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WeatherTiger

@weathertiger.bsky.social
1.9K followers 127 following 295 posts

Daily tropical newsletter at weathertiger.substack.com. Posts by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, weatherman, inframarathoner, dad, dad-humorist.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Florida’s hurricane landfall-free streak ends at exactly 2 years, 1 hour. #Isaias has made landfall as a Category 2 at 8:30 p.m. CT near #Destin, with maximum sustained winds preliminarily estimated to be 105 mph. Worst impacts continue through midnight in the western Panhandle.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
***Hurricane Isaias 8:15 p.m. ET/7:15 p.m. CT Update: Landfall Imminent near Destin*** Isaias is finally weakening a bit, down to a Category 2 hurricane. Worst of the storm will be over the next two to four hours in the western Panhandle, flood and rain threat continue overnight east. Update here:
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New landfall impacts forecast video for Major Hurricane Isaias is up now. Walking through the current situation and region-by-region timing and threats for the Florida Panhandle, North-Central Florida, and inland South.
youtu.be
WeatherTiger's Major Hurricane Isaias Landfall Impacts Forecast
YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Category 3 Hurricane Isaias is on final approach to a landfall near Destin. WeatherTiger's final pre-landfall forecast for Isaias is a complete guide to how bad and when surge, wind, rain, and tornado impacts will likely be felt, region-by-region across Florida and beyond:
weathertiger.substack.com
Hurricane Isaias Local Impacts Forecast for October 9th (PM)
Walking you through all of Isaias' surge, wind, tornado, and flooding impacts in Florida, along the Gulf Coast, and inland.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
As of 7:20 a.m. CT, #HurricaneIsaias has strengthened to a major, Cat 3 hurricane with 120 mph sustained winds. #Isaias will make landfall near Pensacola between 8-11 p.m. CT tonight. Region-by-region impacts forecast out around noon followed by a forecast video. Stay safe!
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Tonight's impacts forecast video discusses Category 2 #HurricaneIsaias and all its surge, wind, tornado, and rain threats to North Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, and beyond. Landfall is expected late Friday near Pensacola. www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGUO...
youtube.com
WeatherTiger's Hurricane Isaias Impacts Forecast: October 8
YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
#HurricaneIsaias is less than 36 hours from landfall on the Gulf Coast. Today, I walk you through each of the 4 main hurricane hazards—surge, wind, tornadoes, and rain— how severe they are going to be, and where those impacts will occur during #Isaias:
weathertiger.substack.com
Hurricane Isaias Impacts Forecast for October 8th (PM)
Walking you through all of Isaias' surge, wind, tornado, and flooding impacts in Florida, along the Gulf Coast, and inland.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
It took 129 days of hurricane season for a hurricane to form, but #Isaias unfortunately has broken the streak. Broad rain, surge, wind, and tornado impacts expected from Mississippi east across the #Florida Panhandle starting tomorrow AM, continuing into Saturday. Full threat forecast out ~1 p.m.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Here's tonight's live forecast video for #saias. Look for the next newsletter to go out around 1 p.m. tomorrow walking through all the expected surge, wind, rain, and tornado impacts one-by-one for the Gulf Coast and beyond. www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwVW...
youtube.com
WeatherTiger Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast for October 7
YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
#TropicalStormIsaias has developed in the Gulf. The forecast is still evolving, but #Isaias will likely become a hurricane tomorrow, and coast impacts start early Friday. That means the time to secure life and property on the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast is right now. My Wednesday PM forecast:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast for October 7th (PM)
Isaias is a hurricane threat to the Central Gulf Coast and will spread dangerous surge, rain, wind, and tornado impacts along and well east of its track Friday and Saturday.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Update: Now #TropicalDepression9, soon to be #Isaias. NHC opening bid peak intensity as Cat 2, but discussion alludes to some weakening before landfall.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Just when we thought we were out, Hurricane Season 2026 pulls us back in. If you are on the Gulf Coast from SE Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, it’s time to shake off that 2026 stupor and prepare for torrential rain, plus potential surge, wind, and tornado impacts. Full #Invest92L forecast:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Invest 92L Forecast for October 6th
A storm developing in the Gulf will reach the Gulf Coast by this weekend, bringing rain, surge, wind, and tornado impacts from eastern Louisiana to north-Central Florida.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It’s been a dead-quiet hurricane season, but the Gulf Coast needs to shake off complacency because #Invest92L in the SW Gulf is coming together. A named storm is likely; a weekend hurricane is possible. Monday PM discussion below. Sign up at the link for full #92L (potentially #Isaias) coverage.
weathertiger.substack.com
The System is Down: The Hurricane Watch for October 5th
A potentially threatening disturbance is developing down in the southern Gulf, while a major radar outage continues along the Gulf Coast.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
As the first September since 1994 with no Atlantic hurricanes ends, you might think any chance of U.S. impacts is behind us. However, in 2026, everything you know is wrong (to quote Weird Al). Detail on a final possible polka with tropical weirdness for the Gulf Coast in this week’s newsletter:
weathertiger.substack.com
The Going Gets Weird: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 30th
The Gulf is worth watching for possible development in the second week of October.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is the Garfield Minus Garfield of seasons, going longer with no hurricanes than any year since 1914. Yet N. Hemisphere tropical activity is running 15% above normal. So where are the storms? Daft Punk, the Chili Peps, ATC, and Oasis can tell you: around the world.
weathertiger.substack.com
All Around the World: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 23rd
Where are the hurricanes in 2026? Look to the west.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Atlantic is still (mostly) calm today. Exactly 100 years ago, U.S. history’s worst hurricane was striking South Florida.
weathertiger.substack.com
THE Miami Hurricane: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 18th
The Atlantic is still (mostly) calm today. Exactly 100 years ago, U.S. history’s worst hurricane was striking South Florida.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season now occupying the slot for least Atlantic tropical activity to date since at least 1950, no storms on the horizon, and the season halfway done, this week's column investigates: will 2026 be the quietest hurricane season of all time?
weathertiger.substack.com
Friends in Low ACEs: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 9th
Will 2026 be the quietest hurricane season in history?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is taking longer to develop than GTA VI, and with 0 hurricanes to date and the coast looking as clear as it can in September (minus Edouard's local flooding), this week's column looks at why there's no end in sight to a quiet Tropics:
weathertiger.substack.com
Nothing Anywhere All at Once: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 2nd
Edouard winds down over Texas as it causes severe localized flooding, and the Tropics are otherwise shockingly quiet heading into Labor Day weekend.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
As Hurricane Season 2026 limps into its alleged peak season, just one tropical disturbance has a chance of development this week, Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic. This week’s hurricane column breaks down the three long-range possibilities for 96L, from nothingburger to something to watch:
weathertiger.substack.com
Wise Investment: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for August 26th
Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic is probably nothing, but an eventual path into the western subtropical Atlantic can’t be ruled out.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
In 2026, the bell that kicks off the peak of hurricane season on August 20 tolls for no one. That may change next week. I dig into the long-range forecast, plus what hurricane naming and retirement history can teach us about U.S. storm risks, in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
weathertiger.substack.com
Just One Day from Retirement: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for August 19th
As the peak season allegedly begins, digging into what hurricane naming and retirement history can teach us about U.S. storm risks.
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Reposted by WeatherTiger
WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In 2026, the lettuce is trying to kill us. The #hurricanes? Not so much. Today, WeatherTiger is releasing our updated U.S. #hurricane risk outlook, assessing how U.S. landfall odds are shaping up for the upcoming peak season. Read the full outlook here:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk Outlook for August 2026
How do favored development locations during an ultra-mega-El Niño shape U.S. hurricane landfall risks in 2026?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Short version: 2026 is more chicken soup for the soul than danger salad. WeatherTiger’s real-time U.S. landfall risk model projects that at least a couple more named storm strikes are probably still ahead in 2026, though odds of stronger hurricanes are much lower than in an average year.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In 2026, the lettuce is trying to kill us. The #hurricanes? Not so much. Today, WeatherTiger is releasing our updated U.S. #hurricane risk outlook, assessing how U.S. landfall odds are shaping up for the upcoming peak season. Read the full outlook here:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk Outlook for August 2026
How do favored development locations during an ultra-mega-El Niño shape U.S. hurricane landfall risks in 2026?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Despite a raging El Nino, 2026 is more active to-date than about 40% of hurricane seasons since 1950. Most of that ACE was close to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where 2 tropical storms are a faster start than ~85% of seasons. No correlation between early and peak season ACE, however.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
With #Bertha’s 2.2 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the books, the 2.6 total ACE the 2026 hurricane season has produced so far this year is spitting distance from normal, for now. The average season through July 24 has produced ~6 ACE units but the median is ~3 ACE units.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
#Bertha is still out there doing its signature move, namely being a barely noticeable tropical storm clinging to the coast. Impacts in coastal E TX/LA today are limited to 40-50 mph gusts, passing showers & 1-3’ of surge. Thursday/final Bertha update: weathertiger.substack.com/p/tropical-s...
weathertiger.substack.com
Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 23rd
Bertha is scraping the western Gulf Coast with modest wind, rain, and surge impacts.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
High tides peaked in the minor to moderate flooding range this morning from eastern Louisiana to the Pensacola area.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
#TropicalStormBertha is producing bands of showers with 40-50 mph wind gusts from eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, plus 1-3’ feet of elevated tides. #Bertha should slowly wind down as it scrapes the Central/Western Gulf Coast through tomorrow afternoon. Full Wednesday update:
weathertiger.substack.com
Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 22nd
Bertha is dawdling along the Central Gulf Coast, producing generally modest impacts.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
The worst of #TropicalStormBertha is offshore but #Bertha's bands are bringing stiff gusts to the #Florida Panhandle. Panama City Beach pier saw sustained winds of 45 mph and a 57 mph gust last hour. Coastal tropical-storm-force gusts continue overnight in the western Panhandle.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
As expected, #TropicalStormBertha is peaking out in strength this morning as it makes a close brush past the Florida Panhandle, bringing gusty bands as it does. Your full Tuesday details on #Bertha’s wind, surge, and rain impacts from #Florida to #Texas:
weathertiger.substack.com
Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 21st
Bertha is brushing the Florida Panhandle with gusty bands, but rain will continue to be intermittent as the tropical storm approaches the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
#TropicalDepressionTwo is adrift in the NE Gulf, and could become TS #Bertha today. Will potential Bertha measure up to its canonical sobriquet of “big?” Not especially. Discussing all the rain, surge, wind, and tornado impacts of #TD2, such as they are: weathertiger.substack.com/p/weathertig...
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger Tropical Depression Two Impacts Forecast for July 20th
TD 2 is a rainmaker from west-central Florida to eastern Louisiana into midweek.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
It's just a box of rain, I don't know who put it there. Believe it if you need it, or leave it if you dare...
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
#TropicalDepressionTwo has gotten a bit better organized overnight, but is still struggling against dry air and shear. Likely to become Tropical Storm #Bertha today, but rainfall along #Florida Gulf Coast remains main impact. Full #TD2 forecast and discussion out around noon.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
5 p.m. #TD2 update out now for supporters: weathertiger.substack.com/p/tropical-d...
weathertiger.substack.com
Tropical Depression 2 Update for July 19th
Newly formed TD 2 is likely to become TS Bertha in the northeastern Gulf, and remains a rainmaker for Florida and the central Gulf Coast into midweek.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Update: #TropicalDepressionTwo has developed as of 11 am, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the central and western Florida Panhandle. I'll have a #TD2 update for supporters this afternoon and for everyone tomorrow morning. Sign up here: weathertiger.substack.com/subscribe
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
#Invest91L in the eastern Gulf is organizing and NHC development odds are now 80%. Advisories/watches are likely to begin later today, and I'll have my forecast after those go out. In the meantime, #Florida can expect showers and storms today along the Panhandle and Peninsula Gulf Coast.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
The NHC odds of a Gulf convective blob becoming a tropical depression are up to 30%, but the odds of it causing a rainy weekend and beyond for #Florida are higher. If you have outdoor plans over the next few days, beware of blob. Weekend forecast here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/major-blob...
weathertiger.substack.com
Major Blob Alert: WeatherTiger's Hurricane Watch for July 17th
A dollop of Gulf convection will keep Florida wet into next week and has an outside chance at modest tropical development.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Also, check out the video version of the 2026 Power Rankings: www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK9t...
youtube.com
WeatherTiger's 2026 Hurricane Model Power Rankings
YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Each computer forecast model has strengths and weaknesses, but with so many new models plus AI getting in the mix recently, which should you trust for accurate hurricane forecasts? The 2026 WeatherTiger Hurricane Model Power Rankings are out today, rating 'em all from F-tier to S-tier.
weathertiger.substack.com
Next Top Model '26: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for July 15th
Counting down WeatherTiger's 2026 hurricane computer model power rankings.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I'm not really using any AI, to be honest. This is what came up when I did a Google search for "feisty hobo" and wanted to see how deep the hallucination rabbit hole went, for the lulz.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I made up some firework names for this column and now Google AI is convinced they are real products, to the point of making up imaginary visual effects and color characteristics for them. Which should I go with for my party? Like for #FeistyHobo, retweet for the #Defenestrator.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
U.S. weather this week is a one-if-by-land situation: our fair country will be free from the tyranny of hurricane threats, yet oppressed by excessive heat. Latest on the swelter and when the next tropical system might develop in this week’s Independence Day (and “Independence Day”)-themed column.
weathertiger.substack.com
To the Gulf Stream Waters: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for July 1st
A disturbance winding down east of Florida means no tropical threats to the holiday weekend, though it'll be hot enough to make King George III go mad.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Huge declines in average local ACE per season in the Gulf and Caribbean going from moderate/strong La Nina to strong El Nino seasons. More of a mixed bag historically in the subtropical and eastern Atlantic.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Comparing strong Nino years and moderate/strong Nina years, there are ~3x as many Atlantic major hurricanes per season during Ninas. Also, almost no tropical cyclone activity at all in southern/western Gulf and western/central Caribbean during 7 strongest peak season El Ninos!
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Hyper-mega El Nino 2026 is here, and all other tropical storms must bow before it. But how will a potential record El Nino influence the 2026 #hurricane season and beyond? This week's column looks at how El Nino modulates development, and checks on the odds of close to home activity in early July.
weathertiger.substack.com
Heated Rivalry: WeatherTiger Weekly Column for June 24th
How will a potential record El Nino influence the 2026 hurricane season and beyond?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Taking the scenic, overland route, #TropicalStormArthur will grind along the Gulf Coast today before moving inland overnight. The key impact of #Arthur is heavy rainfall and flash flood risks from #Texas to #Florida through Friday. Forecast, numerous Holy Grail references here:
weathertiger.substack.com
Rain Check: WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast for June 17th
Arthur is a flash and river flooding threat to the central Gulf Coast and inland Deep South.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Also, as PTC 1 percolates, I will be discussing my outlook for the 2026 Hurricane Season in a webinar via Climate Central at noon today. It’s free and the link to sign up is in the QR code below.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
#PotentialTropicalCyclone1, currently over south #Texas, may become #TropicalStormArthur in the NW Gulf tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will continue through Friday across the Gulf Coast. Tuesday forecast discussion for #PTC1 here:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 Forecast for June 16th
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will bring several more days of heavy rainfall and localized flood threats along the Gulf Coast east to the Florida Panhandle.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Thanks! Obviously there are generous uncertainly intervals around even a skillful seasonal outlook, but we have managed to have the lowest average error of the regularly issued May/June ACE forecasts over the last 10 years.
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