iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Read the full open-access paper in Progress in Energy here: 🔗 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... S/o to co-authors Anna Cheyette, Julie Mulvaney Kemp, Dev Millstein, & Seongeun Jeong!

iopscience.iop.org

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/aea1d3

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

4️⃣ Bottom line: Simply building more wires isn't enough. Bilateral contracts, market design differences, & physical constraints often prevent power from moving where it’s needed most. Better coordination in how we use those lines is also needed!

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

3️⃣ Counter-supportive flows & asymmetry exist. During system stress, some regions actually reduced imports or increased exports to unstressed neighbors. Furthermore, benefits are often heavily asymmetric—consistently favoring one region over another.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

2️⃣ Existing lines are underutilized. For about half of the region pairs, transmission flows supported the high-need region only 50–60% of the time during non-coincident peaks. That’s barely better than a coin flip. 🪙

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

1️⃣ Geographic potential varies widely. West region pairs show peak demand overlaps as low as 2–6%, offering huge theoretical potential for mutual support. In contrast, Northeast region pairs overlap 71–74%, limiting bidirectional reliability support.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Can interregional transmission solve our grid's resource adequacy challenges?⚡️ In our new paper in Progress in Energy, my co-authors and I analyzed 9 years of peak demand and power flow data (2016–2024) across 18 U.S. transmission regions. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... Key findings 🧵👇

iopscience.iop.org

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/aea1d3

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Reposted by Will Gorman

The Durability Curve @thedurabilitycurve.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

The 50% to 10% collapse in ERIS use is the tell: non-firm works only where congestion is managed dynamically. Where study assumptions trigger upgrades instead, 'as available' becomes 'as allocated', so generators queue for firm rights they may never use. The queue prices the option, not the power.

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Reposted by Will Gorman

Commercial Solar Guy @commercialsolarguy.com · 31/08/2026

I think my boss will require that I read this.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

This paper alongside an empirical companion piece (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....) provide the most comprehensive assessment of ERIS to date. Huge thanks to my co-authors @tnorris.bsky.social, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, and Fredrich Kahrl. We'd love to hear your thoughts!

papers.ssrn.com

Is Energy-Only Interconnection Working? Empirical Evidence from Two Decades of US Market Data

Growth in electricity demand and generation is increasingly constrained by generator interconnection bottlenecks, with 2,061 gigawatts of proposed capacity stal

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Some takeaways? The concept of energy-only interconnection is economically sound—the challenge is the implementation. Different study assumptions can lead to wide variation in identified network upgrades but also procurement rules and resource adequacy design complicate reform

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The paper reviews 6 ISOs / 3 vertically integrated utilities and found wide variations in ERIS implementation Regions differ drastically on study methods, cost allocation, and whether congestion is managed dynamically in real-time or triggers expensive network upgrades in studies

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

ERIS was meant to allow new generators to connect on an "as available" basis, avoiding massive upfront transmission upgrades. Yet, over the last two decades in the U.S., ERIS waiting times have gone up and ERIS use has plummeted from 50% to just 10% of active capacity.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

ERCOT's "connect and manage" model gets the buzz in grid reform debates, but U.S. regions already offer a non-firm option: Energy Resource Interconnection Service. So why are IX queues still bottlenecked? Our new paper in Energy Policy investigates 🧵 👇️ www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Check out all the details in the Excel data file available at the link above. An update to the annual Queued Up report is also in the works, so stay tuned! (The latest version can always be found at emp.lbl.gov/queues)

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

🤝But even after signing IAs, a substantial fraction of requests will end up withdrawn rather than built.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

🤝Interconnection agreement processing appears to be improving, too. Several regions (among those with available data) executed a record volume of new IAs in 2025, with CAISO and ERCOT each finalizing new IAs amounting to >50% of their peak load capacity.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

⚡ That resulted in a 10% decrease in total active capacity in queues from 2024-2025. Active capacity decreased in all study regions except for ERCOT and SPP. Reducing backlogged queue volume has been a major goal of recent interconnection reforms.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

⚡2,061 GW of generation and storage capacity were actively seeking transmission interconnection across the U.S. as of the end of 2025. Capacity withdrawn (~750 GW) exceeded that of new requests added (~600 GW) to interconnection queues in 2025

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

📊Features data from 40,000 interconnection requests across 7 ISO/RTOs and 50 non-ISO BAs through the end of 2025. The data includes the full dataset, alongside a data dictionary, and >35 tabs featuring summarized analysis tables and figures for a wide range of key metrics.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

🚨 🚨 ICYMI 🚨 🚨 We released our latest queue dataset! Check it out here: emp.lbl.gov/publications... Thread below with some of the highlights 👇️ 👇️ Thanks to the @berkeleylabemp.bsky.social team (Joe Rand, Anna Cheyette, Ryan Wiser, Jo Seel) and Interconnection.FYI

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Great team collaboration with Ryan Wiser Galen Barbose, Sean Murphy, Peter Cappers, and Lisa Schwartz and many other co-authors. Report link one more time: emp.lbl.gov/publications...

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

How to reduce the bill impacts of utility distribution costs? State utility regulators have many tools at their disposal to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Though all options embed important tradeoffs, see image for the menu of options

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

🔎 Recently authorized ROEs are low relative to historical values, but PUC approval levels are higher than in the past. PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher ROEs over the last 5 years (>10%) than in other regions.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

🔎 IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and PUC approval levels have recently hit multi-decadal highs --> likely continued price increases. 🔎 PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%) than other regions

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

As part of our recent work on utility distribution costs, we synthesized data on historical utility rate increase and equity return requests, and the degree to which regulators approved those requests. Some interesting findings include:

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

🔎 Note that above just include distribution infrastructure-related CapEx and O&M. Business ops costs are also sometimes assigned to “distribution” in retail rates. In California, IOU business operations spending increased by ~2.3 ¢/kWh since 2014, mostly driven by wildfires

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

🔎 Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Some recent trends: 🔎 IOU distribution spending grew by 6%/yr since 2014: 4x faster than the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of CapEx. 🔎 Larger distribution-driven rate increases in CAISO (~3 ¢/kWh since 2014), NYISO & ISO-NE (~1 ¢/kWh), then the Southeast, MISO & PJM.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Want to hear what the authors have to say about the work? Register for a webinar coming up on May 13, 2026: 12:00 -1:00 p.m. Eastern. Register here: lbnl.zoom.us/webinar/regi... Continue reading for more details 👇️ 👇️

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

3️⃣ It examines trends in utility rate increase and ROE requests, and regulatory approvals of those requests. 4️⃣ It identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned. 5️⃣ It highlights options that state regulators can consider to mitigate impact.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

The study includes five distinct components: 1️⃣ It summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs, drawing on data from FERC Form 1. 2️⃣ It characterizes drivers of planned distribution expenditures, based on a review of a sample of distribution-system plans.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

⚡️ ICYMI -- released a report last week on utility distribution costs! ⚡️ Our Goal: help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in IOU expenditures on local distribution power grids: emp.lbl.gov/publications... thread 👇️ 👇️ 👇️

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Reposted by Will Gorman

Energy Markets & Planning at Berkeley Lab @berkeleylabemp.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Electricity trades across regions can save money, but market inefficiencies can erode those savings. A new study from @BerkeleyLab finds $1.23 billion a year in gross savings were offset by $551 million of uneconomic transactions. 🧵 🔌 💡 1/x

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Dig into the details👇️ 👇️ doi.org/10.1177/0195...

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

The study covers approximately 50 GW of transfer capacity, roughly 60% of national transfer capacity. The sample suggests that the potential savings would be potentially much larger if changes were implemented nation-wide.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

One unique aspect about this study is its wide temporal and geographic scope. While previous studies and market monitors have documented inefficiencies in specific market seams, this study is the first with coverage across many regions, using unified and well documented methods.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

That said, improving interregional coordination is challenging, and would incur costs. Potential strategies to improve coordination are discussed in the paper. The goal of our study was to quantify the opportunity, not to estimate the costs of meeting the coordination challenge.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

One important aspect of the study is that it focuses on cost savings that could derive from operational changes to the current infrastructure, by changing software and policies, NOT hardware. These savings could be achieved while avoiding the challenges of building new TX lines

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

The value was lost due to uneconomic transactions in other hours, resulting in a net savings of $680 million per year but much of this value, and more – up to $790 million – could be gained by improving how interregional trade is coordinated.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

In the new paper, we find opportunity for substantial savings through improved operations. In the last 10 yrs, Interregional electricity transfers saved $1.2 billion per year by moving energy from lower to higher-priced regions,but almost half of the value of these gains was lost

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

The focus on operations is a departure from our past work which, in contrast, focused on the potential value of building new transmission. Key takeaway: we could be doing (much) better in optimizing the use of existing transmission infrastructure.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

⚡️ New LBNL article out on interregional electric transmission ⚡️ We explore how interregional transmission has been operated in the U.S. (2014 – 2023) by tracking interregional trade and market prices. Open access, in The Energy Journal: doi.org/10.1177/0195... 🧵 👇️

doi.org

Interregional Electricity Transmission in the United States: Realized Savings and Opportunities for Increased Value, 2014 to 2023 - Leila Safavi, Julie Mulvaney Kemp, Will Gorman, Dev Millstein, Ryan Wiser, 2025

Interregional electricity trade in the United States reduces total energy costs, but falls short of maximizing the economic potential of existing transmission i...

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

And check out some of the earlier papers from this 3-year research effort below, also open-access: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

One of the key outcomes of peer review was to think more about how storage degradation might impact the calculus of the above findings. You'll have to download the full paper to find out! 🙂 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

💡 Allowing grid charging largely eliminates need to hold storage in reserve.

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

💡 Higher reserve levels may increase total customer value for customers with an exceptionally high value of lost load, living in areas with exceptionally frequent power interruptions

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

💡 Total customer value tends to be greatest when reserves are set as low as allowed

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

💡 Reliability value is (surprisingly) insensitive to storage reserve level under most conditions. 💡 Bill savings drop precipitously with higher storage reserves

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

This study evaluates a key operational tradeoff for homeowners: the more storage capacity held in reserve, the greater the customer’s ability to ride through power interruptions, but less capacity is then available to manage utility bills on a day-to-day basis. Key highlights:

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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

🔌 New Journal Article Alert 🔌 Backup power or bill savings? How electricity tariffs impact residential solar-plus-storage usage in the United States I'm happy to announce has recently been published, open-access, in Utilities Policy 👇 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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