iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

I'm glad to see this framing. You used to be able to graduate high school and leave so much stupid crap behind. Now with social media, it feels like the whole world is high school.

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 8h

They're big mad that he set them up by holding onto the security footage.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 18h

I looked at 24 vs 20 by county. It could be misleading because EV seems to report first in IN so there were things like temporary Blamilton County. Since most swing states were only 1-2% wins in 2020, I figured any slippage was be bad and what was happening in IN would happen in MI, WI, and PA.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 18h

I was tracking IN and KY results and knew Harris was in big trouble by 7:30 EST. Rural were a few points redder than 2020, suburbs were even or a couple points redder than 2020. There weren't a lot of returns from cities yet but those weren't an area where she was expected to overperform.

110

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I think he has the mind of a young teenager due to brain damage which explains everything from him not caring about the job, to his edgy dismissiveness to him paling around with the Rs (because it gets him a lot of attention).

110

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

It's funny that MAGA still drops the "thousands were turned away" line after pictures of underwhelming crowds circulate. We can clearly see they are booking smaller and smaller venues. The idea that a narcissist like Trump would artificially depress his crowd sizes doesn't pass the smell test.

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Nobody loathes Republican voters more than Republican politicians...

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I think they are even more angry at him for reappearing 24 hours into their little "Where's James" bit. They really thought they were going to ride that train somewhere.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Would've liked to see Evers give it one more run both for incumbancy advantage and for him to have a trifecta at long last. Can't blame him for wanting to move on, though.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Unfortunately, since this got traction I checked myself and you can remove one county or the other but not both. If you remove both it was a 53/47 victory for the R-aligned candidate.

020

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

All of their ads I've seen repeat the same 3 things that haven't worked for the last 4-6 months. Repeating the same things that aren't working more often isn't going to move the needle for them.

030

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Yep. And an obligatory, VPAP is awesome.

160

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

On that latter point, IIRC, in the WI-SC race last year, you could have removed Milwaukee and Dane counties and it still would have been a win for us.

3210

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

2 things: 1. The "firewall" thing needs to stop. It's only a thing where voting behavior is such that EV is really blue and ED is really red. Which brings me to... 2. Dems won ED for GOV and LT-GOV races in 2025 and lost by 2 points for AT-GEN. There's no signs that a red ED will save them.

1110

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I've started doing the laugh reaction to all of the right-wing slop on Facebook so the algorithm keeps feeding me more right-wing slop; but especially Anthony Constantino posts for some reason. That guy is cringey to an extent that puts him in the same league as Vivek Ramaswamy.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

TBF, my IN and KY analysis told me Harris was in big trouble by 7:15-7:30 EST. She was a few points behind Biden in rural counties and even or a couple points behind in suburban counties. Urban counties hadn't reported much but there was no reason to expect an overperformance there.

050

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

KY-06 and IN-05 (margin at least) will be good early indicators of how the night's going. The 4-way IN-SOS race is too wonky to infer anything from.

030

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I've started laughing at any right-wing slop post on Facebook which I think has told the algorithm to feed me more right-wing slop.

150

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

If you look at the rate he's getting more hateful and the trajectory of his crowd sizes, its very possible that by Election Day, his rallies are just him screaming the n-word at 25 people in a park shelter in West Virginia or Northern Alabama.

020

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This is why fuel tax suspensions are glonzo type stuff. They cut maybe 20-30 cents from the price of fuel when normal fluctuations are in a wider band than that.

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If words don't mean anything anymore, the Dems should put forth a Social Democratic agenda and call it Democratic Capitalism. Say anyone who is against the agenda is against democracy and capitalism.

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I have a slightly different, more cynical take. I think he heard about this book from some right-wing book ban list, bought the book, and then made up this backstory. I think it's fishy how often these people find themselves in these situations that confirm their priors.

030

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The DCCC is now spending it's enture chest on NE-03 and AL-04.

030

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I feel like a lot of people fall into the "at base Iazy" category. They think that "both sides are the same" makes them sound smart without actually knowing anything. Plus it's a somewhat non-confrontational stance that prevents them from having to engage in any difficult discussions with anyone.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I mean if they are just going to repeat the same three things they've been repeating since the Spring but just more often, then no, their money probably won't go very far.

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

It would be interesting see a split of "suburbs" between Long Island and Westchester/Orange.

020

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Wasn't Elliott Page literally in the movie they were all bitching about two months ago?

031

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Yeah, you and I probably aren't getting that level of grace in our lives...

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I think she did open a lead at some point. Most reputable polls found her with a lead during that time. I think Biden's debate performance and the debacle that followed made Dems look weak/incompetent. She couldn't put enough distance between her and that mess (not that she easily could as VP).

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It was way more than you. It was all over the hellsite (I didn't cross over until Dec. 2024) and all over Reddit. Looking back, our best polling was probably close to Labor Day then things slowly slipped. I remember the last NBC poll was 49/49. Hispanic polling was atrocious for us all along.

110

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I'm glad someone else remembers there was a LOT of polling unskewing/denial in 2024.

120

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

My local Mayor race is 3-way and officially non-partisan but there is a clear MAGA candidate. I keep trying to figure out which of the other two candidates is the best bet to keep from splitting the non-MAGA vote.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I'm managing expectations knowing that more likely than not, that R turnout percent surges once in-person early voting starts. However, if we were to pull off a narrow victory in FL, we would need a combination of a turnout differential and pursuation. It's good to see signs of the former.

020

Reposted by Verat Chao

derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

seeing conservative men debate how to dress online is very funny. can't dress up or wear interesting casualwear bc you've made any visible interest in dress to be a sign of homosexuality. but you feel the need to dress better bc you've linked dress to respectability. a prison of your own making.

11888171014

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I think that some of this ties into rebuilding state capacity but also having some imagination. The federal government is a powerful machine when its efforts are directed. If you really want to do something badly enough, a lot of times it can be done.

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This is a huge frsutration of mine. It was tough to see Trump taking credit for prescription drug price cuts that were possible because of Biden's IRA. The time between the passage of the IRA and price negotiations taking effect is almost as long as the US involvement in WWII. Like come on...

110

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This is true of him, Miller, and Hegseth.

020

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Yeah, I have a hard time believing that Maine voters 100 miles to the east are going to hang on to fake moderate Susan Collins if Vermont voters are getting rid of Phil Scott, who is probably the closest thing to a moderate Republican that still exists in this country.

120

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

They've mostly been repeating the same 3 things (something socialism, sonething trans, something Hasan) for four months. In that time, the polling has kept moving away from them. If they had something better, given that voting is getting underway, you think that they would've deployed it by now.

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Thete are so many Republicans that are friendly toward Talerico and Ossoff that you have to think they are tired of this shit too.

040

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I told y'all Idaho is in play. Do y'all really think I would fly to Idaho if I didn't feel confident it was flipping?

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The party is inseparable from Trump this time around in a way it wasn't in 2018.

130

Reposted by Verat Chao

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 01/10/2026

i think cox should spend less time weeping about polarization and more time working to convince his co-partisans not to abandon pluralism and liberal democracy

1583972509

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

"I believe in genetics." We know...

010

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The dude is also just cringey in general so not the kind of person who is going to easily win over someone who is already on the fence about his skin color.

030

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It's funny that the no one in the GOP can say anything nice about Paxton. They all say some form of "I know he sucks but you should vote for him anyway."

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

CA being the lowest is *chefs kiss*

110

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Her resentment and hatred toward the movement and its adherents sounds like someone separating from a cult. It sounds like she can't face that she fell for an obvious con and now it's everyone else's fault.

160

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Maybe the best way to parse it is a lack of security. I'm not sure that would show up in specific questions about individual conditions. This is just my example but I think there are overall sentiments that a bunch of pointed questions don't capture well.

000

Verat Chao @veratchao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Personally, I'm doing better than ever financially. However, I have a lot of anxiety about the direction of the country and in turn the long-term direction of the economy. If AI takes tens of millions of jobs, I'm going to feel the negative effects, even if my job is not one of them.

100