iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 33s

Con los resultados de las últimas, ese escaño 38 también se lo habría llevado el PSOE.

000

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 15h

Warialona was too complex because we hate the letter W

000

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Casfetera 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇵🇸 @casfetera.bsky.social · 15h

Cada vez más incentivos para votar al PSOE.

65921

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Pedro Vallín @pvallin.bsky.social · 17h

Empezar los partidos marcando es bien.

1021658

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 17h

La comparación de 2019 me parece muy adecuada. Unos pocos meses antes, el ABC daba un 50% de voto a PP+Cs+Vox, y mayoría absolutísima. Y en cuanto se convocaron de verdad, pues...

010

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 17h

Hay seis debates electorales propuestos: tres cara a cara Sánchez-Feijóo, dos debates a 4 entre PP, PSOE, Vox y Frente Amplio/lo que sea, y el mítico de RTVE a 8 con todos los partidos con representación. Veremos a cuántos se apunta Feijóo, si a uno o a ninguno.

110

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 23h

Remember the last time polls gave the Spanish right over 50% of the vote

000

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Una de esas cosas que tengo clavada en la memoria es la última vez que las encuestas daban un 50% de intención de voto a la derecha.

003

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Ciudadano Caín @ciudacain.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Es como The Man in the High Castle pero dirigida por Mariano Ozores.

29330

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 04/10/2026

Trump: "We've gonna shove it up their ass ... They are a bunch of dumb son of a bitches" Remember when presidents had dignity? Here's a lowlight supercut from Trump's rally tonight in Ohio:

107858851697

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Bill Shea @billshea19.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This is batshit. This is vastly worse than any Biden decline. Trump has come unglued. He's a danger to the republic.

581220243

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Uno de mis grandes orgullos vitales es haber sido bloqueado por Hermann Tertsch y por Pablo Iglesias a la vez.

140

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Casfetera 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇵🇸 @casfetera.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Hay un cierto cachondeo con esto en X, donde las notas de la comunidad sugieren que los "testimonios" de los "pequeños propietarios" que presenta Junts han sido generados con IA. En uno de ellos "grandes tenedores" ha sido traducido, literalmente, como "grans forquilles". 😂

9260164

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Lo cual es probable que ocurra incluso si Aliança no se presenta, como han dejado caer.

040

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Y a caballo regalado no se le mira el diente. Las encuestas, Ceuta y Peinado ya estaban allí y seguirán estando en marzo o julio. Este tren pasa ahora.

010

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Lo de juicio y lo de Ceuta ya estaba. Esta es la oportunidad de que se hable de algo más, y un algo que casualmente es el principal problema de la población y el tema que más preocupa a sus votantes, existentes y potenciales.

110

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Thiago Ferrer Morini @tferrer.journa.host.ap.brid.gy · 02/10/2026

Yo es que cada vez que veo a Rufián dirigirse a Junts de esta manera me acuerdo de este meme

Meme del perro grande y perro chico: Perro grande: "ERC en el Congreso: SU ESTELADA ES UN BILLETE DE 50" - Perro chico: "ERC en el Parlament: senyor convergent jo li voto les retallades, si us plau no em anomeni botifler"

0113

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Emily @emilydawn.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

@hockeyviz.com I found some beautiful data viz for you

7142331025

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Espero que Sánchez lo repita constantemente en los próximos dos meses

010

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This is his one golden chance to unify his voters and fucus the debate on a wedge issue that splits the right, instead of allowing PP and Vox to do that to them, as it had happened until now. Better to die trying than get hopelessly swept away by a flood in 6 months.

030

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Bustinduy is already saying it: the next election will be a referendum about housing. Of course, the right will happily talk about migration and Ceuta. But polls show that every left-wing voter wants this bill, and *50%* of PP/Vox support regulations.

131

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Eduardo Bayón @eduardobayon.es · 01/10/2026

La política es un estado de ánimo

1156

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Last week, I would have given >95% of odds of right-wing victory. In this febrile mood, I think Sánchez will have a 20-30% chance of holding on. Which is the highest level I would have given him over the past 3 years, and higher than at any point in the next one. Better to go down swinging.

260

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Esto sí que es hacer campaña y lo demás son tonterías.

010

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Hoy por primera vez en varios años creo que la izquierda tiene una posibilidad real de ganar unas elecciones. Quizá no sea superior al 50%. Pero sí es mayor que el 0-5% que le daba hasta hace una semana.

000

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They haven't made a deal with the PP. And if they have, good luck, as recent polls show their voters have the same list of concerns as centre-left parties (Housing, economy) rather than centre-right (immigrants); and that they wants Sánchez as PM almost to a man.

010

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

!H 🇪🇺👊🏻 @eurhostia.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Feliz 1 de Octubre, catalans. Lástima que no saliera aquello de la república catalana, muy progresista frente a la atrasada España: donde los perros se iban a atar con longanizas y habría helado de postre para cenar todas las noches.

54613

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Honestly, I believe he now has the best chance to win he's had in three years. He now has One Big Topic to claw left-wing voters back from PP and abstention.

110

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Si Junts vota que no a los dos decretos mañana, yo voy avisando de la posibilidad creciente de unas elecciones a principios de diciembre con el tema de la vivienda como punto principal de los partidos del Gobierno.

220

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Robert Armstrong @robarmstrong.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

S&P 500 unchanged over three months -- with earnings expectations up and price/earnings multiples down. This is *exactly* what you would expect to happen when interestst rates are being driven higher by a mix of growth and inflation. Sometimes markets make sense.

1257

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Sounds good, nothing to worry about

000

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Creo que el discurso de Burnham ha ido bien

001

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

as a satire on so-called late stage capitalism how could one beat investors pouring a trillion into a company offering to wipe out humankind

1002201779

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

JWexTheSpa @jwsidders.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Putin is said to be an obsessive student of Russian history. He must be aware of what happened on the Eastern Front in 1917.

111

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

As long as he is Speaker. When the existing Congress is dimissed, he becomes Nobody, at which point he can't do anything. (There's a nightmare scenario but it's more complex than that and requires the Clerk risking a very serious legal mess by refusing to recognise democrats as congressmen-elect)

040

Reposted by Víctor Ventura

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

President Trump opposes deal that would open the Strait of Hormuz immediately. Holding out for diesel at $10 a gallon.

1321712412

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

In my case, I'd check whether republican turnout has fallen off a cliff in early voting. I think that's the key factor there - dems being very mobilised is to be expected, but the real question is whether the bottom will fall off for republicans or whether they will hold on by their fingertips.

010

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Perfectly fair. But yeah, this is just to say that, by late September, there are rumblings of something happening. Let's check back in late October.

010

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

And hey, maybe every single poll is overestimating democrats and republicans are running defensive campaign ads for the Senate in *Arkansas* because they have been fooled as well. But the margins are so huge that even a significant polling error can still deliver the House and the Senate.

100

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

The fact that there are serious polls showing republicans losing in Kansas, Idaho and Oklahoma, and that reputable pollsters show double-digit national leads for democrats, higher than Obama 2008, suggests that something might be happening.

210

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Hey, what Roland is saying is that polls (presidential approval, generic ballot, state-by-state races) look insanely blue. As in, all-time-highly blue, not just 'a lead' but like "landslide not seen since FDR" levels of blue, at this point. You can check it here: fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

200

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

2024 was sealed when there was a red wave during early voting, with registered republicans vastly outvoting democrats, and dems never recovered. You can get a picture of what's happening by mid-October, when most relevant states already have a sizeable share of votes already cast.

120

Víctor Ventura @vicvent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

People sort of memory-holed 2024. Back then, odds were 50/50, give or take a point (at which point Trump+1 is hardly an earth-shattering miss). Same for the house (which effectively ended up with an extremely narrow majority). Meanwhile everyone agreed that the Senate was likely Republican (bang-on)

110