar with the rates story which is global front page news But this list is very relevant to the UK specifically
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
bsky.app/profile/nobl... The likely benefits relative to past HTB programs is well covered here. Not going to be as simple as in the past without some more improvement in rates and/ or cost of building/ regulation/ duties
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Wow negative second derivative since 2022 is even more brutal
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Developers on a tear today following government help to buy announcement
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Personal care cases seem to be safe from inclusion, tricky probate possibly not
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Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The free money queue is getting quite long these days
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