Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 13hThe triple lock is not gone. All the journalists and commentators can stop congratulating the PM on a decision he's not made 101
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Spectator reporting, apparently in earnest, "Ministers are being lobbied by the chief executive of a major British business to solve the NEETs crisis – by imposing a four-day week on top earners" What if our firm level productivity was too high? 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 27/09/2026It's amazing how senior a politician you can be in the UK and still not believe in property rights 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Transformative AI will increase long-term real interest rates due to consumption smoothing, per Chow, Halperin and Mazlish Fwiw, early drafts of this paper have been available since January 2023 basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_e... 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Even reading tiny amounts about American schooling is very bad for your sanity — beware! 010
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 21/09/2026People are not emotionally prepared for Revolut to be a resounding and ensuring success 120
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 19/09/2026For the sake of human flourishing we should spend more time thinking about how the Danes pulled this off www.ft.com/content/124c... 010
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 17/09/2026We should probably tighten up incentives to work. Marginal tax rates are daft in about five different ways/ places, for example. Even excluding the funny edge cases and discontinuities the marginal rates for above average earners are unusually high vs peers 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 17/09/2026ONS updates to statistics methodology will lead a lot of conclusions to be adjusted 110
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 15/09/2026RTI: "Annual average regular earnings growth was 6.3% for the public sector and 2.9% for the private sector" Somehow the divergence is growing 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 10/09/2026You need to ask yourself why you've not been long Mongolian and Nigerian banks this year 010
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 10/09/2026In multi-strat land return correlations with equities should be approximately zero but have drifted up to around 0.3 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Li Ka-shing and Chris Rokos making UK exits in relatively quick succession this year is a bit 👀 010
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 07/09/2026A wonderful result that pushes back on the removal of the price mechanism in labour markets Leigh Day are absolute chancers who have caused massive damage to local government finances across the country on the back of highly dubious legal arguments 010
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 02/09/2026If you commit massive fraud in law or medicine or finance not only does the profession ban you forever you go to jail If you massive commit fraud in academia then your colleagues will tut and say that you should consider resigning I can't believe that Dan Ariely is still a free man 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Benefit cuts pushed out another year, defence spending funded to the 3% target by 2030, seemingly no income tax/ NICs/ VAT hikes Various eyeing up of devolution, nationalisation, homelessness spending and a VAT cut on electricity bills I don't envy him because the tough decisions are getting close 110
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 01/09/2026In the US bank equity prices were 40% correlated in the 80s and they are around 75% correlated today Improvements in governance and regulatory restrictions decrease variance over time 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 01/09/2026'Suggestions that a new "Plaza Accord" was the answer to reducing imbalances are misguided, Bessent said, calling this "an easy way to get around dealing with the real trade problem," which he said was excessive Chinese industrial subsidies and weak domestic demand.' 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Isn't it amazing how little the composition of budgets change as interest rates moved from 150bps to 500bps? Inertia is so powerful 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/08/2026I still refuse to entertain the idea that if AI succeeds that the impact will be deflationary. It makes absolutely no sense to me 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 30/08/2026The good thing about quangos is that the government can just overrule them. The bad thing is that it hides that the government finds it really easy to hide behind the decisions The quango will say that they followed their mandate and the government will say they accepted the decision 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/08/2026"These are my principles. If you don’t like them I have others" Healey to shelve his own defence spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030 - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FTgiftarticle.ft.comHealey to shelve his own defence spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030Chancellor resigned as defence secretary in June over what he saw as inadequate ambition for military spending by Sir Keir Starmer’s government 171
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 24/08/2026When AI produces novel Fields Medal quality findings everyone will say it's not big deal in just the same way that nobody cared when the Turing Test was blown past 120
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Palantir's genius is partly mysterious marketing but also partly recognising the power of highly productive software engineers embedded in the right places for a good period of time Government's that allow themselves to be radicalised again the second concept are shooting themselves in the foot 120
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 23/08/2026It would be proper preposterous to suggest a link between El Niño and earthquake frequency wouldn't it 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 22/08/2026On the French pension freeze proposal: "These retirees who must continue to help their children and grandchildren, we need to leave them alone," says Aurélien Taché, LFI deputy 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 21/08/2026I don't like Manchester City the club but I can't help but love Guardiola Astonishing talent, astonishing intensity 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Japan PMIs still moving higher "selling prices for goods and services continued to rise rapidly, with the pace of increase among the steepest on record." "Business confidence across Japan picked up in August, with the overall degree of optimism the highest recorded since February" 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 20/08/2026High and volatile rates, inexperienced fed chair, oil shock, massive speculative investment, US and many others on an unsustainable deficit path, credit spreads still very tight I'm not especially excited about risk assets right now 030
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 19/08/2026One of the interesting elements of the debate around AI cyber hacking ability is now profoundly people underestimate the cost to the economy of cyber threats in the pre-AI world 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 18/08/2026UK unemployment single month estimate at 5.4% for June up from 4.6% in May March was also a large print at 5.3% and drops out the 3m rolling series and so 3m rolling unemployment remains at 4.9% 120
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Big day for UK employment data tomorrow. Will boost the case for cuts 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Continually struck by the lack of quality in debate on energy policy in the UK How many energy policy works are pro or anti nuclear but have nothing to say about where it fits into mix? Same applies for solar or wind Lots of vapid discussion of units but little on systems. Who covers this well? 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Challenges for students under the RRA are mostly b/c landlords still having the bargaining power Landlords hate void periods that might arise if students want to leave before summer is over and so some will compensate by charging 20% more in anticipation of 10 rather than 12 month durations 120
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 14/08/2026If we tried to create a tax scheme that was powered by Brits snitching on their neighbours the deficit would closed by the end of the week 130
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 09/08/2026Credit expansion in China is disinflationary. Supply side soaks up the capital and uses it to roll liabilities rather than reaching households, so supply outruns demand and pricing power erodes So how to exit the trap? 110
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 09/08/2026If Europeans want to look very clever they will time any intervention to address imbalances with China with the upturn in the Chinese property market 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 09/08/2026Are markets very short-term orientated? Certainly share prices are more volatile than earnings revisions To some extent money mangers are evaluated quarterly and that _can_ exert unhealthy pressure Markets can be very exuberant and heavy positioning get get you blown out even on good* prints 100
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 09/08/2026To the debatable extent that we have over-financialisation in the UK it is largely because we've banned industries that require the movement of atoms Growth therefore must be derived from the rearrangement of bytes, dollars, and dockets 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Food costs are going to be more challenging in the next 5y Climate change is the most obvious driver Climate policy will pressure cheap livestock alongside higherwelfare standards Growing labour costs in Asia and a lack of productivity gains in African agri Higher rates also impactful 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Eventually China's property market in aggregate will stabilise and return to growth At that point much of the problem of global imbalances will recede There's a very good chance that any protectionist response from the EU/ US will COINCIDENTALLY look very effective 001
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 03/08/2026US Atlanta Fed Nowcast GDP growth run rate: 6.18% in 3Q26 000
Will @will-rich.bsky.social · 28/07/2026I keep being fed Gary Stevenson content by the algos and it's got me wondering He claims to have been betting on inequality getting worse for 15y and making great returns from it How *do you* structure a trade that is long inequality? 110
