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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 11h

like strong mid/upper level winds, increasing the #Tornado threat. It’s one way in which this record shattering El Niño is making its presence felt. And that presence will only grow through severe weather and rain in the South and California this fall and winter. Yo soy El Niño everyone!

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 11h

And so it begins… The Infusion of El Niño in our weather patterns. In this case its impact on #isaias Notice the early season invigorated subtropical jet courtesy of #elnino This will both weaken Isaias as it makes landfall, but also infuse it with extratropical characteristics… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12h

(Although all set ups are different, Milton and Sandy come to mind) *This animation does use real wind data, but the tornadoes are added to illustrate where the greatest risk is. They are not meant to forecast exactly where the tornadoes will be.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12h

as the mid-latitude jet stream increases. And it gives the transitioning tropical storm system a different character. It causes the wind field at the core to expand, making the storm larger, empowering the outer bands with more wind, at the expense of the core winds which weaken…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12h

That will create more cross winds/ shear, weaken #Isaias, but embolden spin in the outer bands. This injection of energy will power strong #tornadoes on the storm’s east side at landfall in the #Florida Panhandle and beyond into the Southeast. Not all storms have this, but it’s more common in fall..

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12h

Blue are the mid-level winds associated with the jet stream. You’ll notice that as Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast the blue arrows increase and the low-level vs mid-levels winds vigorously cross (X) each other. That’s the jet stream (blue arrows) being infused into the tropical system…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12h

We have an unusually High #Tornado Threat from #Hurricane Isaias This movie uses real data, to help educate on why this storm poses an enhanced risk. Notice the yellow vs blue arrows. Yellow are the winds just below the clouds, it’s the low level wind flow (jet) around and feeding into the storm…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 21h

EXTREMELY RARE: Tropical Storm Rachel threatens Southern California this weekend! While all eyes are on #Isaias, will there be a #California Hurricane? Not quite! This weekend Tropical Storm #Rachel will likely make a direct hit on #SoCal and the Desert SW. Thanks, El Niño!

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Tornadoes are often the forgotten threat in #hurricane landfalls, but for Isaias it may be memorable. From #louisiana to #mississippi to Alabama the #Florida Panhandle and #Georgia

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Strong SE wind at the surface, and fast SW winds aloft. That causes spin to the North/ East of the center of circulation. Also, storms that transition from Tropical to extra tropical quickly, due to strong winds/ dry air aloft, use that extra energy to power stronger tornadoes. As we saw in Milton

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

🌪️ Enhanced Tornado Potential 🌪️ #Isaias will likely be a bigger than average #tornado producer. That’s because as it approaches the #Gulf Coast, strong upper level winds along with a trough will catch/ merge with the storm circulation, producing strong cross winds in the low levels vs upper levels..

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

BUT shear will play a major factor. Shear can be Boom or Bust! We discuss what that means and how much shear will weaken the #Gulf #Storm as it moves onshore!

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

🌀 New: Tropical Storm #Isaias is now forecast to reach 110 mph, 1 mph short of a MAJOR Cat 3 #Hurricane and the track has shifted slightly east, closer to the Google AI model tracks, putting the #Florida panhandle in the most severe part of the storm… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Climate folks… please give this a follow! A new climate comms initiative with Katherine Hayhoe, Bernadette Woods Placky, and Dana Fisher

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Due to this transition it may preserve a significant amount of its wind, spread over a larger - less concentrated area - and pose a bigger than normal #Tornado 🌪️ threat. Biggest impacts #NewOrleans #Louisiana to #Biloxi #Mobile #Florida panhandle #Pensacola & #PanamaCityFL late Friday to Saturday.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Stormwill peak mid-late week in central #Gulf . BUT: #Isaias runs into a wall of wind shear 💨 and should weaken as it heads towards landfall on the Northern Gulf Coast. Still important impacts are likely. It will make a fast transition to a post tropical cyclone as it interacts with the jet.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

🌀 Tropical Timeline 🌀 Conditions are ripe now, storm will form fast. Next 2-3 Days: Intensification, perhaps rapid. A #hurricane, maybe even strong (major) is possible under very low shear and record hot water temps…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

strong shear should dominate. So it’s possible we get a scare initially from a formidable system - maybe even the first #hurricane of the season? - only to see it weaken near landfall as it hits a wall of shear. #Isaias #Invest92L #florida (Data: Oct 4th OISST 1981-2026)

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I just did an analysis, and ~40% of the Gulf is record hot, 70% top 3. So: The system has a chance of solid strengthening in the next 2-3 days while it’s in the southern #Gulf, incubated from shear, over very hot water. BUT when the system gets into the Northern Gulf, despite record hot water there…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

🌀Luckily there will be a lot of wind shear along the northern Gulf Coast later this week, because the Gulf is - by far - the hottest it’s been on record for this time of year. *BUT hot 💧 is only 1 factor, wind shear rules the roost!*…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Certain regions have more than others. But this is the whole globe

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The water vapor concentration in the atmosphere may be approx 13% higher this winter than around 1950. More moisture = heavier downpours.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

This means floodier-floods in spots, on top of an already extreme base. I am using the European model seasonal ensemble (Copernicus data) to plot winter water vapor through the ERA record (standardized the ECMWF forecast to the ERA5 1993–2016 baseline).

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Someone asked me how water vapor would respond to El Nino and record temps early next year? Clearly it seemed the globe should be in record territory. And according to the Euro ensembles we are - about 3-4% above record water vapor in Dec, Jan, Feb!…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Does anyone have a bat phone to the University of Maine? We are gonna need a bigger Y-Axis. STAT! #elnino

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 02/10/2026

Europe didnt just experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2026. It experienced a summer where multiple climate extremes reinforced each other. First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Undoubtedly this event will be severely studied to ascertain the degree to which increasing heat content stored in our oceans helped amplify this event, and hopefully give us a window into future events. Will escalations like this become the norm? #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Calculations show 2026 is 3.8 sigma/deviation from the mean of the El Niño distribution. This may grow past 4 sigma by November/ December…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Extremely unlikely, but impressively predicted well by our seasonal models. But sure, my Grey Swan assessment is subjective. So I want to quantify this. How deviant is this event using September SST anomalies in the 3.4 region compared to past El Niños.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I’ve argued that this El Niño event is likely the most deviant climate event we’ve witnessed. A magnitude I don’t think any climate scientist could have foreseen a year ago, even given our rapidly warming climate. Perhaps a Grey Swan event?

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

1st time in satellite era, and likely much longer. Let’s keep the streak going! 🤞 (speaking to you, Gulf) Thanks, #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Another day, another record. The globe just broke the record for the warmest Sea Surface Temperature anomaly. Thanks, #ElNino and Carbon pollution (Copernicus ERA data)

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Ecological impacts, global mean surface temperature, etc… so the metric you use depends on what you are trying to communicate. I’ll also add: the relative index obscures the climate warming signal because it basically subtracts it. So it’s not ideal in all cases.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A changing climate. 90% of heat retained in the climate system is stored in our oceans. That is now surfacing, and being released in our 2026 event. It’s why it’s a much more impressive warming of the east Pacific and that heat does have tangible impacts to more fuel for heat waves, heavier rains…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

How relatively warm the event is tells us the expected intensity of the atmospheric response to the event. So this year will prob be on par (a little stronger) than 1997 and 1982. But there’s more to it. The raw ocean anomalies (and subsurface heat) have their own story to tell. It’s a story of

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Relative (RONI) tells us how the event compares with the other warming ocean basins. And puts it into perspective - how warm is the El Niño to the other oceans at the time of the event. And here we see it’s much closer: bsky.app/profile/raro...

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

There’s a debate going on over on X. Which metric to use when talking El Niño. It’s complicated. Let’s start here. This is the excess heat available to each event. Clearly 2026 is far ahead (32% more excess heat than 1997). But that doesn’t tell the whole story. The reason we use the relative index

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The East Pacific has been supercharged this #hurricane season, and is now in record ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) territory. It is expected to stay busy the next couple of weeks. If it accumulates another 50-60 units, it will break the record set in 2018. My guess is it probably will. #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It’s official: It’s now the hottest El Niño ever recorded and we are still 2 months away from peak, with nowhere to go but UP! So what does it mean for winter across Florida & the southern US? Here’s the details… (records go back 170+ years) #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Here’s how much the Eastern Pacific has changed since January. The Equatorial region warms/ cools due to El Niño La Niña cycles. ENSO 3.4 has warmed ~4C since Jan.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

For years 90% of excess heat being retained by our climate system - due to the blanket of carbon pollution - has been going into the oceans. Much of that ends up in the West Pacific Warm Pool, so when the trades slacken and the Pacific rearranges itself, that heat comes back to haunt us. #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It’s astonishing how far ahead the 2026 El Niño is. The red line is 2026. The other warmest El Niños are the colored lines. It’s not even playing in the same league. Some of this is of course due to this natural El Niño cycle on top of long-term ocean warming… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

That means there’s still 2 months left of intensification in the 2026 event. And all meteorological signs show it will continue. It’s headed past the record, and to heights we’d never imagined it could reach. #elniño #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

JUST IN: Today El Niño Broke its Record Hottest Temperature Ever! 🥵 Today the El Niño region surpassed 2015 for the highest temp ever measured in the El Niño (3.4) region. It comes 2 months earlier than typical peak (late Nov/ Dec)…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Busy, busy around the World now. #Nolo near Hawaii, #Polo near #Cabo and #Noreaster near NYC

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Coral scientist @BillPrecht : Most of the loss of coral worldwide is due to climate change. Climate change is the existential threat to coral: youtu.be/sZBeEeV8P_g?...

youtu.be

Harnessing Inspiration to Protect Coral Reefs | Mr. William F. Precht | TEDxSUNY Oswego

YouTube video by TEDx Talks

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