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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

The Wall Street Journal noted that the yield spread between the 2-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond has steepened to the widest point in several years.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Small options traders are less of a force than they were 4 years ago.Still, they've been pushing their bullish bets...just not to the degree they were a few years ago.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

For the first time since 2021, every single MSCI Asia-Pacific country index is now trading above its 200-day average. When over 95% of Asia-Pacific countries exceeded their long-term average, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index has historically delivered an impressive 29% annualized return.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Human nature never changes. When bad economic news arises, investors become more fearful as things worsen. Two little-known datasets have highlighted significant recent concerns regarding monetary policy and inflation. According to Jay kaeppel,history suggests that this is a good thing.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

One stock not among the recent surge is Berkshire Hathaway. A retiring legend and record cash balance during a momentum market are deadly for returns.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

The technology sector has roared higher following an early-year sell-off. Oversold signals in April followed by recent continuation signals suggest the rally could continue longer than many may suspect according to Jay kaeppel

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

Following a four-day pullback, buyers regained control, propelling the S&P 500 to fresh record territory on Tuesday. Market breadth was equally impressive, as NYSE advancers outpaced decliners by a 4-to-1 margin in two of the last seven sessions.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

Small business owners are feeling better. For the first time in several months, the NFIB survey popped above 100. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, a reading above 100 is not necessarily a great sign.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

The Nasdaq 100 just did something it's never done before. Not in a good way.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

Bitcoin tends to react well when trend, sentiment, and breadth is supportive. A simple Triple 40 system invests when bitcoin is above its 40-day average, at least 40% of traders are bullish, and 40% of cryptocurrencies are in uptrends.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

The S&P 500 just exhibited a rare pattern by rising for at least four consecutive days to a record high, only to follow that with four straight days of losses.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

Macro conditions in the U.S. are not great. Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Jay kaeppel highlighted in a recent post that price, cyclical, and seasonal factors are aligning favorably for commodities, creating a potential opportunity for investors in commodity ETFs.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Every S&P 500 sector except health care has closed above its 200-day moving average. This kind of alignment is particularly encouraging after a period when none of the sectors were trading above their 200-day averages.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

On Monday, the world's most benchmarked index notched its sixth consecutive record high, completing the second-fastest rebound from a six-month low to this many all-time highs, trailing only 1961.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Volatility is ebbing fast. Watching how much the VIX moves lets us know how comfortable traders are with their beliefs.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Amid the fanfare surrounding the S&P 500's 12th record high in 2025, a more consequential signal emerged beneath the surface, one that has often preceded exceptional returns for the world's most benchmarked index.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

The case for a sustained rally in stocks got an additional boost when over 80% of country indexes displayed a positive 252-day rate-of-change, the first such occurrence in more than a year.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 25/07/2025

Whether the bond market is smarter than the stock market is debatable. Regardless, bond traders are not worried about defaults. And that has been a very good thing for the S&P 500. Watch out if the index climbs above its 50-day moving average.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

When you push a ball deep underwater, it doesn't just float back - it surges. Tech investors know the feeling. After the S&P 500 technology sector cycled from at least 15% below its 200-day average to 15% above it, those stocks displayed solid consistency and returns over the following year.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

So far this year, the cumulative gain by buying a down day in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and holding it only for the next session is +29%. That's second only to 2020 and ahead of the year 2000. The S&P 500's cumulative +18% return is tied for the 4th-highest since 1928.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/07/2025

Thanks to a marked improvement in alternative managers, the S&P 1500 Asset Management group triggered a new trend score buy signal 🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 18 "Alternative asset managers regain leadership status”: users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

Metals have been showing significant strength. While Jay kaeppel is not prone to standing in the way of a powerful advance, he felt compelled to point out some contrarian signals in a recent post.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

There's always something to complain about. According to financial media, the rally isn't being led by what it should be because discretionary and small-cap stocks are lagging badly. After similar conditions since 1926, only one instance (in 1990) preceded a meaningful downturn in stocks.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

A few weeks ago, I published a report highlighting that both the S&P 500 Technology sector and the Nasdaq 100 had triggered deviation-from-trend signals, pointing to a favorable shift in price momentum.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

During the depths of the Liberation Day meltdown, the S&P 500 Technology sector experienced severe internal damage, with 91% of its constituents falling into a bear market, defined as a decline of 20% or more from a 252-day high.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

The S&P 500 experienced a "Golden Cross" on July 1st. Does it matter? Jay Kaeppel objectively analyzed the data in a recent note to answer the question. 🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jay Kaeppel's Jul 3 "IS the SPX Golden Cross bullish for stocks?": users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppe...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Stocks are on the cusp of a major sell signal. Apparently. A recent Bloomberg article suggested selling stocks when more than 88% of country indices are trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

For the 29th time since 1933, the percentage of cyclical sub-industry groups with a positive one-year return cycled from below 20% to above 80%. When at least 80% of cyclical groups show positive momentum, the S&P 500 has historically produced an annualized return of 17%.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

The S&P 500 has poked above its upper Bollinger Band almost every day for over a week, all while trading at record highs. Since 1962, this has been a mixed sign for the index.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/07/2025

Some of the better-performing markets have been overseas - South Korea particularly. Korea is closely tied to U.S. technology companies, and when the KOSPI's 50-day rate of change cycled from below zero to above +30%, the Nasdaq 100 suffered only a single outright failure in the months ahead.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

Many people assume that geopolitics and economic growth are the primary drivers of the price of gasoline. As Jay kaeppel detailed in a recent note, a simple two-factor model may do a much better job of identifying the trend.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

On Friday, three of the most cyclical sectors hit record highs: technology, industrials, and financials. Outside of the three noted above, the median drawdown across all other sectors was -8.7%.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

The S&P 500 Technology sector transitioned from a 1-year low to a 1-year high in just 52 sessions, marking the second-fastest rebound on record, surpassed only by a recovery in 1978.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

Last week, the S&P 500's trend score increased to eight, a level associated with annualized returns of 15.9% since 1928, as illustrated in the chart below. This improvement in trend indicators generated a new signal for a member in the TCTM Composite Confirmation Model.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

The so-called "Summer Rally" period approaches. Does it really matter? In a recent note, Jay Kaeppel examined the history of this period and how it has performed relative to the rest of the summer months. Several long-term tendencies emerged.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Financials are regaining momentum, with notable strength emerging in investment banks, brokerages, and exchange stocks. This resurgence reflects an improvement in sentiment and activity within the capital markets, a key area of the financial sector that often signals broader market health.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Index option trader action recently revealed an important clue for the broader stock market. In a recent piece, @jaykaeppel highlighted the details and revealed a step-by-step guide for turning this signal into a system in our Backtest Engine 2.0.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Crude's bearish outside reversal was one for the history books. There have only been a handful of times the contract rallied more than +3% intraday, only to close more than -5% below its prior close.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Silver is back on traders' radars after being mostly an afterthought thanks to gold's impressive run. The SentimenTrader Optimism Index for silver just exceeded 83, which is the highest level in nearly 15 years.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

In my report on Tuesday, I highlighted a resurgence in favorable absolute and relative trends among stocks within the AI ecosystem, signaling renewed leadership in this critical growth theme.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Several "risk on" indicators have confirmed that investors have moved on from tariff fears and are back in buying mode. As detailed in a recent note by Jay Kaeppel,this is typically a favorable sign for stocks as we advance.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Inflation and rising interest rates remain commonly voiced concerns. However, according to a recent note from Jay Kaeppel on "real yields," those fears may be overblown. 🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jay Kaeppel's Jun 13 article "Yields, inflation and the S&P 500": users.sentimentrader.com/lo...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

Growth has emerged as the dominant style factor across all market capitalizations, with a resurgence fueled mainly by the technology sector, particularly companies within the expanding AI ecosystem.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

Geopolitics have traders streaming back into energy stocks. After fewer than 5% of them were trading above their 50-day averages in April, more than 95% have climbed above. How traders reacted after similar cycles said a lot about long-term potential.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

Asset allocation is the most important factor for the average investor. And for one of the few times in 20 years, there is now a major competing asset.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

For only the 16th time since 1973, the Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 10% over five months. Comparable signals saw near-term downside follow-through for the DXY before staging a multi-month rally.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

If you think the stock market may pull back, our senior analyst Jay Kaeppel highlighted in a recent note four sectors that are showing relative weakness as they enter unfavorable seasonal periods.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

After losing ground for three straight months, the S&P 500 registered a gain of more than 5% in May 2025. According to a recent note from @jaykaeppel, market history suggests this may be a positive sign for stocks in the year ahead.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

Three of the "Big Four" have come storming back. This recovery ranks among the quickest and most substantial from a drawdown of at least -15% across the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and Nasdaq Composite. The Nasdaq averaged a +21% return six months later with a 100% win rate (small sample, though).

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