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10 it is. No swap will occur.

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Easy lottery rule of thumb, factoring in the pick swap: If NO’s card comes out of one of Tatum's envelopes before MIL’s does, the spot he's currently announcing is where the Bucks will draft. If MIL’s card comes out before NO's, same thing: that's where the Bucks will draft.

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Why can't they swap back to 7 since NO can get that pick? Because that means MIL would have drawn a top-4 pick. Drawing is for the top 4 only, and everything after is reverse standings order. So MIL would displace one of the worst 9 teams, and everyone moves back a spot. NO to 8.

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Why can't they get 5 or 6? Because neither they nor the Pelicans can get that selection.

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Reposting these since it's lotto day. Bucks' true lottery odds factoring in Pelicans/Hawks pick swap: 1 - 0% 2 - 0.5% 3 - 1.1% 4 - 2.1% 5 - 0% 6 - 0% 7 - 0% 8 - 5.4% 9 - 5.6% 10 - 61.7% 11 - 21.5% 12 - 1.7% 13 - <0.1% 14 - <0.1%

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Bucks' actual lottery odds factoring in Pelicans/Hawks pick swap: 1 - 0% 2 - 0.5% 3 - 1.1% 4 - 2.1% 5 - 0% 6 - 0% 7 - 0% 8 - 5.4% 9 - 5.6% 10 - 61.7% 11 - 21.5% 12 - 1.7% 13 - <0.1% 14 - <0.1%

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

As always, all these numbers factor in the swap rights that New Orleans dealt to Atlanta. These are the chances the Bucks will pick at any given spot in June based on May 10th's lottery drawing.

Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Once again, for those mad they finished ahead of Chicago, here are what their odds would have been (including the NO-DAL tiebreaker) if they cleared the Bulls for 9th. They'd have had a 5.3% chance of a top-4 pick instead of the 3.7% they got finishing 10th.

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

While New Orleans won a tiebreaker with Dallas for the 7th-best lottery odds, Milwaukee's chance of getting a top-4 pick only rose about half a percent. BUT their chance of drafting before 10th (their lottery position) rose 3.2%. They now have an 11% chance of picking 8th or 9th.

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

For what it's worth, this is what the Bucks' odds would have been had they finished ninth over the Bulls. Odds of moving into top 4 were still under 6% at best, and a decent chance they'd end up 10th anyway:

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The Bucks finished 10th in the lottery odds, but the Pelicans finished tied with the Mavs for 7th. A random tiebreaker will occur to determine who is 7th and who is 8th. Based on those outcomes, here are the chances for the Bucks to pick at any given lottery spot:

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

I’m positive there will be. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a two-way conversion that hasn’t had one in the second year.

Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Doc just said he believes Giannis hyperextended his knee coming down from his third quarter dunk over Jay Huff.

Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Doc: Giannis in, Portis in, Turner in, Dieng out

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

As of right now, here are the true lottery odds for the Bucks (10th in the lotto standings), factoring in Pelicans swap for picks 1–14, plus listed odds in parentheses:

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

I’ve never seen a ratio like this for an article from such a prestigious source.

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

With the Mavs' loss tonight, the Pelicans are now a half game behind them for 7th in the lottery standings. If the Bulls win tonight, the now 27-37 Bucks would be a half game ahead of Chicago for 9th. With the swap factored in, here are the odds of where the Bucks could draft:

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

Have his players like him and buy into his system

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

But it did keep happening

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

I should post this over here too. Giannis was at a sports collectibles convention on Saturday. Discussing how he had to shorten his autograph because he wanted to have a 15–20 year career. Then, someone shouts: "all in Milwaukee!" Giannis, with a wink and smile: "all in Milwaukee, baby."

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

If Milwaukee wants to use their entire $14.1 MLE plus sign Rollins and Sims on new contracts at anything above one-year vet minimums, they'll need to cut payroll. $18.8m in space beneath their hard cap right now: $14.1m plus two vet mins at $2.3m would be just $130k clear of it.

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Ahead of free agency beginning on Monday, Bucks big man and unrestricted free agent Bobby Portis was scheduled to speak to media this afternoon in Milwaukee at the USA Fencing Summer Nationals, which start tomorrow at the Baird Center. However, he was a late cancellation.

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Van Fayaz @vanfayaz.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

The Bucks have a $7.2m trade exception this offseason, so they can acquire someone making up to that much without sending out a player in return. Here's how that works, plus some candidates, including an old friend: www.brewhoop.com/2025/6/26/24...

brewhoop.com

11 players the Bucks could acquire with their trade exception this offseason

Milwaukee can acquire a player making up to $7.2m without giving back a player in return

Is the Democratic Party one of the ones that should be torn down?

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You don’t have to merely gently nudge, but you also don’t have to launch full-throated attacks on the Democratic Party and create a discourse that drives more people away from the more helpful politicians in this country. Find a middle ground.

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Accountability and criticism can be accomplished while not tearing them down. It’s called constructive criticism.

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I never said you have to praise them. You can hold the Dems accountable without being part of a movement that discredits the Dems because they’re not woke enough, and actively harms them like my people did in Michigan.

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You brought up perfection, that’s what you expect. You only criticize. You’re only negative. That doesn’t help at anything at all. Lobbing insults at people doesn’t get them to change, it just entrenches them further.

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But your criticisms do nothing but harm the reputation of the only major party in this country who is actually on the side of the oppressed.

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There you go again, blaming a brown person for how they’re treating other brown people. Same thing you tried to do to me earlier.

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Yes because arguing and criticizing someone always gets them to change their mind. Not diplomacy. You fire bullets instead of going to the negotiating table. It’s a warlike mentality.

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Seems to me that you expect perfection out of every politician you vote for because you never say anything positive about them.

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Stay in denial. Keep trying to control the thoughts and feelings of brown people. It’ll work someday I’m sure. Not on this brown person.

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Except you NEVER do that when you say “the democrats” which to you, today, has meant four different groups at various times whenever it’s convenient for you: voters, card-carrying members like me, elected democratic politicians, and finally its leadership.

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Chuck Schumer is not the enemy and you’re fighting him instead of fighting the shitbag and the party who started our involvement in this war. Stop telling me you’re on my side. You’re not fighting Trump.

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You were always a racist and a misogynist, it’s true.

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She was never a police officer. She never supported a war in the Middle East because she doesn’t control what Israel does. She never supported genocide because Israel isn’t committing one there, unless they’re also committing one in Iran. Which you people aren’t saying. You can’t have it both was.

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You need to realize that when you criticize someone who we voted for as being someone morally deficient, you’re in turn calling us that too. Like if you criticize Trump for something amoral, you aren’t criticizing the people who voted for him one iota? Not at all?

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Backpedal some more. You’ve done it all day.

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You thinking that Harris is still a shitbag when she campaigned on women’s rights and LGBTQ rights while the other campaigned against them and actively harms them is just code for “I don’t like a brown woman running this country.”

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When you said I was an establishment democrat because I didn’t know anything about non-establishment democrats. Who you can’t even define.

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So what is her career? Being a receptionist?

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