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WeatherTiger

@weathertiger.bsky.social
1.9K followers 127 following 286 posts

Daily tropical newsletter at weathertiger.substack.com. Posts by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, weatherman, inframarathoner, dad, dad-humorist.

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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 3h
Here's tonight's live forecast video for #saias. Look for the next newsletter to go out around 1 p.m. tomorrow walking through all the expected surge, wind, rain, and tornado impacts one-by-one for the Gulf Coast and beyond. www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwVW...
youtube.com
WeatherTiger Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast for October 7
YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 12h
#TropicalStormIsaias has developed in the Gulf. The forecast is still evolving, but #Isaias will likely become a hurricane tomorrow, and coast impacts start early Friday. That means the time to secure life and property on the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast is right now. My Wednesday PM forecast:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast for October 7th (PM)
Isaias is a hurricane threat to the Central Gulf Coast and will spread dangerous surge, rain, wind, and tornado impacts along and well east of its track Friday and Saturday.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Just when we thought we were out, Hurricane Season 2026 pulls us back in. If you are on the Gulf Coast from SE Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, it’s time to shake off that 2026 stupor and prepare for torrential rain, plus potential surge, wind, and tornado impacts. Full #Invest92L forecast:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Invest 92L Forecast for October 6th
A storm developing in the Gulf will reach the Gulf Coast by this weekend, bringing rain, surge, wind, and tornado impacts from eastern Louisiana to north-Central Florida.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It’s been a dead-quiet hurricane season, but the Gulf Coast needs to shake off complacency because #Invest92L in the SW Gulf is coming together. A named storm is likely; a weekend hurricane is possible. Monday PM discussion below. Sign up at the link for full #92L (potentially #Isaias) coverage.
weathertiger.substack.com
The System is Down: The Hurricane Watch for October 5th
A potentially threatening disturbance is developing down in the southern Gulf, while a major radar outage continues along the Gulf Coast.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
As the first September since 1994 with no Atlantic hurricanes ends, you might think any chance of U.S. impacts is behind us. However, in 2026, everything you know is wrong (to quote Weird Al). Detail on a final possible polka with tropical weirdness for the Gulf Coast in this week’s newsletter:
weathertiger.substack.com
The Going Gets Weird: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 30th
The Gulf is worth watching for possible development in the second week of October.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is the Garfield Minus Garfield of seasons, going longer with no hurricanes than any year since 1914. Yet N. Hemisphere tropical activity is running 15% above normal. So where are the storms? Daft Punk, the Chili Peps, ATC, and Oasis can tell you: around the world.
weathertiger.substack.com
All Around the World: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 23rd
Where are the hurricanes in 2026? Look to the west.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Atlantic is still (mostly) calm today. Exactly 100 years ago, U.S. history’s worst hurricane was striking South Florida.
weathertiger.substack.com
THE Miami Hurricane: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 18th
The Atlantic is still (mostly) calm today. Exactly 100 years ago, U.S. history’s worst hurricane was striking South Florida.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season now occupying the slot for least Atlantic tropical activity to date since at least 1950, no storms on the horizon, and the season halfway done, this week's column investigates: will 2026 be the quietest hurricane season of all time?
weathertiger.substack.com
Friends in Low ACEs: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 9th
Will 2026 be the quietest hurricane season in history?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is taking longer to develop than GTA VI, and with 0 hurricanes to date and the coast looking as clear as it can in September (minus Edouard's local flooding), this week's column looks at why there's no end in sight to a quiet Tropics:
weathertiger.substack.com
Nothing Anywhere All at Once: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for September 2nd
Edouard winds down over Texas as it causes severe localized flooding, and the Tropics are otherwise shockingly quiet heading into Labor Day weekend.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
As Hurricane Season 2026 limps into its alleged peak season, just one tropical disturbance has a chance of development this week, Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic. This week’s hurricane column breaks down the three long-range possibilities for 96L, from nothingburger to something to watch:
weathertiger.substack.com
Wise Investment: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for August 26th
Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic is probably nothing, but an eventual path into the western subtropical Atlantic can’t be ruled out.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
In 2026, the bell that kicks off the peak of hurricane season on August 20 tolls for no one. That may change next week. I dig into the long-range forecast, plus what hurricane naming and retirement history can teach us about U.S. storm risks, in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
weathertiger.substack.com
Just One Day from Retirement: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for August 19th
As the peak season allegedly begins, digging into what hurricane naming and retirement history can teach us about U.S. storm risks.
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Reposted by WeatherTiger
WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In 2026, the lettuce is trying to kill us. The #hurricanes? Not so much. Today, WeatherTiger is releasing our updated U.S. #hurricane risk outlook, assessing how U.S. landfall odds are shaping up for the upcoming peak season. Read the full outlook here:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk Outlook for August 2026
How do favored development locations during an ultra-mega-El Niño shape U.S. hurricane landfall risks in 2026?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In 2026, the lettuce is trying to kill us. The #hurricanes? Not so much. Today, WeatherTiger is releasing our updated U.S. #hurricane risk outlook, assessing how U.S. landfall odds are shaping up for the upcoming peak season. Read the full outlook here:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk Outlook for August 2026
How do favored development locations during an ultra-mega-El Niño shape U.S. hurricane landfall risks in 2026?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
With #Bertha’s 2.2 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the books, the 2.6 total ACE the 2026 hurricane season has produced so far this year is spitting distance from normal, for now. The average season through July 24 has produced ~6 ACE units but the median is ~3 ACE units.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
#Bertha is still out there doing its signature move, namely being a barely noticeable tropical storm clinging to the coast. Impacts in coastal E TX/LA today are limited to 40-50 mph gusts, passing showers & 1-3’ of surge. Thursday/final Bertha update: weathertiger.substack.com/p/tropical-s...
weathertiger.substack.com
Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 23rd
Bertha is scraping the western Gulf Coast with modest wind, rain, and surge impacts.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
#TropicalStormBertha is producing bands of showers with 40-50 mph wind gusts from eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, plus 1-3’ feet of elevated tides. #Bertha should slowly wind down as it scrapes the Central/Western Gulf Coast through tomorrow afternoon. Full Wednesday update:
weathertiger.substack.com
Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 22nd
Bertha is dawdling along the Central Gulf Coast, producing generally modest impacts.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
As expected, #TropicalStormBertha is peaking out in strength this morning as it makes a close brush past the Florida Panhandle, bringing gusty bands as it does. Your full Tuesday details on #Bertha’s wind, surge, and rain impacts from #Florida to #Texas:
weathertiger.substack.com
Tropical Storm Bertha Update for July 21st
Bertha is brushing the Florida Panhandle with gusty bands, but rain will continue to be intermittent as the tropical storm approaches the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
#TropicalDepressionTwo is adrift in the NE Gulf, and could become TS #Bertha today. Will potential Bertha measure up to its canonical sobriquet of “big?” Not especially. Discussing all the rain, surge, wind, and tornado impacts of #TD2, such as they are: weathertiger.substack.com/p/weathertig...
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger Tropical Depression Two Impacts Forecast for July 20th
TD 2 is a rainmaker from west-central Florida to eastern Louisiana into midweek.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
#TropicalDepressionTwo has gotten a bit better organized overnight, but is still struggling against dry air and shear. Likely to become Tropical Storm #Bertha today, but rainfall along #Florida Gulf Coast remains main impact. Full #TD2 forecast and discussion out around noon.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
#Invest91L in the eastern Gulf is organizing and NHC development odds are now 80%. Advisories/watches are likely to begin later today, and I'll have my forecast after those go out. In the meantime, #Florida can expect showers and storms today along the Panhandle and Peninsula Gulf Coast.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
The NHC odds of a Gulf convective blob becoming a tropical depression are up to 30%, but the odds of it causing a rainy weekend and beyond for #Florida are higher. If you have outdoor plans over the next few days, beware of blob. Weekend forecast here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/major-blob...
weathertiger.substack.com
Major Blob Alert: WeatherTiger's Hurricane Watch for July 17th
A dollop of Gulf convection will keep Florida wet into next week and has an outside chance at modest tropical development.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Each computer forecast model has strengths and weaknesses, but with so many new models plus AI getting in the mix recently, which should you trust for accurate hurricane forecasts? The 2026 WeatherTiger Hurricane Model Power Rankings are out today, rating 'em all from F-tier to S-tier.
weathertiger.substack.com
Next Top Model '26: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for July 15th
Counting down WeatherTiger's 2026 hurricane computer model power rankings.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
U.S. weather this week is a one-if-by-land situation: our fair country will be free from the tyranny of hurricane threats, yet oppressed by excessive heat. Latest on the swelter and when the next tropical system might develop in this week’s Independence Day (and “Independence Day”)-themed column.
weathertiger.substack.com
To the Gulf Stream Waters: WeatherTiger's Weekly Hurricane Column for July 1st
A disturbance winding down east of Florida means no tropical threats to the holiday weekend, though it'll be hot enough to make King George III go mad.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Hyper-mega El Nino 2026 is here, and all other tropical storms must bow before it. But how will a potential record El Nino influence the 2026 #hurricane season and beyond? This week's column looks at how El Nino modulates development, and checks on the odds of close to home activity in early July.
weathertiger.substack.com
Heated Rivalry: WeatherTiger Weekly Column for June 24th
How will a potential record El Nino influence the 2026 hurricane season and beyond?
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Taking the scenic, overland route, #TropicalStormArthur will grind along the Gulf Coast today before moving inland overnight. The key impact of #Arthur is heavy rainfall and flash flood risks from #Texas to #Florida through Friday. Forecast, numerous Holy Grail references here:
weathertiger.substack.com
Rain Check: WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast for June 17th
Arthur is a flash and river flooding threat to the central Gulf Coast and inland Deep South.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
#PotentialTropicalCyclone1, currently over south #Texas, may become #TropicalStormArthur in the NW Gulf tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will continue through Friday across the Gulf Coast. Tuesday forecast discussion for #PTC1 here:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 Forecast for June 16th
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will bring several more days of heavy rainfall and localized flood threats along the Gulf Coast east to the Florida Panhandle.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Earthquakes have sprung to an 1-0 lead over tropical cyclones on the Gulf Coast. While a whole lotta shakin’ has been going on, there's no indication that the Tropics will send out shock waves soon. This week's column takes a look at development chances, seasonal outlooks, and oceanic crust rocks:
weathertiger.substack.com
Earthquake Weather: WeatherTiger Weekly Hurricane Column for June 10th
The earth shifts, but the skies remain mostly quiet in week 2 of hurricane season.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
#HurricaneSeason2026, like 2026 as a whole, is off to a sloppy start. Our first weekly #hurricane column of the year has the forecast details, plus affirms our Paint Pledge against the AI slop clogging the arteries of society. Sign up at the link to get all our columns in your inbox this season.
weathertiger.substack.com
The No-Slop Zone: WeatherTiger Weekly Column for June 3rd
High wind shear is keeping it messy in the Gulf and Caribbean as the season kicks off.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
WeatherTiger's May Hurricane Season outlook is out now, and continues to be cautiously optimistic news for the continental U.S. coastline. Our landfall risk model projects around a 65% chance of 1-2 U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2026, and about 30% lower net landfall activity than an average season.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
WeatherTiger’s first outlook for the 2026 hurricane season is here, and it's a refreshing break from the mostly active forecasts of the last decade. Our landfall risk model projects net Accumulated Cyclone Energy near CONUS of 2.5-3 units, about 40% less than the 1900-2025 mean.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Serious numbercrunching going on at WeatherTiger World HQ today in preparation for the release of our initial outlook for the 2026 Hurricane Season! Look for WeatherTiger's forecast to be out this Wednesday. It may even contain some rare good news for the year ahead for once...
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
The NHC post-analysis report for #HurricaneMelissa is out now. Estimated maximum sustained winds were nudged upwards to 190 mph at #Melissa's peak, tying Hurricane Allen (1980) for the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Winter is back in #ExtremeNorthernFlorida and it's going to stick around for awhile. The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:
substack.com
Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger)
After a brief reprieve, winter is back in Extreme Northern Florida, where temps will struggle into the 40s this afternoon ahead of a bitterly cold and breezy night with lows in the lower 20s. The Nati...
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
While #Florida will not see snow/ice from this weekend's massive Winter Storm Xenawarriorprincess (name unofficial), a historic cold pattern follows. #Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Saw the rarest of winter beasts on snowy I-10 this morning: three FL Dept. of Transportation snowplows. They do exist! Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida: www.facebook.com/weathertiger...
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Snow falling in the western #Panhandle with rain/snow line roughly from Santa Rosa Beach to just west of Marianna as of 8am ET/7 CT. Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Saturday Night Florida Snow Update: Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia. My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:
substack.com
Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger)
Saturday Night Florida Snow Update: Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, as a combination of an Arctic front and weak Gulf low looks to probably change that cold rain over to a few ho...
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Very cold morning in #Florida, with #Tallahassee dropping sub-20 for the 1st time since Dec. 2022 and rural upper 20s for south to Lake Okeechobee. Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
North #Florida, are you ready for the transcendent winter magic of 37-degree rain? Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:
weathertiger.substack.com
Florida Potential Winter Storm Update for January 15
Weighing the odds that the Panhandle ekes out a little snow on Sunday morning.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Do you believe? I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Now is the winter of our social media #content, as chatter ripples of southern winter storm threats. Does the jet stream pattern ahead check the necessary boxes to square the circle and bring #Florida winter whimsy back in 2026? My monthly off-season newsletter has much-needed historical context:
weathertiger.substack.com
Fire and Ice: The WeatherTiger Newsletter for January 2026
A deep dive into Florida winter weather, past and present.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Matt is right on the money. This is a vindictive attack on public safety.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
People are saying that Russ Vought's brain is a solid chunk of lead. Many people are saying this.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week. The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash. Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Hurricane Melissa Update for October 28th
Melissa ties the record for strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall, devastating Jamaica.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity. Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda. Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Forecast for October 27th
Melissa is on track to be the most severe hurricane landfall in Jamaica, and one of the worst anywhere in the Atlantic Basin on record.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday. New forecast discussion out later this morning.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida. We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands. My latest on this potentially intense storm:
weathertiger.substack.com
WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast for October 23th
Melissa, churning in the Caribbean, is a major hurricane threat to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, but continues to pose little risk to the continental U.S.
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WeatherTiger @weathertiger.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms. The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
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