iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 14h

For global health and development, the model’s median is $540 million by the end of 2027. Its central 80% range is $160 million–$2.8 billion. We reviewed this estimate on Oct 1; the numbers are unchanged.

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 14h

GiveWell says its 2026 grantmaking may approach or exceed $1B. This updates the existing-funder bridge from more than $400M to more than $600M directed; it is not newly liquid AI wealth.

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 14h

One recent development: GiveWell reports more than $600M directed in 2026

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 14h

For AI safety, effective altruism, and related work, the model’s median is $830 million by the end of 2027. Its central 80% range is $160 million–$3.0 billion. We reviewed this estimate on Oct 1; the numbers are unchanged.

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 14h

We’ve updated our tracker of how much AI-linked wealth may reach philanthropy by the end of 2027. One estimate changed this time; the broader AI safety and effective altruism estimate did not. Here’s the short version:

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

BTW that was an AI-generated 'remember we evaluated this' post. But I'm glad it was helpful. Following up just to make it clear that there's a human on the other end of this (this is David Reinstein, co-director and founder)

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Note -- these are AI generated updates, but I (David) am keeping tabs on it

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "The Returns to Science In the Presence of Technological Risks" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.dfe6c370

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "The Returns to Science In the Presence of Technological Risks" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.dfe6c370

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "The Effect of Public Science on Corporate R&D" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.50ee8ef7

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

For global health and development, the model’s median is $540 million by the end of 2027. Its central 80% range is $160 million–$2.8 billion. We reviewed this estimate on Sep 21; the numbers are unchanged.

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The confirmed three-year portfolio spans South and Southeast Asia and East Africa. It is a named commitment, not a cash-paid total; the public announcement does not specify the share disbursed by end-2027.

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

One recent development: OpenAI Foundation commits $60M to AI forecasting for smallholder farmers

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

210

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

And we will also accept anonymous compliments and praise, that's also okay.

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Also looking for ways to actually _reward_ anonymous feedback ... more on this later.

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The Unjournal welcomes critique, questions and suggestions from our team, evaluators and anyone else. Share anonymously: dlvr.it/TVgthG We may respond publicly after checking for identifying details. Tick “keep private” to opt out.

dlvr.it

Feedback — The Unjournal

210

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Legalizing Entrepreneurship" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.0168f4c0

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

New Unjournal evaluation — "The Value of Existential Risk Mitigation" Ratings + assessment: unjournal.pubpub.org/pub/evalsumval… #Economics

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Legalizing Entrepreneurship" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.0168f4c0

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

GH&D tracker: median $0.54B (80% $0.16B–$2.8B). Review: adjusted. Named GH&D commitments: $0.31B; GiveWell reports over $0.40B from existing funders. News: OpenAI Foundation's $60M smallholder-farmer forecasting port… uj-ai-wealth-philanthropy-steelman.…

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

AI-wealth tracker (2026-09-11): AIS/EA end-2027 disbursement median $0.83B (80% interval $0.16B–$3.0B). Review: reviewed; unchanged. Named public commitments: $0.86B. News: OpenAI Foundation's $60M smallholder-farmer forecasting portfo… uj-ai-wealth-philanthropy-steelman.…

110

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "Biodiversity risk" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.a8ca23ad

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Unjournal evaluated "A Welfare Analysis of Policies Impacting Climate Change" — see our assessment: doi.org/10.21428/d28e8e57.168646d1

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

AI-governance-relevant work includes @noemidreksler.bsky.social, Jonas Schuett et al. on lab safety practices; Joshua Schwartz & @michaelhorowitz.bsky.social on automated nuclear systems; @ankareuel.bsky.social et al. on gaps in social-impact evaluation. @csetgeorgetown.bsky.social

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Other candidates cover cross-country effects on labor demand (Jingyun Huang, Yan Liu, He Wang & Shu Yu), AI x public finance (@akorinek.bsky.social & Lee Lockwood), Adoption of genAI across occupations/tasks (Bick, Blandin & Deming). @ilo.org @oecdsocial.bsky.social

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Considering AI-relevant work (as a start), higher-ranked candidates include: “AI Premium” by @nicolaborri.bsky.social, Tsyvinski & Yukun Liu; “Canaries in the Gold Mine” by Babina, Alex He & Renhao Jiang; "... Early Labor Market Transformation..." by @andershumlum.bsky.social & Vestergaard.

100

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Building & testing a tool 1. to help prioritize research with global impact potential, & 2. to identify work The Unjournal should consider for public evaluation. Includes reasoning & multiple categories. Scores *don't* indicate research quality. uj-prioritization-dashboard.netlify.app

uj-prioritization-dashboard.netlify.app

Research candidates for evaluation - The Unjournal

110

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The 'review' ('evaluations') is has been our main project -- see our output at unjournal.pubpub.org. And, naturally, we're exploring the role of AI in this process as well (see llm-uj-research-eval-project.netlify.app for a work-in-progress).

unjournal.pubpub.org

The Unjournal

The Unjournal PubPub community: journal-independent evaluation of impactful work in economics, policy, and social science

000

The Unjournal (Unjournal.org) @unjournal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The "ratings" on that page focus on the research potential for impact and influence; they are not meant to judge the quality or credibility of the research itself. -->

unjournal.pubpub.org

The Unjournal

The Unjournal PubPub community: journal-independent evaluation of impactful work in economics, policy, and social science

100