iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Visit mindemokrati.se if you want to try it out. I know this is not your typical biology post (and that I might be slightly biased) but I actually think this is a great idea to promote more transparent politics. I tried it myself and, turns out, the very party I was leaning towards came out on top.

mindemokrati.se

minDemokrati – Oberoende valkompass

Testa en ny valkompass! På minDemokrati sveper du anonymt på tagna riksdagsbeslut och matchar med partier utifrån hur de röstat – inte vad de lovar.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Ernst (who also happens to be my second cousin) circumvents this problem by letting YOU vote on the very same decisions as the politicians. Then, he simply maps the agreement between you and the different parties, helping you elect the party that best aligns with your views in practice.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Are you voting in the Swedish Election? You know how political actors might say/signal one thing and then do the opposite? This, of course, muddies the waters for tools that are supposed to help you make an informed decision. But fear not! A PhD student @ Stockholm Uni has the solution. Read more ↓

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Mats Ittonen @matsittonen.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

New review: we discuss how the continuous nature of insect diapause induction and termination responses (which are often seen as binary threshold decisions) offers phenological robustness and evolutionary flexibility that can reduce vulnerability to climate change–driven seasonal timing mismatches.

sciencedirect.com

Rethinking diapause timing thresholds in a warming world

Diapause lets insects synchronize their life cycles with seasonal environments, but climate change challenges its effectiveness by reshaping thermal r…

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Interested in insect phenology? @matsittonen.bsky.social and and I argue that population-level diapause responses, which form smooth distributions despite binary individual decisions, are key to understanding climate change responses and range shifts. Just out in #COIS: doi.org/10.1016/j.co...

doi.org

Redirecting

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

Just skimmed through it, but this looks like really fun and interesting read! With pictures of the game team and all!

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

Hi all! I've been inactive here for a while (all that's going on in the world kind of saturated my bandwidth), so maybe the algorithm won't favor me. But! I'm curious if anyone of you have been using/thinking about using explainable AI method (xAI) for identifying complex ecological patterns.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

Environmental cues indicating abundant resources reduce the difference between inbred and non-inbred beetle lines in finding those resources, and thus the fitness gap. We argue that environmental predictability could be masking the effects of otherwise deleterious alleles via behavioral plasticity.

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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

I was corresponding with a scientist last week who was skeptical that a biased estimate could be better than an unbiased one. I cited the usual reasons. And here is Numberphile right on time with a new episode about Stein's paradox: www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUQw...

youtube.com

The Stein Paradox - Numberphile

YouTube video by Numberphile

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Sorry for not citing you guys! By the way, if you have the opportunity to include more TPC functions, the LRF (described here: doi.org/10.1093/aesa... , not orig. ref) and flexTPC (doi.org/10.1101/2024...) have very interpretable parameters and seemingly good properties. Worth a look.

doi.org

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Hey. I honestly missed that, would have been relevant when developing our own stuff (noted for future). My point I think similar to yours. We are not that many doing this as of now (i.e., not that many refs, but I'm clearly not the guy to ask ;). I actually meant when I said the paper was cool!

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

Just came across this, cool paper! Thought I should mention we've also been fitting TPCs using Bayesian methods for years (e.g. doi.org/10.1111/ele....). We've also developed some pipelines for TPC inference from less typical data: doi.org/10.1073/pnas... For future reference ;)

doi.org

PNAS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...

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Fredrik Jutfelt 🐠 @jutfelt.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

How do fish evolve to tolerate higher temperatures, and are there trade-offs? We explore these questions in our new paper @natclimate.nature.com led by Anna Andreassen @annahandreassen.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧪🐟🦑

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David Berger @dbergerbiol.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Models of pest impact predict that climate warming will alter growth rates and distributions of insect pests. 🐞🌱🐞🌱🐞🌱🐞🌱🐞🌱🐞🌱🐞🌱 How do trait-specific evolutionary responses affect predictions? Have a look at our new paper rdcu.be/d6G2u in @naturecomms.bsky.social to find out. Short summary below.

rdcu.be

Life-history adaptation under climate warming magnifies the agricultural footprint of a cosmopolitan insect pest

Nature Communications - Current statistical projections of pest impact under climate change neglect the role of rapid genetic adaptation. Here the authors show that evolutionary responses in pest...

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

Quantifying temperature’s effect on #diapause #termination requires fitting #TPCs to binary biological data. In our new paper, out now in #PNAS, we show how to do this, revealing the sequential nature of diapause termination and post-diapause development. doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

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Nicolas Mouquet @nmouquet.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

The Global Ecology starter pack is now curated! ✨ and some slots are open 😊 Studying global biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, or conservation across terrestrial and marine realms ? 📚 Published in these fields? 👉 You are welcome to join ! just reply to be added. go.bsky.app/V6tN4cv 🧪🌐🌍🦤🦑

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Nothing published on the topic yet but working on it! Would like to be added if I qualify :)

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Johnsen et al.’s work is a great case study in how mechanistic models + Occam’s razor can reveal underlying truths. It shows that even when data are sparse, combining constraints with inference can produce valuable insights.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

In signal processing, methods to reconstruct under-sampled signals by promoting sparsity has been used for quite a while now. And this has led to some very impressive decompression methods, where signal is seemingly squeezed partly out of thin air (check this: web.archive.org/web/20160120...)

web.archive.org

Bell Labs Invents Lensless Camera | MIT Technology Review

A new class of imaging device with no lens and just a single light sensitive sensor could revolutionise optical, infrared and millimetre wave imaging

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

I think biologists are often sceptical towards this approach. The mantra “correlation does not imply causation” is deeply rooted in many of us. Perhaps this is why this paper by Johnsen et al. has remained under-cited for decades. But I think there is great power in approaches like this!

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

As a result, the curves from the previous figure emerge. The three distinct phases are just a consequence of picking the sparsest solution to the problem (see the image). This (Occam’s razor) combined with the constraints on the reaction norm—the mechanistic insight—got close to the truth!

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Well, they don’t estimate the curves directly. They just observe insect emergence in a variable thermal environment, and iteratively tweak curve parameters in search of the best explanatory model, under some constrains (the main one being how the shape of the curve can vary, see figure).

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Rewind to 1997. Three researchers publish a paper on the same topic, with the figure below (doi.org/10.2307/2404...). Very reminiscent of our results. However, this paper has remained in relative obscurity, only racking up 15 citations to date, despite being on a quite popular topic. Why?

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Quick background: we did a pretty laborious experiment to empirically determine thermal reaction norms for diapause termination in a butterfly. The result was the two curves below. Also, we found some signs of a third reaction norm for diapause induction that might look something like the red line.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Combining some mechanistic knowledge and Occam's razor appears to me to be a very powerful tool for getting closer to the truth! Let me show an example that I believe is related to this, which I found while writing my last published paper. It's on the underlying temperature-dependence of diapause 🤓❄️

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Good stuff. Late to the party, but would like to be added if still possible!

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Cool study! I wonder if it is possible that (much of) the interesting density-dependent effects are consequences of a statistical artifact. An extreme case serves as an example: if some place is unoccupied, individuals later observed must be classified as immigrants. Can anyone enlighten me?

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Brian J. Enquist @bjenquist.bsky.social · 10/11/2024

Here is a starter pack for scientists and others interested in trait-based ecology and evolution. Still trying to find everyone here. Please let me know if you would like to be added to the list! go.bsky.app/PThMXeX 🧪🌎🌾

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Brandon Bishop @brandontbishop.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Changing the solid Earth's temperature is *really* hard. Day-to-night temperature variations, what we're used to, stop being relevant at about half a meter depth--this is why animals burrow. (Link for figs: geothermal-energy-journal.springeropen.com/articles/10.... )

Soil temperature for hottest day in Jamshedpur, India as a function of depth plotted at the surface, 5 cm (about 2 inches), 10 cm (~4 inches), 20 cm (~8 inches), 30 cm (~12 inches), and 40 cm (~16 inches) below the surface. The day to night variation at the surface goes from 27°C at ~7:30 am (just at sunrise) to 57°C at ~2 pm, for a difference of 30°C between high and low. The difference between high and low temperature decreases with depth, and 5 cm below the surface it's already down to a difference of 21°C. By 40 cm below the surface, the difference between high and low temperature is a less than a degree. It's about 36.5°C all day at that depth.

Soil temperature for coldest day in Jamshedpur, India as a function of depth plotted at the surface, 5 cm (about 2 inches), 10 cm (~4 inches), 20 cm (~8 inches), 30 cm (~12 inches), and 40 cm (~16 inches) below the surface. The day to night variation at the surface goes from 13°C at ~9 am (just at sunrise) to 37°C at ~3 pm, for a difference of 24°C between high and low. The difference between high and low temperature decreases with depth, and 5 cm below the surface it's already down to a difference of 16°C. By 40 cm below the surface, the difference between high and low temperature is a less than a degree. It's about 23°C all day at that depth.

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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

A starter pack of people working on thermal biology or metabolic theory. Presently a very short list, but I know y'all are out there - please tell me if you'd like to be added! (Or if you'd like to be taken off) go.bsky.app/nHLZbD

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Wow! Thank you, that just made my evening :)

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Thanks! I found that too. Yeah, me as well. Don't know if I should prioritize making one right now, though, hehe...

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Feels good to commit fully to migrating here. Anyone got any tips for how to best manage your account to find relevant stuff? For example, does anyone know of any good "feeds" for evolutionary ecology/macro ecology/thermal biology/etc.?

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Thanks for helping with the migration! I'd like to be added to this list.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

Phew, that’s a long thread! Big thanks to the coauthors, Philipp Lehmanns lab group, and especially Philip Süess (picture) who did a lot of the heavy lifting co-leading this paper with me. Without him none of this would have been possible.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

However, diapause #initiation is another story. We find it is plausible that initiation has its own, third, thermal reaction norm (as proposed by Johnsen et al. 1997, see Fig). We standardized initiation conditions, and more studies (e.g., doi.org/10.1016/j.cr...) are needed.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

Of course, Košťál (and others) were well aware of this, referring to quiescence as an “exogenously” controlled state (I’m still impressed with how clairvoyant his 2006 paper is). Our only addition is that #development de facto #resumes immediately after termination (c.f. figure).

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

Revisiting Košťál’s classic figure, we see that in our system, and potentially many others, diapause #quiescence is not a distinct #developmental state. I.e., correlated responses (e.g. #cold-tolerance) can be high while developmental supression is null.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

We believe that this #framework generalizes to many other systems. E.g., a seemingly “spontaneous” diapause termination might have a very flat and wide TPC, causing apparent temperature-invariance. So please try this approach in your model system!

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

This could potentially act to #synchronize spring #emergence across spatially heterogeneous environments, since cold #microclimates will have rapid termination and slow post-diapause development, and vice-versa in warm microclimates.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

Additionally, we could show that post-diapause development follows a typical TPC, and what’s more, that this development follows immediately after diapause has terminated. In other words, individuals jump from one (cold, right-skewed) TPC, to another (normal) in an instant.

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

We found that diapause termination rates seem to follow this weird, #right-skewed, TPC shape. But does this TPC quantified under #constant conditions translate to novel #fluctuating environments (like our previous work on development rate TPC’s shows)? Yes! (At least in the lab.)

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Loke von Schmalensee @vonschmalensee.bsky.social · 02/10/2024

Via some #Bayesian hierarchical #nonlinear modelling, we can force the parameters of these cumulative probability functions (i.e., geometric mean rate, and its relative variance) to be dictated by an underlying TPC, which provides an extremely good fit to the data.

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