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I’m not gonna sit here and pretend that Troy Jackson is the smoothest talker, but after watching several clips of the Maine Senate debate tonight, I have to say that it looked like he really did some damage to Susan Collins tonight.

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Cait Conley @caitfornewyork.bsky.social · 2h

I did not expect the best troll of Zach Lahn in the #IAGov race to come from Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly.

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Reposted by TrumpsTaxes

It was such an honor to have the incredible @gabbygiffords.bsky.social in Nyack today for an important discussion on public safety and commonsense gun safety. Thank you to Joe Rand, Detective Andre Riobe, and Leslie Hansen-Weiden of @momsdemandaction.org for being part of the conversation.

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The humor cuts in several directions in that image.

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Based on that data, not sure. Based on this data yes: bsky.app/profile/trum...

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90for90.bsky.social @90for90.bsky.social · 4h

Interesting. Mail ballots down in a major Ohio county, but early in-person voting is up. Similar situation in other counties. Switch from mail to early in-person after Trump’s post office antics?

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Reposted by TrumpsTaxes

🚨That’s a very significant sample size of ‘likely voters’ with a low margin of error. “3,813 Florida Likely Voters were polled between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5. The margin of error is ±2.7%.”

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 4h

Imagine seeing this one year ago...

Senate toss-up seats:

AK
IA
KS
ME
MI
OH
TX

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Not to be overlooked, but Crystal Ball also got in some ratings changes today. Alaska as Lean D just feels crazy.

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Talarico again at 50, numbers still not budging after the GOP money dump, and Hinojosa again neck-and-neck with Abbott.

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Victor Marx is an underrated contender for the worst top-of-the-ticket GOP nominee in the country. This guy might end up costing Republicans all 4 of their House GOP seats in Colorado. #COGov

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Five times! bsky.app/profile/tbon...

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NJ and VA are fun comparisons to make thanks to 2025. But if you look at an apples-to-apples comparison to 2022 across early voting, you also see Dem gains. I think it’s a tougher comparison though simply because voting habits have changed so much in 4 years. But a data point nonetheless.

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Two things we know about Cook: 1. They can be overly cautious. 2. They often have campaign sources who provide behind-the-scenes information If they are listing Kansas as a tossup, it is the real deal.

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Probably not. Not sure they even had early voting back then.

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Good point here in that the models for Virginia early voting are very similar to what we’re seeing in New Jersey. And NJ and VA had very similar outcomes in 2025. bsky.app/profile/hyde...

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Another Dem enthusiasm data point. Dem 2026 early vote is stronger than Dem 2025 early vote in raw votes, margin, and return rate. GOP early vote is worse.

New Jersey

2025 / 28 days out
🔵 Democratic 122,543 (62.7%) -> D+39
🔴 Republican 45,474 (23.3%)
Return rate: 🔴 25.7% 🔵 23.5%

2026 / 28 days out
🔵 Democratic 138,669 (67.2%) -> D+48
🔴 Republican 40,083 (19.4%)
Return rate: 🔵 26.9% 🔴 23.6%

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 9h

More GOP money moves. They had hoped to make Dem-held #NY03 competitive. But now they are taking some of that money and switching to #NJ07 (same media market). And #NY17 might be next.

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It could mean that they are shy GOP voters at a time when the GOP is getting blame for all of our affordability ills. It could also mean that they are just tuning out and don't plan on voting. Who knows? Either way, don't assume victory in tougher red states just because polling looks good.

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 9h

I won't copy/paste the tweets here, but there is discussion on Election Twitter today amongst pollsters and analysts suggesting that polls may be problematic because rural Rs are just not responding to polling attempts. Something to consider when reviewing polls in states with big rural areas.

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 11h

I think when his report says September it just means that’s when HE is reporting it, and this is actually for August…or just since his last report. I think?

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 11h

Whoa. Kansas Democratic voter registrations were more than 17X that of Kansas Republican voter registrations last month.

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 13h

Beyond governance, a big benefit of winning Sen/Gov races in TX/IA/OH/AK/NC/GA/KS is that having statewide-elected Ds brings more $$$ into the state parties, which means more infrastructure, a bigger bench...and a better chance of winning ECVs. We will feel the impact of this election for a decade.

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 22h

This is a 45-minute drive.

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 23h

👀 Check out this brief thread on Hispanic turnout in the early vote so far in VA and MN…and especially in Minneapolis.

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Some of these races will be decided by thousands of votes, some will be decided by hundreds of votes, some will be decided by dozens of votes, and it wouldn't surprise me if one was decided by less than 10 votes. Fight for every last ballot.

cook political report showing 22 toss up races, 10 Lean R races, and 19 Likely R races.

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Trump says he’ll pay for taxpayer-funded ads praising him after backlash

I'll believe it when the check clears, but if true then the internal numbers must've been brutal for him to back down. Bonus: Any money he uses from his MAGA Inc. super PAC for these dopey ads is money that he won't be using to help Republicans in November. www.politico.com/news/2026/10...

politico.com

After more than a week of bipartisan criticism over ads promoting his presidency with taxpayer money, Trump said he or his MAGA Inc. super PAC would cover the cost.

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I agree. If polls are right, independents should be more aligned with Ds than Rs this year.

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I think we all need to internalize this analysis. Polling indicates that the difference between a blue wave and a blue tsunami may be determined by turnout of voters under 30. It is absolutely critical that we get younger Gen Z folks out to the polls. We have 1 month to make that happen.

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I don't know, this is just being reported out over on an X account, and they haven't posted anything about Texas.

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And now here comes Pennsylvania…where Ds more than tripled Rs in voter registration last month.

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Hell, even in states like Oklahoma and Idaho, Dems are holding their own. Not expecting any/many miracles there, but it could lend further support to the idea that we may be headed for an historic election.

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As I posted the other day, in Florida Ds out-registered Rs for the first time in 5 years. bsky.app/profile/trum...

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In New Hampshire, not only did Ds add 9K voters, Rs actually LOST 1K voters. Some are saying #NHSen is suddenly competitive for Rs, but I’m not certain.

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In Kansas, Ds just about doubled Rs in voter registration, which aligns with everything else we’re seeing and hearing about #KSSen.

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In Iowa, Ds tripled Rs in voter registration last month. Encouraging sign for what is arguably the epicenter of the 2026 midterms.

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Ds registered 6x the amount of voters as Rs did in Colorado last month. I still maintain that Dems could walk away with all 8 House seats given the environment and the poor GOP candidate quality in the state.

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Reposted by TrumpsTaxes

Not a state we tend to watch closely, but Ds actually outregistered Rs in Kentucky last month. Could be a sign that we have the wind at our backs in tough seats like #KY06.

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Next up we have Nevada, home to a tight Governor’s race and a potentially shocking House pickup in #NV02. Ds more than doubled Rs in voter registration.

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Let’s look at some more voter registrarion data for the month of September. These numbers could be read as Dem enthusiasm tea leaves. Let’s start with North Carolina where Ds almost quadrupled Rs.

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Watch this clip and be reminded that AES is a real political talent.

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Another one? bsky.app/profile/trum...

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That’s two GOP-held Lean D seats that are in the process of being triaged by Republicans today: #NE02 and #CA48

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That would be him, yes lol

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