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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸

@wellactuarially.com
517 followers 915 following 1.2K posts

Fun lover. And by fun I mean building homes, protected bike lanes, funding transit and other things that are good for people. Also board games.

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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 30/09/2026
OMG
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 30/09/2026
Tatis IMMEDIATE homerun is poetry
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 30/09/2026
I don't know how to plan for this tbh. Would love someone smarter than me in this regard to tell me how.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 26/09/2026
Camps, but leftishly
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 26/09/2026
Hell yeah
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 26/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Man Head Bopping to Music
ALT: Man Head Bopping to Music
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 26/09/2026
Embarrassingly high approval. A very high number of those white people are just white supremacists, explicitly or implicitly. He's probably already lost a good chunk of white supremacists.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 25/09/2026
Me on election night 2024
static.klipy.com
Dark Trilogy: It's Going To Happen Again
ALT: Dark Trilogy: It's Going To Happen Again
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 25/09/2026
Dark is one of my all time faves
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 25/09/2026
The split is Yak — info dump on me and share interesting tangential information, Tutor — carefully explain and then probe, and Examiner — ask more mastery style questions and record whether I understand the topic in some memory files for later reference.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 25/09/2026
This is where designed AI skills or dedicated agents really start to separate casual chat users from people who are getting the most out of it. I have a dedicated teach skill and and I'm setting up a better multi-agent setup.
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ashley (ravens 2-1) 🌹 @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
WE’RE GOING TO VALHALLA IN NOVEMBER!!!!!!
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 23/09/2026
Really is time for a "Thank God our enemies are so stupid"
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 23/09/2026
Soooo much ideological migration
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 23/09/2026
Ok, you at least have to remember your partner's phone number. I've met people who are *married* and don't know their partner's phone number.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 23/09/2026
People are going to get seriously hurt in every conceivable dimension in very predictable ways. I'm so hopping mad
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Grace @gracekind.net · 19/09/2026
Frog built a wet lab for the AI model. "There," he said. "Now it can do its own experiments." "What the fuck?" said Toad
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Starfire’s Deranged Neocon Foreign Policy Podcast @irhottakes.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is bad and should be called out. I push back against accusing everyone that breathes for wanting to throw us under the bus, so it is credible when we call it out when it unambiguously occurs. This is an unambiguous occurrence.
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lxigh @dotorion.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
99% of ruminators quit right before they would have had a life-changing epiphany
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 13/09/2026
My wedding band is a Möbius strip and I'm pretty jazzed about that.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 12/09/2026
I don't actually believe that and I didn't claim it
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 12/09/2026
Not sure why I would argue with you. You don't respect the expertise of mathematicians and you don't seem to care about it's future. Nor do you even seem interested in understanding what I am saying or the letter you are critiquing.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 12/09/2026
Results are not really the point of mathematics. I've been thinking about this a ton. The community is the end result we are seeking with mathematics. What good is a corpus of literature no one understands?
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 11/09/2026
Former mayor tries to save the city from itself
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 09/09/2026
AI labs refusing to share negative results is a huge problem. The "dead ends" of NS have been gold mines for mathematics.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 08/09/2026
Please
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 08/09/2026
I think we are using two different definitions of first principles then. Because yes, Fable did that.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 08/09/2026
This is not true. It did not do so from first principles. It followed a simplified (?) proof that was based on Wiles's proof.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 08/09/2026
If I had not started to be convinced myself on my own terms, the way reasonable people have come around would've at least given me pause.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 07/09/2026
This seems particularly egregious considering that doing a proper lit review is precisely a domain where AI shines. This looks very intentional to me.
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Matt Henderson @matthen.com · 07/09/2026
A ring built from the Julia sets found along the main cardioid of the Mandelbrot set. one of my favourite mathematical objects
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 26/08/2026
Padres partnering with Kalshi sucks.
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Brett "Solidarity 2026" Banditelli @banditelli.org · 25/08/2026
Fun fact, tho not so much given the circumstances: Many large west coast SEIU local numbers are based off mergers. 1021 was 10 locals, now 1. 521 was 5, now 1. 721 was 7, now 1. Not 925. 925 is numbered after the 9 to 5 movement of women workers in the 70s, which Dolly wrote the song about.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 25/08/2026
Ken from The Barbie Movie explaining that his job is just... spreadsheets
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 23/08/2026
I've seen that IQ question like 10 times and I finally looked at it long enough to get it.
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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
A very common DC tourist reaction to the White House is "oh, it's smaller than I thought." And damn right it is, as it should be.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 22/08/2026
I've got a lot going on in my life. But I think it be worth it to sink 100 hours of self study into systems engineering in the next year. But also, actuary exams are looming. The spectre of Exam 5 is giving me the heebie-jeebies.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 22/08/2026
I've been thinking this. Precisely formalized programs on the cheap is nuts.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 21/08/2026
Depends on the model, but it certainly can be.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 21/08/2026
Yes, that is a very good analogy. And it extends quite well (right now). Machined parts are obviously of higher quality than printed parts. Just as thoughtfully crafted code by a software engineer is better than spaghetti code produced by a novice piloting AI.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 21/08/2026
Ctrl + C, Ctrl + V, Alt + F4
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 21/08/2026
I built out a tool then I estimate will save my firm $50k per year on the very low end and a ton more than that on the high end. That took me like 4 days and $300 in compute? Presentation on it this Thursday!
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 21/08/2026
Every day I go back to work and whisper to myself "Back to the spreadsheet mines"
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Hear me out. What if instead of selling food below cost to all comers at taxpayer expense, then using more taxpayer dollars to subsidize private companies that can't compete, we had a program targeting nutritional assistance just to the people who needed it, as a sort of supplement?
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 20/08/2026
Avoiding AI doesn't mean you're doing the homework. Doing the homework has always been a superpower. You can even do both.
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Regime Accountant, CPA ☠️🎢 @regimecpa.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Sorry but linear algebra has not delivered any of the utopian claims the technology boosters have made. It’s only been useful to spreadsheet people.
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Casey Drottar @caseydrottar.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Fernando Tatis Jr. with the coldest grand slam robbery I have ever seen in my life
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 18/08/2026
Not as safe as other high end helmets (no MIPS). But being more portable is so huge, I'm not sure if I care for city riding.
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Marcus Helmer 🇺🇸 @wellactuarially.com · 18/08/2026
The alternative is these books never get read by anyone forever. Everywhere I look it seeks like people's information environment is so polluted and I'm at a loss for what we do about it
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