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Since late March, the US500 is up 15.4%, the broader NYSE Composite just 5.5%. A small sample, but extremely rare. *Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 1h

This Has Only Happened Twice Before: 1929 and 1999 The US500 trades at record highs, yet the NYSE recently saw twice as many new 52-week lows as new highs. According to SentimenTrader, this only happened in 1929 and 1999. Both times, markets fell sharply 6 to 9 months later.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 1h

The trigger: in Sunday's presidential election, Flávio Bolsonaro surprisingly finished ahead of President Lula, with 47.0% vs. 45.2%. Markets see his platform as more fiscally restrictive. The runoff follows on Oct 25. Morgan Stanley upgraded Brazilian stocks to Overweight.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 1h

Brazil Just Had Its Biggest Market Day in Years The Ibovespa jumped 7.7% to a record 206,912, its first close above 200,000 ever. The $EWZ ETF now trades at 43.18, well above its April high near 42.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 2h

7,850: call resistance / 0DTE gamma wall 7,763: put support 0DTE 7,573: 20-week moving average 7,500: put support If 7,763 fails, the next support sits at the 20-week average near 7,570. *Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 2h

$US500 Hit the 7,850 Wall and Got Rejected The $US500 pushed up to the call resistance / 0DTE gamma wall at 7,850 and reversed immediately. Now it trades at 7,767, down 0.77%, sitting right on the 0DTE put support at 7,763. Key levels:

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 3h

Since the April low, every pullback in the $US500 has held above the 20-week moving average, currently at 7,590. Now the index trades at a new record of 7,820. The midterms take place on Nov 3. *Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 3h

Why Mid-October Matters in Midterm Years In midterm election years, volatility often peaks in mid-October and then fades into the November elections.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 8h

After softer jobs and inflation data, markets now see an October hike as unlikely, with roughly 80% pricing in no change. The next decision follows on Oct 27 to 28. Minutes release: today at 14:00 ET.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 8h

That was the meeting where the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. Since then, President Trump has called the board "very hostile" and demanded rates of 1% "or less".

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 8h

All Eyes on the Fed Minutes Tonight US futures are slightly lower after record closes in the US500 and Nasdaq, as investors wait for the minutes of the Fed's September meeting.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 11h

The market is no longer just reacting to short-term events, it is pricing in lasting higher oil prices. Together with surging shipping costs, that points to persistent inflation pressure.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 11h

The Oil Market Is Pricing In Higher Prices for Years WTI futures for December 2027 just hit a record high of 76.38, breaking above the previous highs near 75 from May and June. In December 2025, the same contract was still trading around 57, a gain of roughly 34%.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 21h

Scenario 2: Bond volatility cools, and a catch-up rally in individual stocks lifts both breadth and the index. The key to watch: the MOVE Index and the 10-year yield. Which scenario do you see playing out? Scenario 1 or 2?

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 21h

Morgan Stanley: The Market Is at a Crossroads Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees a 12% gap between index prices and market breadth. That gap has to close, one way or another. Scenario 1: Treasury volatility stays high, and the $US500 could drop to 7,300 within a month before rebounding.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 23h

A handful of mega caps carry the index. Most stocks don't.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 23h

The Index Is Up. Your Portfolio Isn't? You are not alone. The $US500 trades near its record high, but the average stock tells a different story. As of late September, 59% of US500 stocks were at least 20% below their all-time highs. The equal-weight index ($RSP) is about 6% off its August peak.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Today: the $US500 trades near its record high, while $XLF has dropped about 8% since August. Banks sit at the heart of the economy. When they diverge from the index, it is worth watching. Not a crystal ball, but another piece of the puzzle. *Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The Chart Everyone Should Remember From 2007 In October 2007, the US500 made a higher high, while financials ($XLF) had already turned lower. What followed was the financial crisis, with $XLF falling around 78%.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The reason: the Iran war and the shuttle system around Hormuz tie up huge numbers of tankers, while buyers source oil from farther away. These costs end up at the pump. In parts of California, gas prices are already approaching $10 per gallon.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

On the Middle East to Asia route, tanker rates topped $1.2 million per day, up from roughly $30,000 in January. Freight now makes up about 27% of the delivered cost of oil, up from around 3%.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Oil's New Problem Isn't Supply. It's Shipping. Shipping a barrel of crude from West Africa to China on a supertanker now costs $27.22, up from under $10 in August. The year-to-date average is just $7.37.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Bonds vs. Stocks: One of Them Is Wrong The last two MOVE spikes, in April 2025 and March 2026, both came with a sharp selloff in the US500. Now the MOVE is spiking again, but the $US500 sits near its record high. Either bonds are wrong, or stocks haven't caught up yet.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

4,250: resistance 4,200: resistance 3,950 to 4,050: major support zone, tested several times since November Still, gold ETF inflows remain solid, likely supported by central bank and investor demand, even as rising yields act as a headwind.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

$Gold Losing Its Shine? $Gold trades at 4,122, after a series of lower highs since its February peak near 5,600. The latest rally got rejected at 4,200 to 4,250. $Silver is struggling as well. Key levels:

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Historically, yields and oil moved closely together, as in 2021 and 2022. Recently, yields keep rising while oil weakens. Divergences like this rarely last long. One side will have to give.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Yields and Oil Are Telling Different Stories The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.32%, its highest level in decades. Some even expect 6.8%, which would hit housing and refinancing hard.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A clean move above 760 would open the door for more upside. A rejection here could send price back toward 740. *Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

$QQQ Breaks Out. Now Comes the Real Test. $QQQ closed at a record 756.20, up 0.88%, and is already trading at 760 premarket, right at the key call resistance. Key levels: 760: call resistance 757.50: call resistance 0DTE / gamma wall 740: put support 0DTE 700: put support

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Key levels: 87,500: resistance, tested twice 85,000: support 82,300: major support

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Whales Are Pulling $Bitcoin Off Exchanges $Bitcoin keeps climbing in steps: consolidation, breakout, consolidation. Now it trades at 85,700, holding above the breakout level at 85,000. Whales are withdrawing coins from exchanges, a sign they plan to hold. ETF flows remain positive, led by $IBIT.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

In South Korea, the 3x leveraged ETF $KORU saw large dark pool trades right at resistance. After peaking near 63 in June, it crashed to around 12 in late July along with the KOSPI. Now it trades at 22.78, testing the 23 to 26 zone that rejected every rally since August.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Big Money Is Moving Across Borders Japanese funds are selling French government bonds and rotating their money elsewhere.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Bull case: after new highs, markets were higher one month later in about 90% of cases. Many indices posted monthly closes at all-time highs. Bear case: large trades in $QQQ and the US500 could also signal distribution. What do you think? Vote below.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

$US500 at 7,800: Breakout or False Break? The $US500 trades at 7,780, right below resistance at 7,800, a key options level that has capped every rally since August. Key levels: 7,800: resistance 7,700: support

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Estimates have been moving higher ahead of earnings season instead of being cut. That leaves companies with much less room for disappointment. Earnings season starts next week. *Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Wall Street Just Raised the Bar for Earnings Expectations heading into Q3 earnings season are unusually strong. $US500 earnings are now expected to grow 29.5%, with revenue growth of 12.3%. On June 30, the estimates were still 26.7% and 10.9%.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The question now is whether money finally starts moving beyond the biggest winners.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

That's a huge gap between the index and what's happening underneath it. Morgan Stanley believes this could set up a rotation into beaten-down areas of the market, particularly quality cyclicals and industrials, if bond yields stabilize.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

More Than Half the U.S. Stock Market Is Already in a Bear Market The major indices don't tell the full story. Around 54% of Russell 3000 stocks have fallen more than 20% from their June highs. Meanwhile, the $SPX remains close to record territory.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

His reasoning: major legislation almost always passes in the first two years of a presidency. After the midterms, political risk drops, and markets like that. The midterms take place on Nov 3. *Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

That window covers Q4 of the election year plus Q1 and Q2 of the following year. According to Fisher, it has never been negative since the Great Depression, with an average return of 19.8% over the last 100 years.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The 9 Best Months in Market History Could Start Soon Fisher Investments founder Ken Fisher says the period after the midterm elections has been the most consistently profitable 9 months in stock market history.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Some relief: the NYSE Advance-Decline Line bounced from oversold levels, and the equal-weight US500 ($RSP), regional banks ($KRE) and financials ($XLF) held at key support. Dead cat bounce or more? Price will tell.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Tech Up, Almost Everything Else Down 44.6% of tech stocks trade at 4-week highs. In consumer discretionary, it is only 8 to 12%. Over the last five sessions, only tech and energy carried the market. Big banks fell around 10% while the index stayed near its all-time high.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The Nasdaq is still tracking the "ChatGPT vs. Netscape" pattern from the late 1990s. The current run is about 4 years old since the 2022 low. Many bull markets end after 3 to 3.5 years, the historical average is around 5.5 years. We are in a gray zone.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Tech Hits New Highs: What History Says Not every tech stock is running, but the AI leaders are making new all-time highs. Over roughly the past decade, after tech broke to a new high following a sideways phase, the broader market was higher one month later in 100% of cases.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The index is tracked by 200+ investment products with over $800B in assets, which means new index buying ahead. We are still holding our $MRNA position, see our trade update here *Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.*

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

$MRNA Joins the US100 Moderna will be added to the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens on Oct 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery, which exits after its merger with Paramount Skydance. The stock is up more than sixfold this year, lifting its market cap to around $75B.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Since then, the stock has climbed from around 62.70 to 189.40, a move of more than 200% in 11 weeks. We took around 50% profit and are holding the rest risk free. Key levels 200: resistance, the 2023 highs 155 to 170: breakout zone, now support *Not financial advice, just sharing our own trade.*

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